OK, my bad.
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Valkyrie's Account Talk
- Thread starter tsptalk
- Start date
OK, my bad.
Valkyrie
Well-known member
Just about everything rallied on Tuesday.
But one thing didn't rally...
The Volatility Index ("VIX"), widely viewed as Wall Street's "fear gauge," dropped to its lowest level so far this year. At just over 13, the VIX is down 50% from where it was trading in early February.
The VIX closed right on its lower Bollinger Band this past Monday. That's a good sign that we're nearing the end of a "declining fear" cycle. Despite the VIX continuing even lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, a reversal is near.
And as we've seen so many times before, a rising VIX usually accompanies a falling stock market.
Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
and I follow TZA and FAZ and they didn't move much during the rally. the correction is here soon.
But one thing didn't rally...
The Volatility Index ("VIX"), widely viewed as Wall Street's "fear gauge," dropped to its lowest level so far this year. At just over 13, the VIX is down 50% from where it was trading in early February.
The VIX closed right on its lower Bollinger Band this past Monday. That's a good sign that we're nearing the end of a "declining fear" cycle. Despite the VIX continuing even lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, a reversal is near.
And as we've seen so many times before, a rising VIX usually accompanies a falling stock market.
Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
and I follow TZA and FAZ and they didn't move much during the rally. the correction is here soon.
Valkyrie
Well-known member
Big Science is broken
Then there is outright fraud. In a 2011 survey of 2,000 research psychologists, over half admitted to selectively reporting those experiments that gave the result they were after. The survey also concluded that around 10 percent of research psychologists have engaged in outright falsification of data, and more than half have engaged in "less brazen but still fraudulent behavior such as reporting that a result was statistically significant when it was not, or deciding between two different data analysis techniques after looking at the results of each and choosing the more favorable."
Then there is outright fraud. In a 2011 survey of 2,000 research psychologists, over half admitted to selectively reporting those experiments that gave the result they were after. The survey also concluded that around 10 percent of research psychologists have engaged in outright falsification of data, and more than half have engaged in "less brazen but still fraudulent behavior such as reporting that a result was statistically significant when it was not, or deciding between two different data analysis techniques after looking at the results of each and choosing the more favorable."
Valkyrie
Well-known member
Time to go all F and G? right now I'm 50 F and C
Get your affairs in order because this rare technical signal is flashing red - MarketWatch
Get your affairs in order because this rare technical signal is flashing red - MarketWatch
Valkyrie
Well-known member
2 to 3 day rally, then down?
Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
The Decline Isn't Over Yet
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, May
10, 2016
The S&P 500 may be forming a "Head and Shoulders Topping" pattern. This
is a bearish formation that often signals the reversal of a bullish trend to a
bearish one.
The left shoulder formed in late March when the index reached 2,075 and
then dropped back down to its previous low at 2,040. The subsequent rally to
2,105 formed the head of the pattern. And the decline over the past two weeks
has pushed the S&P 500 back down toward its previous low at 2,040, which is
critical support and the "neckline" for this pattern.
more
Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
The Decline Isn't Over Yet
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, May
10, 2016
The S&P 500 may be forming a "Head and Shoulders Topping" pattern. This
is a bearish formation that often signals the reversal of a bullish trend to a
bearish one.
The left shoulder formed in late March when the index reached 2,075 and
then dropped back down to its previous low at 2,040. The subsequent rally to
2,105 formed the head of the pattern. And the decline over the past two weeks
has pushed the S&P 500 back down toward its previous low at 2,040, which is
critical support and the "neckline" for this pattern.
more
Last edited by a moderator:
Maricar19
Active member
Valkyrie, which brokerage do you use?
Valkyrie
Well-known member
scottrade
Maricar19
Active member
Thanks ValK
Valkyrie
Well-known member
time for stocks to go up??
Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
The black line has crossed above the blue line just 26 times over the past 50
years. And when it has, the returns that followed were surprising. Specifically,
every single time it has happened, the S&P 500 was higher one year later.
The average one-year return was 16.6%.
Even the shorter-term results were impressive. Stocks were higher three
months and six months later 80% of the time... And the average returns after
three months and six months were 4% and 7.9%, respectively. (Note: The number of
occurrences isn't 26 because the latest crossovers won't have results until the
future.)
History doesn't predict the future. But in this case, the results have been
extremely consistent. A year from now, stocks will likely be higher.
If you've been holding a large amount of cash on the sidelines, now is the
time to start buying stocks.
Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
The black line has crossed above the blue line just 26 times over the past 50
years. And when it has, the returns that followed were surprising. Specifically,
every single time it has happened, the S&P 500 was higher one year later.
The average one-year return was 16.6%.
Even the shorter-term results were impressive. Stocks were higher three
months and six months later 80% of the time... And the average returns after
three months and six months were 4% and 7.9%, respectively. (Note: The number of
occurrences isn't 26 because the latest crossovers won't have results until the
future.)
History doesn't predict the future. But in this case, the results have been
extremely consistent. A year from now, stocks will likely be higher.
If you've been holding a large amount of cash on the sidelines, now is the
time to start buying stocks.
Valkyrie
Well-known member
Let me make it easy for u and so u can stop giving millions to your buddies and/or family members companies.
Let me rebalance my account every day AS I SEE FIT of my money not how u want to do it with your money losing L-funds except for your buddies and/or family members companies who manage the L-funds are making millions.
TSP board awards 4 contracts worth up to $4M a year - FederalNewsRadio.com
Let me rebalance my account every day AS I SEE FIT of my money not how u want to do it with your money losing L-funds except for your buddies and/or family members companies who manage the L-funds are making millions.
TSP board awards 4 contracts worth up to $4M a year - FederalNewsRadio.com
Valkyrie
Well-known member
Record lows in US bonds are signalling a reckoning with stocks - Yahoo Finance#
The last time we were in this situation was when Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998. Prior to that, there was the stock market boom of the mid-1980s, which culminated in a spectacular bust in October, 1987. Prior to the collapse, haven flows again favored the US and Japan, as emerging markets were under pressure.
Referencing these two precedents, it’s likely that the stock market will rally to new highs. But global risk aversion will eventually win out, culminating in a finale to this seven year secular bull market.
Credit leads equities. And in that regard, a final reckoning awaits investors, as the bond market makes the case for risk aversion. According to Yves Lamoureux, President of Lamoureux & Co., we are at the beginning of the third wave of a larger credit cycle—the final wave being much more volatile than the prior two.
Says, Lamoureux, “Much like 2007, credit risk moves in waves. Like 2007, we have felt the brunt of two consecutives waves. What really matters is the third one and where most people will hold on to their dear life.”
The last time we were in this situation was when Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998. Prior to that, there was the stock market boom of the mid-1980s, which culminated in a spectacular bust in October, 1987. Prior to the collapse, haven flows again favored the US and Japan, as emerging markets were under pressure.
Referencing these two precedents, it’s likely that the stock market will rally to new highs. But global risk aversion will eventually win out, culminating in a finale to this seven year secular bull market.
Credit leads equities. And in that regard, a final reckoning awaits investors, as the bond market makes the case for risk aversion. According to Yves Lamoureux, President of Lamoureux & Co., we are at the beginning of the third wave of a larger credit cycle—the final wave being much more volatile than the prior two.
Says, Lamoureux, “Much like 2007, credit risk moves in waves. Like 2007, we have felt the brunt of two consecutives waves. What really matters is the third one and where most people will hold on to their dear life.”
Valkyrie
Well-known member
btwn this report The Real Trouble Is Coming in a Few Weeks
and todays Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
[h=2]This 'Safe Haven'
Trade Is Getting Dangerous [/h][FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]By Jeff Clark [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Thursday, July 7, 2016 [/FONT]
its time to be in stocks COB and out next Friday. This also lines up with the seasonality chart.
S fund COB
and todays Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
[h=2]This 'Safe Haven'
Trade Is Getting Dangerous [/h][FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]By Jeff Clark [/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana, Geneva, sans-serif]Thursday, July 7, 2016 [/FONT]
its time to be in stocks COB and out next Friday. This also lines up with the seasonality chart.
S fund COB
Maricar19
Active member
That's interesting and scary to read.
OhWell
New member
WOW me too Valkyrie, this is my last day also! Are you excited but a little scared as well? Are you FERS or CSRS? I am CSRS and going to take at least a third of my TSP over to a TD Ameritrade self directed IRA. I desperately want to stock up on Gold and Silver miners. I believe I can double if not quadruple the money over the next 2 years. Already did it in my sons self directed IRA. Took about 16 months, turned 20K into 50K. Risky, which is the reason only one third will be transferred.
Maybe somebody will know how long I have to wait after today to make the transfer.
Maybe somebody will know how long I have to wait after today to make the transfer.
clester
Well-known member
Welcome to the retirement club!
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