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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Uptrend
Well-known member
No The bond market generally moves well in advance of the equities market. As an observation, they don't seem to be as linked as a 'knee jerk reaction" as in the past. I think traders are parking dollars in commodities (like oil, coal, gold) as the dollar falls. Further, Ben Bernanke must keep bond yields low in order to have any chance at a recovery. He is using various methods to accomplish this feat.
Thank you.
Uptrend
Well-known member
This looks like a double bottom to me on the SPX /ES futures. The critical 1080 is holding for now. The bonds got hammered. F looks like a sell again. Will know tonight. VIX way down. US dollar way down. EFA flying high!
View attachment 7027
Uptrend
Well-known member
Bonds are selling off today. That may trigger a sell for F. Bonds price decline may or may not have anything to do with a market rally.
The market is trying to hang on to SPX 1079-1080 area. My system is very close to a "sell" but still has not shot the trigger. May be advisable to reduce risk today, as outcome is uncertian.
A base could still be building for a shot at the 1150 area. The longer the market lingers in the 1080 area, the more chance of an upside swing. There would still be a break of the trendline coming up from the March lows, but becasue the market has stalled and moved sideways in time; allows more upside room as a backtest. In other words, the market would zigzag around and slowly inch upward but have a major trendline barrier. Repeated backtests can occur.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Well my friend -- It's a System we are 'Learning' and I am content with it.
Selling F -- and Reducing Risk -- are 2 totally opposite suggestions
Thus I will remain in High Risk --- until otherwise prompted by the System.
A REMINDER TO ALL -- Had we initially Bought on his FIRST BUY and SOLD as directed -- we'd still be ahead.
Forget the DAY to DAY -- other than 'The System'
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is a look at the sideways trading pattern for the last six days for the SPX /ES futures 60 minute chart. You can see the whipsaw action. Note that the MACD and RSI are pointing up. Could be firming up a bottom here. It's like a spring winding - the longer the market stays in this range the more potential for a big move - up or down.
View attachment 7036
Uptrend
Well-known member
Observed at yesterdays close for SPX:
A bullish engulfing candle (Yellow candles going up on the 1 hour chart below)
An uptrending channel (Green channel below)
An ascending triangle (bullish) (purple lines below)
Looks like a set-up for a challenge of 1100 area. Could see a fall back to the edge of the green channel first coming in at 1075.
Here is the SPX /ES futures 1 hour chart this AM:
View attachment 7049
Uptrend
Well-known member
My system posted a sell for C, S, I based on the close on Friday. This was a poor momentum failed trade. Can't make money in a trendless market. My system has trouble predicting in this kind of environment. Further, too much distribution from institutions selling.
My indicators show the market bounces tomorrow - perhaps to SPX 1090 by Tuesday morning, then reverse. In other words, I expect a lower high to form which will set up a negative divergence on the MACD. Then to 1060; it is strong support for now.
US dollar looks like a bounce is due; it's oversold. and is close to a bullish cross on the MACD.
I'm moving to 100% F tomorrow. Good luck to all.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The banking sector is supposed to lead: down and up. Well today there is no leading with BAC, WFC, FITB, C as they are all down. Meanwhile GS and MS are up. This shows there is division in good bank / bad bank. Not a rally booster. Shows me in another way that todays rally is fake.
There is strong resistance at SPX 1090-1091 and the market just bounced off of it @ 1091.75 to the downside. This may be the top for now.
grandma
Well-known member
Uptrend - when you say you are moving to F tomorrow, are you meaning you will already be in F at the opening bell tomorrow morning?
In other words, will I see you in the IFT tracker for COB today? - or not until tomorrow - Tuesday? Thanx -
(did I just make this more complicated than it was?:suspicious
TYIA -grandma
Never mind - I see you just did - !!Last edited:
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Uptrend,
I honestly do appreciate your comments and all the more your System.
Beauty -- my friend -- is in the eyes of the beholder
To me todays ACTIVITY reflects BEAUTY and nothing more. I see CONSOLIDATION and that alone is BEAUTIFUL and I could not ask for more.
The 'Monthy Historical Trends' -- and all other factors we would typically weigh in on to influence our IFTs are for now something I will dismiss. I have to weigh everything based on what has transpired from 3/09 to today and measure that againt the past few years. So for now I will 'Buck the System' and stay put.
GL - my friend.
Uptrend
Well-known member
Steady:
A system can't win all trades. It's just fundamentals and relationships that are programmed to get rid of emotions. However, a trend based system prevents exits too early.
This drive to a new high is far weaker than past drives. There are negative divergences all over the charts in the weekly, daily, and hourly timeframes. An observation that Trader Fred made several years ago (before the site went pay), is that a major market release happens up or down after about 10-13 trading days for this kind of movement. Why, is unkown. So if up, and you stay in, you win. But if down, and I exit now, I win. Also, if I exit now, and the market inproves, I can buy back in when Nov turns over.
As Trading with Oscar of video fame says "Stops are in, emotions are out"
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Thanks UT !!
Very good info --- and so far I think your System is the BEST !!
There's just part of me that has to be 'crazy' - 'independent'
(but I may bail to F Tomorrow) ---- we'll see ???Uptrend. At least you have a System. I'm still working on keeping my emotions at bay!!!!! Watch out, rookie at play. I'm always the last to react on going in, the the first to pull out. I'm sticking it out until Seven Sentinels gives us a sell. Good luck and thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Uptrend
Well-known member
I think SS sold sometime last week.
KevinD
Well-known member
Yesterday...
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Good Morning Uptrend,
As crazy as it sounds -- want ya to know I'm routing for the System
I don't mind losing a little so long as the Uptrend continues. In the long run (and especially as December approaches) I can't help but believe gains will dominate the picture.
But I will only lose so much -- I do have my limits.
Uptrend
Well-known member
But I will only lose so much -- I do have my limits.
The US dollar has has a bullish MACD cross on the daily /DX futures chart, and by all appearances is going to continue. This will push the market down hard. Reduce holdings in I and watch the dollar strength. Looks like short term up, long term down.Similar threads
