userque's Account talk

[Stoplight]

I'm still deciding. It will be inline with the returns it generates by then and with other comparable? systems. It should pay for itself every month even with a minimal account balance. It'll cost more than a little bit however.:smile:

The site hosts thousands (17,000?) of systems--not just mine. Users can search, sort, compare, analyze, and subscribe to the system(s) of their choice. I suspect my system will be near the top of the leader board in a short while.

U,

Interesting ! Your system is kicking it on NUGT/DUST trades !!! SWEET !!!

Just wondering, though...

"...It will be inline with the returns it generates by then and with other comparable? systems. It should pay for itself every month even with a minimal account balance. It'll cost more than a little bit however.:smile:"

That last part scares me...

Sooo...assuming an average TSPTalk premium cost of $20/month, and your rate of return so far, are you saying your new premium service (not hosted on TSPTalk) will be in the range of ~$26 to $30/month ???

Keep killing it, Dude !!!


Stoplight...

 

[userque]

U,

Interesting ! Your system is kicking it on NUGT/DUST trades !!! SWEET !!!

Just wondering, though...

"...It will be inline with the returns it generates by then and with other comparable? systems. It should pay for itself every month even with a minimal account balance. It'll cost more than a little bit however.:smile:"

That last part scares me...

Sooo...assuming an average TSPTalk premium cost of $20/month, and your rate of return so far, are you saying your new premium service (not hosted on TSPTalk) will be in the range of ~$26 to $30/month ???

Keep killing it, Dude !!!


Stoplight...

First, thank you Sir.

That last part scares me...

Fear not. A real system makes enough profit to cover its costs.

Sooo...assuming an average TSPTalk premium cost of $20/month, and your rate of return so far, are you saying your new premium service (not hosted on TSPTalk) will be in the range of ~$26 to $30/month ???

For $20/mo. you get advice on up to 3 trades per month. I deal with up to 40 trades per month. Not to mention the obvious distinction of profit potential/realization.

EDIT: Never been a premium member, but I believe there are additional benefits to premium membership here other than just TSP fund signals.

EDIT: Never indicated a price range here for my future service. It will certainly be greater than $30 per month. Once I post the additional information shortly, you will be able to compare my system against a pool of 17,000 or so and decide for yourself whether mine, or another's, or any at all, is right for you.

Keep killing it, Dude !!!

Absolutely! Thanks again!

 

[Stoplight]

U.

Well, I could've used your latest annualized ROR (48387 %)...let's see... based on a TSP Premium cost, that would put your monthly fee at $9677 !!! :smile: I don't think you'll get too many subscribers at that rate !!!

Just sayin'...walk the fine line between cost vs benefit !!!


Stoplight...

 

[userque]

U.

Well, I could've used your latest annualized ROR (48387 %)...let's see... based on a TSP Premium cost, that would put your monthly fee at $9677 !!! :smile: I don't think you'll get too many subscribers at that rate !!!

Just sayin'...walk the fine line between cost vs benefit !!!


Stoplight...

LOL...I won't check your math, but I don't expect my initial fee to be above $200 per month. Thus far, my system is up a few thousand on 10G, in less than a month w/o margin. Like I said...it pays for itself unless you are starting with a very small account.

How much would you pay--would it be logical for you to pay--in order to receive $3000 every month? $30? $200? $1000? $2000....answer....all of the above.

 

[userque]

Stoplight,

I expect to offer a 30 day free trial for a short time. This is perfect for you. You can earn the next month's fee (after the 30 days) during the free trial. The following month, you should earn enough to cover the next upcoming fee...wash, rinse, repeat.

 

[jpcavin]

I read this entire thread twice and I did not see any mention of a discount for Cougars.... :flirt:

 

[userque]

I read this entire thread twice and I did not see any mention of a discount for Cougars.... :flirt:

I will look into offering discounts for tsptalk folks...I think I'll be able to do it manually...


...tough crowd.:blink:

 

[userque]

Greek crisis: Tsipras says 'no deal' with creditors, markets fall

via cnbc

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

do you have any backtested data/metrics to share on how well the system would have performed in past years?

 

[userque]

do you have any backtested data/metrics to share on how well the system would have performed in past years?

Excellent question!

No. The system is 'adaptive' and doesn't follow a set of traditional rules that allow for easy backtesting. Theoretically, backtesting is possible; but the system can require hours of runtime to generate a proper signal--making backtesting (along with actual live trading), with my current computing power, not an option.

Believe it or not, and fyi only: the system actually does perform backtesting while generating its signal. I've never heard of any other system doing this. For you or another to appreciate and/or rely on that statement, I would likely have to reveal more about the process than I am willing...so I understand...fyi only.

I am only left with the realistic option of forward testing to 'prove' the system...assuming my goal is to prove it works.

