userque & NUGT/DUST

[userque]

I'm always humored by when people, rather than simple ask for something, attempt to (sophomorically) manipulate instead.

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[tctang75]

Just a reminder why buying and holding NUGT or DUST is a bad idea and should only be traded...

1-year returns: NUGT -23%, DUST -87%.

I have tried for a long time to find shares of these to short, but they're never available. If you can short them both, you're golden.

But, alas, in fair disclosure, NUGT had a reverse split six months ago - and has been a 4-bagger for those buy and holders since!

 

[userque]

SIGNAL: DUST

04-22-16 ENTERED DUST AT 02.05
04-20-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 84.00---04-22-16 EXITED NUGT AT 81.44 5 of last 6 (83.33%) WIN
04-19-16 ENTERED DUST AT 01.87---04-20-16 EXITED DUST AT 02.01 5 wins in a row
04-06-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 59.15---04-19-16 EXITED NUGT AT 90.00 MAJOR upgrade, 4 winning trades in a row
03-30-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.14---04-06-16 EXITED DUST AT 03.16 MAJOR upgrade
03-28-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 54.25---03-30-16 EXITED NUGT AT 60.38
03-21-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.19---03-28-16 EXITED DUST AT 03.60
03-18-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 67.65---03-21-16 EXITED NUGT AT 65.20 optimized, fixed 1 bug
03-15-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.83---03-18-16 EXITED DUST AT 03.08 minor system update, fixed 2 bugs
03-14-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 54.37---03-15-16 EXITED NUGT AT 56.80
03-11-16 ENTERED DUST AT 03.61---03-14-16 EXITED DUST AT 04.04 major system update
02-29-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 58.25---03-11-16 EXITED NUGT AT 61.59
02-24-16 ENTERED DUST AT 04.51---02-29-16 EXITED DUST AT 04.22
02-04-16 ENTERED NUGT AT 36.78---02-24-16 EXITED NUGT AT 55.95 major system update
02-02-16 ENTERED DUST AT 13.05---02-04-16 EXITED DUST AT 08.77
01-26-16 ENTERED TNA  AT 44.93---01-27-16 EXITED TNA  AT 44.85
01-25-16 ENTERED TZA  AT 61.15---01-26-16 EXITED TZA  AT 60.51
01-20-16 ENTERED TNA  AT 42.98---01-25-16 EXITED TNA  AT 44.79

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

Status Update:

(Previous tests with TVIX and the single stock were preliminary. The tests only used parameters optimized for GDX, not themselves. A more thorough test would take much longer. The test was basically one of curiosity. Iow, it is still possible that they are tradable via the system.)

Currently, the GDX backtest using the whole team of 20 sub-algos has been running continually, nearly 24/7, for a few days now. It should probably complete tomorrow. Preliminary results show the team out-trades the single algo responsible for the previously posted backtest results.

After it finishes, I'll update the old charts/logs/etc I used to post.

If the current backtest is successful, and it appears it will be, I'll begin posting a regular blog on this site, but posting the algo signals to a different site (disclosed shortly after the successful test).

 

[userque]

Status Update:

As usual, earlier, I interrupt the backtesting to generate Monday's signal. But I couldn't help but to start analyzing the newly minted backtesting output.

Long story short: I found that using the top three models outperforms everything I tried thus far (including using only the top one model). Simply, the top three algos vote to generate the signal. A wisdom of the crowd type of thing. (By the way, individually, these three algos were neck to neck to neck in performance. A gap exists between them and all the other algos.

I'll have to monitor this going forward to see if there is a shift in the rankings, and to see if, eventually, some optimal 'look back' time frame is reached. Currently, using all of the backtesting data I have yields the best results.

 

[law87]

lol let's hope you dont over "improve" it.

 

[userque]

lol let's hope you dont over "improve" it.

VIDEO: A legitimate concern for any casual observer.
____________________________
Job 38:4-7 New King James Version (NKJV)

4 “Where were you when I laid the foundations of the earth? Tell Me, if you have understanding.
5 Who determined its measurements? Surely you know!Or who stretched the line upon it?
6 To what were its foundations fastened? Or who laid its cornerstone,
7 When the morning stars sang together, And all the sons of God shouted for joy?
____________________________

You first hear it as a baby:

"Be careful! Don't fall!"

You then hear it as a toddler first learning to run fast.

You then hear it as a kid, first learning to ride a bicycle.

You then hear it as a teenager/young adult, first learning to ride a bike (motorcycle).


My journey began long before I found this site.

I coded my first 'algo' in QBASIC in the 90's; no spreadsheet involved.

It took many years to learn the most important lesson in this game: PROPER backtesting.

