Valkyrie's Account Talk

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Just about everything rallied on Tuesday.

But one thing didn't rally...

The Volatility Index ("VIX"), widely viewed as Wall Street's "fear gauge," dropped to its lowest level so far this year. At just over 13, the VIX is down 50% from where it was trading in early February.

The VIX closed right on its lower Bollinger Band this past Monday. That's a good sign that we're nearing the end of a "declining fear" cycle. Despite the VIX continuing even lower on Tuesday and Wednesday, a reversal is near.

And as we've seen so many times before, a rising VIX usually accompanies a falling stock market.

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks

and I follow TZA and FAZ and they didn't move much during the rally. the correction is here soon.
 
Big Science is broken

Then there is outright fraud. In a 2011 survey of 2,000 research psychologists, over half admitted to selectively reporting those experiments that gave the result they were after. The survey also concluded that around 10 percent of research psychologists have engaged in outright falsification of data, and more than half have engaged in "less brazen but still fraudulent behavior such as reporting that a result was statistically significant when it was not, or deciding between two different data analysis techniques after looking at the results of each and choosing the more favorable."
 
2 to 3 day rally, then down?

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks
The Decline Isn't Over Yet

By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, May
10, 2016
The S&P 500 may be forming a "Head and Shoulders Topping" pattern. This
is a bearish formation that often signals the reversal of a bullish trend to a
bearish one.

The left shoulder formed in late March when the index reached 2,075 and
then dropped back down to its previous low at 2,040. The subsequent rally to
2,105 formed the head of the pattern. And the decline over the past two weeks
has pushed the S&P 500 back down toward its previous low at 2,040, which is
critical support and the "neckline" for this pattern.

more
 
Last edited by a moderator:
FAZ and TZA both hit my target of $35. I believe the market correction will start now. Probably get back in the market in 1-2 weeks.
 
time for stocks to go up??

Growth Stock Wire | Stock Market Analysis, Market News & Stock Picks

The black line has crossed above the blue line just 26 times over the past 50
years. And when it has, the returns that followed were surprising. Specifically,
every single time it has happened, the S&P 500 was higher one year later.
The average one-year return was 16.6%.
Even the shorter-term results were impressive. Stocks were higher three
months and six months later 80% of the time... And the average returns after
three months and six months were 4% and 7.9%, respectively. (Note: The number of
occurrences isn't 26 because the latest crossovers won't have results until the
future.)
History doesn't predict the future. But in this case, the results have been
extremely consistent. A year from now, stocks will likely be higher.

If you've been holding a large amount of cash on the sidelines, now is the
time to start buying stocks.
 
Record lows in US bonds are signalling a reckoning with stocks - Yahoo Finance#

The last time we were in this situation was when Russia defaulted on its debt in 1998. Prior to that, there was the stock market boom of the mid-1980s, which culminated in a spectacular bust in October, 1987. Prior to the collapse, haven flows again favored the US and Japan, as emerging markets were under pressure.
Referencing these two precedents, it’s likely that the stock market will rally to new highs. But global risk aversion will eventually win out, culminating in a finale to this seven year secular bull market.
Credit leads equities. And in that regard, a final reckoning awaits investors, as the bond market makes the case for risk aversion. According to Yves Lamoureux, President of Lamoureux & Co., we are at the beginning of the third wave of a larger credit cycle—the final wave being much more volatile than the prior two.
Says, Lamoureux, “Much like 2007, credit risk moves in waves. Like 2007, we have felt the brunt of two consecutives waves. What really matters is the third one and where most people will hold on to their dear life.”
 
Today is my last day. After 33 yrs 2 months I am retired.
Suggestions will be greatly appreciated on what to do with my TSP. I do not need to take any money out, just need to make it grow until I do.

Thank you.
 
WOW me too Valkyrie, this is my last day also! Are you excited but a little scared as well? Are you FERS or CSRS? I am CSRS and going to take at least a third of my TSP over to a TD Ameritrade self directed IRA. I desperately want to stock up on Gold and Silver miners. I believe I can double if not quadruple the money over the next 2 years. Already did it in my sons self directed IRA. Took about 16 months, turned 20K into 50K. Risky, which is the reason only one third will be transferred.

Maybe somebody will know how long I have to wait after today to make the transfer.
 
Valkyrie said:
Today is my last day. After 33 yrs 2 months I am retired.
Suggestions will be greatly appreciated on what to do with my TSP. I do not need to take any money out, just need to make it grow until I do.

Thank you.
Click to expand...
Welcome to the retirement club!
 
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