Basically, it works, imo. I post the results. Some have seen enough and follow it now. Others may want to claim it hasn't been long enough and would want to see it work for 5 years before trying it out or supporting the claim, 'it works!' I'm ok with either scenario.:smile:

 

[jpcavin]

Excellent question!

No. The system is 'adaptive' and doesn't follow a set of traditional rules that allow for easy backtesting. Theoretically, backtesting is possible; but the system can require hours of runtime to generate a proper signal--making backtesting (along with actual live trading), with my current computing power, not an option.

Believe it or not, and fyi only: the system actually does perform backtesting while generating its signal. I've never heard of any other system doing this. For you or another to appreciate and/or rely on that statement, I would likely have to reveal more about the process than I am willing...so I understand...fyi only.

I am only left with the realistic option of forward testing to 'prove' the system...assuming my goal is to prove it works.

Basically, it works, imo. I post the results. Some have seen enough and follow it now. Others may want to claim it hasn't been long enough and would want to see it work for 5 years before trying it out or supporting the claim, 'it works!' I'm ok with either scenario.:smile:

I'll be rich in 5 years. I don't really care that I "could have been' rich 5 years ago. :smile:

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

I'll be rich in 5 years. I don't really care that I "could have been' rich 5 years ago. :smile:

could be broke too... NUGT/DUST aren't for the faint of heart and it would be naive for anyone to think this is free money. NNs can be pretty magical in their abilities, but at the end of the day we are playing with very unpredictable and ever-changing global forces, regardless of how well something presently works.

 

[userque]

could be broke too... NUGT/DUST aren't for the faint of heart and it would be naive for anyone to think this is free money. NNs can be pretty magical in their abilities, but at the end of the day we are playing with very unpredictable and ever-changing global forces, regardless of how well something presently works.

Despite my avatar, I've stop using NN's long ago. My custom system is A.I. imo, but it was specifically discovered/designed to overcome some of the problems I found with NN's.

As always, proper money management is a must.

If a system does well for one month, there are those that will say, yeah...but you could go broke next month. If a system does well for one year, there are those that will say, yeah...but you could go broke next year.

This is why I will never force someone to trade how I trade.:blink:

 

[userque]

k,

Do you trade? If so, what? What system/techniques are you using? ....and how's that working out for you?

Care to post your trades real time?

[Wait for it....]

 

[jpcavin]

could be broke too... NUGT/DUST aren't for the faint of heart and it would be naive for anyone to think this is free money. NNs can be pretty magical in their abilities, but at the end of the day we are playing with very unpredictable and ever-changing global forces, regardless of how well something presently works.

I'm not sure what your point is about 'unpredictable and ever-changing global forces". Call me 'naive' but.....This 'unpredictability' could go either direction. To every positive, there is an equal negative....Yes, I could be broke too. But I am not going to sit around in 'fear' of these ever-changing global forces.....and it doesn't hurt to be optimistic. I don't really care if the system worked or didn't work in the past. How can you measure something that is constantly evolving anyway? I'll use it for as long the 'magical abilities' work for me. Nothing says I have to stick with it until I'm bankrupt.

 

[userque]

Haters gonna hate:

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

My apologies jpcavin, I wasn't specifically calling you naive. On Edit: Or any person specifically, for that matter.

This 'unpredictability' could go either direction. To every positive, there is an equal negative....Yes, I could be broke too.

I'd leave out the 'equal' part, but yes that's all I was saying... That this isn't free money and its not easy, otherwise everyone would be doing it. And again that's not directed to you, just a general comment to any reader.

 

[userque]

My apologies jpcavin, I wasn't specifically calling you naive.

I'd leave out the 'equal' part, but yes that's all I was saying... That this isn't free money and its not easy, otherwise everyone would be doing it. And again that's not directed to you, just a general comment to any reader.

No one said it was free money. No one said it was easy. No one said everyone is doing it. Your posts now, and in the past, speak loud and clearly.

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

My custom system is A.I. imo, but it was specifically discovered/designed to overcome some of the problems I found with NN's.

interesting... care to share what those problems were?

 

[userque]

interesting... care to share what those problems were?

Sure.

When NN's use a 'complete' data set, they tend towards the average (in the case of stocks). For example, if the NN is set up to predict the close, they tend to simply 'pick' the previous close. If the NN is set up to pick direction: up or down, they they to simply pick one or the other 'exclusively.' This is why so many NN's fail and everyone buying those NN packages aren't rich.

A workaround is to use a sliding window (of a month or so) approach. However, this means the NN doesn't have all available information (the crash of 2008, etc.).

But, the main problem is that NN's adjust weights based upon all data. Those weights remain the same. They assume the weights are constant. My system generates new 'weights' every run and uses all data.