Coding/Trading new ideas is 'fun.' backtesting wasn't. Backtesting wasn't fun for me until I realized just how important it really is. It is actually trading going forward; but starting in the past, which should be as exciting as trading in real time (minus the immediate profit/losses). In fact, it's more exciting to me now because it is like trading on steroids. I can 'trade' several days worth in a matter of minutes/hours.

I get to look into future, by looking into the past.
________________
Isaiah 46:10 New King James Version (NKJV)

10 Declaring the end from the beginning,
And from ancient times things that are not yet done,
________________

I've shelved many ideas, etc. because--though sounding 'good'--they didn't hunt.

Don't worry, I won't over "improve" it. I may weeble-wobble, but I won't fall down

Here's where I'm at now:

 

[konakathy]

That looks like my type of motorcycle !

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

That looks like my type of motorcycle !

Looked like you getting out of it at the end of the video

 

[konakathy]

Looked like you getting out of it at the end of the video

Flattery will get you everywhere! :smile:

 

[userque]

Status Update:

Conducted more tests confirming the efficacy of the three-panel algo signal. Made that subsystem more robust and adaptable.

Proper backtesting using the panel signal only goes back to about Feb. so far. Stopped backtesting the NUGT/DUST algo to catch up on the TSP model's backtesting. The TSP model takes much longer to backtest. I'll be doing it for a while before I have enough data to determine the best three algos. (Right now, they are mostly tied for first place.) While I don't know which three algos are the best yet in the TSP, ALL (of the current testing subset) issued a LONG signal for equities, for Monday.

This means they all agree that Monday will be the low price, from Monday looking forward about 9 days. But, they are not 100%, of course.

I'll start blogging here in a day or so; thereafter, I'll note where the NUGT/DUST algo signals will live going forward and how to access them.

__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ___________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

I've restructured the broadcasting of my trading signals. Details are in my blog post: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/blogs/userque/3707-introduction.html

Those receiving advance notice of the signals will receive a PM soon with more details.

 

[userque]

I'll will still be PM'ing tomorrow's signal, later today/tonight btw.

 

[userque]

Once I finish building the TSP back-test data, I'll see how the algo handles forex data.

 

[userque]

I wanted to note this for the public record as well:

The CkNN Algo received a major update 5-2-16. It should be even better able to zig and zag daily with the extremely volatile, but profitable, NUGT/DUST pair.

 

[userque]

Hope to have a new blog post by tomorrow, and another over the weekend. Been a little tied up lately.

 

[userque]

I'll now be working on a system to help determine position sizing. Kinda like a pro blackjack player counts cards and adjusts their bets accordingly. It should increase profits further if I get a working system together.

 

[userque]

I'll now be working on a system to help determine position sizing. Kinda like a pro blackjack player counts cards and adjusts their bets accordingly. It should increase profits further if I get a working system together.

Done.

Now I just have to do more backtesting of the main algo so that the new algo has as much data to work with as possible, as soon as possible. Basically:

CkNN analyzes price action, and 24-28 algos produce forecasts. A sub-algo within the CkNN system scores the algos and makes a final determination: NUGT, DUST, HOLD, or CASH. Now, a new sub-algo will monitor and analyze the main CkNN algo itself, it will determine how confident one should be in the forecast, from 0-100%. A position will be entered (or adjusted) based upon the new Position Sizer Algo. Simply:

The main algo guesses what the instrument will do. The PS guesses how correct the main algo will be. The main algo's job is to pick a direction. The PS will pick a size.

Until now, CkNN was ALWAYS in the market. ALWAYS at 100%.

I'll likely post additional information soon on my personal CkNN website. Non-clients are also welcome:
CkNN Algo

 

[userque]

Been busy lately with testing/improving the Algo; otherwise, I would've posted sooner.

Even with the big drop on Fed Wednesday, GDX remains within an orderly price channel; and has bounced off support. That said, the trend is still down:

VIDEOS:

Gold Extends Weekly Losing Run Amid ‘Hawkish’ Fed Commentary
Gold Extends Weekly Losing Run Amid

Technician: Gold’s going lower, and here’s how I’m going to cash in
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/19/technician-golds-going-lower-and-heres-how-im-going-to-cash-in.html

 

[userque]

VIDEO/IMAGE:

GDX remains in the downtrend. However, the lower trend line is angled slightly more bearishly than the upper. In my opinion, this indicates that bearishness is accelerating.

VIDEOS:

Ira Epstein--Metals:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIqWlIpYL_8

Why the Fed might not be able to put a stop to gold's run
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/05/23/ther...echnical-and-fundamental-traders-contend.html

Should Gold Investors be Sticking to the Sidelines? Peter Hug Comments
http://www.kitco.com/news/video/sho...-Sticking-to-the-Sidelines-Peter-Hug-Comments