Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Running for the exits? Not so fast!

Here is some great thinking outside the box, based on technical analysis of the 200 sma. I believe this may have considerable merit because:

1) 3rd Q earnings may be pretty good, based on stimulus $, ie banks.
2)Too much $ on sidelines.
3) Too bullish now, but cool off with a mini-correction to 50 sma? If so, the market is close to bottoming and we should see a reversal that holds. This would lead to another giant short squeeze, like we saw in July. Glad I closed my short positions Friday!
4) Market have not reached 50% or 61.8% fibonacci retracement of total bear market decline coming in at SPX 1121 and 1228. Based on price and this math, the bear market turn would be too early.
5) Bonds, ie 10 year treasury note ($TNX) breaking below long-term support would be a fake out.
6) The dollar chars I have looked at suggest much more US dollar decline, despite what some are saying about a turn.
7) I tend to view the market with bearish sunglasses at times, even make technical analysis cases for it, so need to check my own sentiment and my system.

This delayed correction possibility is certianly not off the table, and that is why I am watching the SPX 1041 level. If the market slices this level like butter, time to stop running for the exits.

http://www.greenfaucet.com/technical-analysis/stock-market-may-not-correct-until-2010/14633

 

[Uptrend]

Looks like the pop to SPX 1041 is underway, as shown in post #1083. IMO, we won't really know market direction until a test of this level. Break it and the market rises (go long), fail and the market falls (go short). I expect an outcome by tomorrow or Wednesday.

Bonds are up today.

TSP, holding 100% F Other stocks and ETF's; mostly in cash.

 

[Steadygain]

TSP, holding 100% F Other stocks and ETF's; mostly in cash.

Uptrend - I really appreciate your DAILY UPDATES

Just got a chance to come on and immediately needed to know if I had a 'Buy Signal' --- before the IFT deadline.


Thanks man - Your System is tried and true - I could care less about any day to day activity... to much room for emotion and guessing and second doubting ... and all the other stuff.

Hi to everyone else -- kind of a HUGE DRIVE BY to the MB at large...

back to the grinding stone ..

 

[Uptrend]

This should conclude the backtest of the SPX 1041 area. The market rose to 1042.5 and closed at 1040.22. It's closing on a daily basis that counts. Volume was low today, so there is little buying conviction. I took some short positions near the close. If more weakness is ahead, we should see it soon. Perhaps tomorrow we see fireworks?

 

[Uptrend]

Downtrend is still intact, unless SPX 1063 is taken out. Market is still making lower highs.

 

[JTH]

Downtrend is still intact, unless SPX 1063 is taken out. Market is still making lower highs.

Thanks Uptrend, I was just looking at the previous 1063 swing high and thinking the same thing. I do believe I get just a little smarter everyday

 

[Uptrend]

The market, is trapped between the 20 sma and 50 sma. It has made a few lower lows and lower highs (downtrend) in the last week or so, but is tricky and trendless. The uptrend will resume if SPX 1064 and then 1070 is taken out. The downtrend will resume if 1019 is taken out.

Bonds are not buying this mini rally. The 10 year treasury note ($TNX) made a big gap down this morning. This does not bode well for the market.

My system, being a trend based system, still sits in a sell mode for C, S and I, and hold for F or G.

 

[Uptrend]

Under the cover of darkness on 5% of the daily volume, the /ES SPX futures are rising. When the sun shines they fall under heavy volume. Market manipulation? SPX 1064 is the critical breakout level and the PPT knows it. Guess where the futures are pointing tonight - right 1064

The bond market is acting irrational and is not in sync with equities. Why are bond prices rising when they should be falling? "...there is too much money sloshing around seeking safety. Too much money that is not being lent".

http://acrossthecurve.com/?p=9163

Most charts I have looked at show, we have a broken trendline from the March lows and are in backtest mode. The backtest can go as high as 1080, as the line moves higher with time. That sure looks like a double top to me.

My system is closer to a buy, but still sits on sell. This is not a trend that can be easily traded in the daily or weekly timeframe. You can front-run the signal if you want, but IMO is highly dangerous. Good Luck.

 

[coolhand]

My system is closer to a buy, but still sits on sell. This is not a trend that can be easily traded in the daily or weekly timeframe. You can front-run the signal if you want, but IMO is highly dangerous. Good Luck.

That pretty much sums up the Seven Sentinels too. Sentiment coupled with massive liquidity continues to whipsaw the action, so even an intermediate term system has trouble staying on course.

 

[Uptrend]

A SPX gap up to start, and the 1064 lower high has been taken out. Now only 1069 stands in the way of a downward slope off of 1080. The downtrend would be intact if the market now drops to below 1019 and makes a new low. Otherwise the market goes nuetral and an uptrend may start. We would be looking for a higher high and a higher low. In other words, if the next low is 1040 (example), and then the new high is 1085 (example),the downtrend has reversed. Or if the new high is 1090(example)first and the new low is 1040 (example) and another new high is 1121 (example) an uptrend has started. It's 1 2 3.

