Uptrend's Account Talk

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So far your System is doing a GREAT JOB !!


Today looks a little better -- in regards to C,S,I/F reversal

But the day is young and still nothing exceptionally impressive to me


I still see the bulk of this a 'Side Ways Action' (consolidation) and we have yet to see either a 500 point DROP or a 100 to 150 point GAIN.

 
Here is a chart update of SPX prices in the 60 minute timeframe:
View attachment 7102
Today a lot of technical damage was done to the chart. The SPX market dropped below the 50 ema (white line)and the support trendline coming up from the March low (pink line). Looks like a head and shoulders pattern developing as I have marked. The green lines are a broadening formation. The 10 and 20 ema's are also shown, with the 10 about ready to cross beneath the 20; also bearish. The resistance stopping point for a bounce looks to be near the 1020 area, which also could set up as the neckline. If 1020 holds, then the market would rise back up to the height of the left shoulder, or backtest the 20 ema currently at 1069. If this is the correct scenario, then the head and shoulders pattern measures 81 points, or 1020-81= 939 as a downside target. That is how far the March-June advance went, before stalling.

Short positions are favorable at this time. Have a happy day!
 
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No guesswork needed today. Trend is still down, and the trend is your friend. Just a little dead cat bounce. Also the dollar is down today, which is adding more fuel. But that too is temporary, as the USD longer trend is up for now.

Don't be fooled by a 3.5% GDP number for the summer quarter, backed by cash fro clunkers. The next 2 quarters should be far different.

I stand by my last post - looking for a reverse of more than one day at SPX 1020 area.
 
Uptrend,

I think your a thousand times smarter than me when it comes to stuff like this.

I'm pretty much totally a 'gut' buyer and seller...

..but it's hard to me to see how anyone could see as as being in a Down Trend

....I'd be willing to say we are in the midst of a 'substantial correction'... or 'consolidation'...

...but Market Activity has been overwhelmingly 'positive' since 3/09 and only those who refused to believe it lost out.

...I mainly did not bail this last time because we'd already been through enough days of 'settling' that days like today were inevitable...

....but we'll see how it plays out. My biggest concern is that when the Markets did rise and keep rising I would be stuck in F (G).
 
ExtremeWX said:
Have you guys/gals seen this.
http://www.timingpointprojector.com/
I stumbled upon it somewhere (link on a web site I think)...
Anyway, it looks interesting, just wondering about your thoughts.
Cheers,
Bryan
Click to expand...

Bryan -- Hi !! and thanks for the 'very cool' post.

I was immediately overwhelmed with the 'beauty' before the graph came up.

The image -- is a 'Fractal' - and this is 'Fractal Geometry' -- here I'm talking about the beautiful image that first appears.

'Fractal Geometry' is incredibly new to human understanding even though it is perhaps the most prominent part of our existence; not only in the Universe -- but in almost anything pertaining to how land and essentially all forms of life and many systems are designed. The more we honestly understand 'Fractal Geometry' and how it pertains to everything -- all the integate aspects by which the systems in our bodies are designed; the way leaves and the landscape and everything else is designed.....

..... this is how we all the more will be able to create the purest and most stable forms of life later on....

...how we will be able to build computers based on these designs that are lightyears ahead of anything we have now...

...this is by far one of my favorite aspects of life and the more you know the more appealing it is....

Now on to the Graph itself --- it's someone's projection and it really doesn't mean too much --- because Markets are simply not that predictable.
 
ExtremeWX said:
Have you guys/gals seen this.
http://www.timingpointprojector.com/
I stumbled upon it somewhere (link on a web site I think)...
Anyway, it looks interesting, just wondering about your thoughts.
Cheers,
Bryan
Click to expand...


I don't know..The presenter of these projected graphs basically CoveredHisAss with either outcome..kind of non committal IMO.:suspicious:

coin-flip1.jpg
 
Steadygain said:
Uptrend,


I'm pretty much totally a 'gut' buyer and seller...

..but it's hard to me to see how anyone could see as as being in a Down Trend

....
Click to expand...

On a short term basis, a period of a few days, not months, when we start to see lower lows and lower highs on the price chart, as the market swings back and forth, defines a downtrend. You must see a lower low, a lower high and a further lower lower low. The market has met that test. This is how I am using the word or concept.

The market shot up today and the SPX close was at 1066. However, it did not take out the next higher minor low at 1075. So, as long as we stay below that number, we will be looking for a reverse and a lower low below the last minor low at 1042. BTW, the 50 ema stands in the way at 1069 and more chart resistance at 1071. Other factors are pointing down. And the US dollar is starting to uptick again. IMO the market rolls over by the close tomorrow, or else justs stalls and rolls down Monday. IMo, watch from the sidelines.
 
Uptrend said:
On a short term basis, a period of a few days, not months, when we start to see lower lows and lower highs on the price chart, as the market swings back and forth, defines a downtrend. You must see a lower low, a lower high and a further lower lower low. The market has met that test. This is how I am using the word or concept.

The market shot up today and the SPX close was at 1066. However, it did not take out the next higher minor low at 1075. So, as long as we stay below that number, we will be looking for a reverse and a lower low below the last minor low at 1042. BTW, the 50 ema stands in the way at 1069 and more chart resistance at 1071. Other factors are pointing down. And the US dollar is starting to uptick again. IMO the market rolls over by the close tomorrow, or else justs stalls and rolls down Monday. IMo, watch from the sidelines.
Click to expand...

Thanks Uptrend !!!

Seriously -- like I said you're a thousand times smarter at this stuff compared to me; and now I understand what you're saying.

Cool :cool::cool:

I kind of wish I was on the side lines -- only because it feels weird and I'm a little concerned I'll get burned.
 
Buster said:
I don't know..The presenter of these projected graphs basically CoveredHisAss with either outcome..kind of non committal IMO.:suspicious:

coin-flip1.jpg
Click to expand...


The TPP is only a tool to be used with other indicators. It's not a stand-alone system. It can be a good tool for seeing the overall longer term trend, but day-to-day action is not guaranteed. We can see the utility of this projection by looking at the overall trend. It's been fairly close. It's all context.

All professional traders will hedge their bets. They have to. So the appearance of being noncommital is directed at folks who don't know how to look at charts with a grain of salt. Every chart is open to interpretation.
 
coolhand said:
The TPP is only a tool to be used with other indicators. It's not a stand-alone system. It can be a good tool for seeing the overall longer term trend, but day-to-day action is not guaranteed. .
Click to expand...

Do you know how they made their projection? Average a few bear markets? Some kind of sentiment analysis translated to price? Kudlow and Crammer interviews?
 
Intrepid_Investor said:
Why does the scale at the bottom say it is currently in 2008 but it has 10\28\09 on the graph?
Click to expand...

This is a tool he's dusted off recently and he's been modifying it quite a bit of late. Not sure about the scale at the bottom. I notice he's added an inversion chart now. That's new.
 
coolhand said:
This is a tool he's dusted off recently and he's been modifying it quite a bit of late. Not sure about the scale at the bottom. I notice he's added an inversion chart now. That's new.
Click to expand...

CH, apologies for this question, but is this new inversion chart just a change in the projection, or something else...a bit confusing.
 
coolhand said:
This is a tool he's dusted off recently and he's been modifying it quite a bit of late. .
Click to expand...

Does the chart shape change daily/weekly with new market activity, if it does not conform with his projection?

Looks like he missed the recent low, now the projection says a higher high around 1090 and a higher low around 1060.
 
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