Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Birchtree:
Quite a few what if's. Here are some of my own for consideration. The NYSE McClellan Summation Index (NYSI) made a new high of 1506 today, but now is falling a little. Readings of +1600 show that a major market top is near. I see negative divergences on the chart in the MACD and RSI. As you know, they can set up well in advance of a turn.

View attachment 6838

Perhaps one more little run to the SPX 1090 area after a current reversal that bottoms around 1040 (Elliot wave theory). Then perhaps a move to the mid-1100 area in one more 1 2 3 4 5 wave series, which would satisfy a 50% fibonacci retracement of the entire bear market, and push the NY summation index over 1600. Then an ugly second half of October or early November, as the market reverses. You can call this the no money for Christmas realization theory.

 

[GUCHI]

UP
so are you saying no chritmas rally ???

 

[Uptrend]

GUCHI:
Possibly no Christmas rally. I was just thinking with the high unemployment, it will add to sluggish sales and drag sentiment down. Also no Christmas rally assumes a 50% fibonacci retracement.

The Elliot wave ABC bear market is still in play, as it has not ended as some assume. The market is working on completing the B wave countertrend rally at this time. The question is where will it top? A 50% fibonacci retracement comes in at SPX 1121, while a 61.8% retracement comes in at 1227. No doubt it will stop between these numbers or perhaps right on one of these numbers.

 

[Uptrend]

Correction to post #1044

SPX market hit a high yesterday of 1080 (rounded). We completed wave 3 of a 1 2 3 4 5 off the 978 momentum low. Since wave 3 extended, wave 1 and 5 should be about equal in elliot wave theory. Wave one was 1038 - 978 = 60 points. Wave 5 should extend about 60 points once wave 4 (the market is currently in) concludes.

 

[Steadygain]

GUCHI:
Possibly no Christmas rally. I was just thinking with the high unemployment, it will add to sluggish sales and drag sentiment down.

Would definately agree with that - and am thrilled we got the boost a little earlier.

Economists - not swayed by the political garbage - have been saying the same thing. This SEASON will be worse than last year (which was like the 'all time worse').

So I'm expecting the 'Corepuncher Retreat' and when it comes I'll give him my congrats.

Also no Christmas rally assumes a 50% fibonacci retracement.

Thanks man - excellent input

You ough to go on the Political Threads once in a while and say some stuff -- it's kind of a neat break :cheesy:

 

[momacs]

Hi Uptrend
Do you think the action today completed the wave 4 down move and now it'll possibly start back up to take out your upside target of 1121 or 1227?
Thanks

 

[Uptrend]

momacs:
No. I don't think wave 4 has ended. The market needs to tag the 20 sma coming in at SPX 1039 first. I am expecting a bounce here. Then for wave 5, 1039 plus 60 points (where wave 1 = wave 5) = 1099. Or the market might bounce at 1039, put in a lower high and continue lower to 1018. Then take off with wave 5 to 1078 a double top. However, under this scenario we have a wave violation where wave 4 falls below wave 1, and the uptrend to 1080 is probably over.

 

[Uptrend]

For the most normal count of the elliot wave last minute 5 wave pattern, the SPX market made a wave 4 reversal at 1041.17 on Friday, which is above the 1039.47 high of wave 1. Therefore we do not have a wave violation where wave 4 overlaps wave 1, and a high probability for a market reversal. This should be a continuation pattern in the 1 2 3 4 5 where the 5th wave is under construction. For this scenario to play out, we should see a retest of Fridays low before price starts rising. The new short-term target is now 1101.

My system has not flashed any new buy signals at this time.

 

[mayday]

For the most normal count of the elliot wave last minute 5 wave pattern, the SPX market made a wave 4 reversal at 1041.17 on Friday, which is above the 1039.47 high of wave 1. Therefore we do not have a wave violation where wave 4 overlaps wave 1, and a high probability for a market reversal. This should be a continuation pattern in the 1 2 3 4 5 where the 5th wave is under construction. For this scenario to play out, we should see a retest of Fridays low before price starts rising. The new short-term target is now 1101.

My system has not flashed any new buy signals at this time.

Uptrend: Are you saying that if we drop below 1039.47 at anytime on Monday the market will start rising toward 1101?

 

[Uptrend]

mayday:
No The market cannot go into the territory of 1039.47 or below and still maintain the uptrend. But a retest of 1040 would confirm that a resumption of the uptrend is probably eminent.

 

[airlift]

mayday:
No The market cannot go into the territory of 1039.47 or below and still maintain the uptrend. But a retest of 1040 would confirm that a resumption of the uptrend is probably eminent.

Uptrend,

What about going into the territory of 1039.47 or below for a very limited time (without closing below at end of day). I realize that I am splitting hairs, but if the downturn is not permanent but resumes the uptrend immediately say going to 1030 and reversing, is this a continuation of the uptrend? The only reason for this question is because I want to learn the limits of the theory. If breaking the uptrend quickly, but making a quick reversal to the upside confirms the continuation of the uptrend. The relevance of this has to do with trying to determine if the 1st IFT of October is worth doing on Wednesday (September 30) to be invested on the 1st of October.