 

[Frixxxx]

We would be looking for a higher high and a higher low. In other words, if the next low is 1040 (example), and then the new high is 1085 (example),the downtrend has reversed. Or if the new high is 1090(example)first and the new low is 1040 (example) and another new high is 1121 (example) an uptrend has started. It's 1 2 3.

For your namesake, Up is where we need to go!

 

[sdouglas3]

A SPX gap up to start, and the 1064 lower high has been taken out. Now only 1069 stands in the way of a downward slope off of 1080. The downtrend would be intact if the market now drops to below 1019 and makes a new low. Otherwise the market goes nuetral and an uptrend may start. We would be looking for a higher high and a higher low. In other words, if the next low is 1040 (example), and then the new high is 1085 (example),the downtrend has reversed. Or if the new high is 1090(example)first and the new low is 1040 (example) and another new high is 1121 (example) an uptrend has started. It's 1 2 3.

So, what is suppose to happen if 1066 or 1069 doesn't hold up today?

 

[Uptrend]

My system is Not confirming a buy yet

Interesting chart of the /ES (SPX) futures in the hour timeframe:

View attachment 6942

 

[Uptrend]

We have a gap and go above resistance in 10 year treasury notes (TNX) today. Notice the double bottom. This means the market should go higher.

My system is close to a buy on C, S, and I, if you want to front run. I am going to have to get out of bonds with this slide in price. Next market weakness looks like the place. No IFT on Monday is also in the way. Decisions!

View attachment 6943

 

[Steadygain]

My system is close to a buy on C, S, and I, if you want to front run. No IFT on Monday is also in the way. Decisions!

For me the Decision is FINAL and no question about it.

Close doesn't cut it with me ~~ my friend ~~ it's either Buy or Hold.

Ignoring the AT and my so - so position (which is trivial and meaningless) -- I have an excellent Gain thus far and have no intention of taking any chances when the System says: 'Hold'

Running to the Front -- could also mean running over a cliff -- and with only 1 real in -- and 1 real out a month -- I'm goin' to wait.

 

[Uptrend]

No change in my system. Still sitting on sell for C, S and I.

Get ready for fireworks this week; up and then down hard. Everything I see shows me we are sitting below the trendline from the March lows, on declining volume, and forming a double M top. Also a bearish rising wedge is almost completed. Earnings will need to be blowout to get over it.

Some banks like MS report this week - if I remember right, last Q they used some 1 time write downs due to goofy accounting rule changes. Even though they do not need to mark to market, rising foreclosures have forced discovery of bad assets on settling bad debt. In ohter words, when they sell, they must disclose real numbers, not made up numbers. How this will play out remains to be seen.

SPX has a current P/E ration of 142 (no joke)! This is a all time historic high, and shows the green shoots to be unrealistic.

I will not be posting tomorrow, as I am out fishing.

 

[Uptrend]

The SPX looks like a double top formed on Monday, but we need to see lower lows and lower highs.

Volume is low.

Vix is trying to rise back up.

Bonds are up.

This week or early next week should be telling on market direction.

 

[Steadygain]

No change in my system. Still sitting on sell for C, S and I.

I will not be posting tomorrow, as I am out fishing.

As you can see Today is a wonderful day to just sit and relax and enjoy the solid and dependable adjustments of The System.

Yes my friend -- things may change by the end of the day -- but it's nice to know there are no worries for those that have prepared for what appears to be 'a correction' in the making.

Hope the weather was perfect, the bugs didn't pester you, and you had some 'quality time' with the most PERFECT PLANET in the Universe.

 

[mick504]

Thankyou for the information....looking forward to more!

 

[Uptrend]

In a rally, there are usually 3 drives to a high. From the March 2009 lows that would be: 1) March - May, 2) July and 3) September. The October surge from SPX 1019 is a little strange. The market started a downtrend from 1080, rose back up and is now backtesting a broken trendline with a double top. Double tops can be a little higher on the right side or can equal the former top (1080) and break down. A little higher would stall somewhere near or below the 50% fibonacci retracement near SPX 1121.

My system is not confirming a move into the market in C S or I at this time.

Here is a chart of bonds 10 year treasury notes (TNX):

View attachment 6966

From the start of 2009 we see a bearish rising wedge (the rising yellowish lines) that broke down in mid August. This is when bonds started a slow but sure rally in price. Next notice the downward sloping green channel. this goes back many years. You can see the TNX recently fell below the center green line near 3.50% yield, and is now back above. However, IMO the chart is bearish because: 1) where the market is now is between the pink horizontal line and the middle green line - this is a bearish descending triangle, 2) the green channel is sloping down, 3) the bearish rising wedge broke down, and 4) the MACD and RSI point down. I am seeing the purple horizontal line as significant support just under a 3.00% yield. The 3.50% yield middle green line is support for now, but has been broken under recently, so can be easily compromised. Based on these factors, I see higher prices ahead for bonds. This is also a contrarian market indicator.