 

[Uptrend]

airlift
I am not an elliot wave expert, but my understanding is that waves 1 and 4 of a 1 2 3 4 5 advance wave structure should not overlap as a rule, even intra-day. The problem with elliot wave theory as some have pointed out, it that it is reliatively obvious to determine the correct wave count in hindsight, but not necessarily in foresight as a wave structure is developing. EW folks sometimes discard a prefered count in favor of an alternaitve count, if the wave structure plays out differently than first thought.

In the current case, the wave count seems to be straightforward with little alternaitve possibilities to maintain the uptrend.

However, an ending diagonal count is possible for the current wave structure, but SPX would drop to the 1018 gap resistance window to end minute wave 4. Further because of wave violation (dropping below 1039.47), this strongly suggests that the larger B wave countertrend rally (of the entire ABC bear market) off the March 666 low has ended, as well as the uptrend. In other words the downtrend would be underway with lower lows and lower highs of the primary C wave. Therefore, we must stand by with a wait and see attitude, until market direction is determined. It will tell us in the next few sessions.

 

[airlift]

airlift
I am not an elliot wave expert, but my understanding is that waves 1 and 4 of a 1 2 3 4 5 advance wave structure should not overlap as a rule, even intra-day. The problem with elliot wave theory as some have pointed out, it that it is reliatively obvious to determine the correct wave count in hindsight, but not necessarily in foresight as a wave structure is developing. EW folks sometimes discard a prefered count in favor of an alternaitve count, if the wave structure plays out differently than first thought.

In the current case, the wave count seems to be straightforward with little alternaitve possibilities to maintain the uptrend.

However, an ending diagonal count is possible for the current wave structure, but SPX would drop to the 1018 gap resistance window to end minute wave 4. Further because of wave violation (dropping below 1039.47), this strongly suggests that the larger B wave countertrend rally (of the entire ABC bear market) off the March 666 low has ended, as well as the uptrend. In other words the downtrend would be underway with lower lows and lower highs of the primary C wave. Therefore, we must stand by with a wait and see attitude, until market direction is determined. It will tell us in the next few sessions.

Thank you!

 

[Uptrend]

airlift:
Also, I would not solely rely on EWT to determine IFT trading, Remember, in EWT, there is a rule of alternation. The next wave structure, almost always has a different form than the previous wave structure. It can be used with other market indicators to help determine market direction.

 

[airlift]

airlift:
Also, I would not solely rely on EWT to determine IFT trading, Remember, in EWT, there is a rule of alternation. The next wave structure, almost always has a different form than the previous wave structure. It can be used with other market indicators to help determine market direction.

I do... I try to see whether or not there is convergence of trends, by looking at the behavior of other indicators and/or systems. Your input is always enlightening. Thank you.

 

[mayday]

airlift
I am not an elliot wave expert, but my understanding is that waves 1 and 4 of a 1 2 3 4 5 advance wave structure should not overlap as a rule, even intra-day. The problem with elliot wave theory as some have pointed out, it that it is reliatively obvious to determine the correct wave count in hindsight, but not necessarily in foresight as a wave structure is developing. EW folks sometimes discard a prefered count in favor of an alternaitve count, if the wave structure plays out differently than first thought.

In the current case, the wave count seems to be straightforward with little alternaitve possibilities to maintain the uptrend.

However, an ending diagonal count is possible for the current wave structure, but SPX would drop to the 1018 gap resistance window to end minute wave 4. Further because of wave violation (dropping below 1039.47), this strongly suggests that the larger B wave countertrend rally (of the entire ABC bear market) off the March 666 low has ended, as well as the uptrend. In other words the downtrend would be underway with lower lows and lower highs of the primary C wave. Therefore, we must stand by with a wait and see attitude, until market direction is determined. It will tell us in the next few sessions.

Thanks Uptrend, and airlift for those keen insights to my question.

I might have jumped the gun on getting back in to the market yesterday.

 

[Uptrend]

A look at the VIX in the daily timeframe:

View attachment 6854

We see the VIX moving lower the last 2 months with 2 descending triangles and the breakdown of each one. Now we see a possible up channel with a 3 white soldiers candlestick pattern, starting last Wednesday. You can see the breakout on last Thursday. This is a bullish reversal pattern when it comes at the bottom of a downtrend. The MACD has a bullish cross and the stochastic is above the value of 50 (68) showing strength. The last candle is above the 20 sma showing strength.

You can also see the failed breakout above the upper trendline in early September, with the formation of the 3 day evening star reversal pattern. We will find out this week, if the VIX reverses down again, or if this is the real deal! The real deal means that the market would be starting the C primary downtrend wave. Quite an important week.

Here is a good link for candlestick pattern recognition and study:

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_pattern

 

[mayday]

A look at the VIX in the daily timeframe:

View attachment 6854

We see the VIX moving lower the last 2 months with 2 descending triangles and the breakdown of each one. Now we see a possible up channel with a 3 white soldiers candlestick pattern, starting last Wednesday. You can see the breakout on last Thursday. This is a bullish reversal pattern when it comes at the bottom of a downtrend. The MACD has a bullish cross and the stochastic is above the value of 50 (68) showing strength. The last candle is above the 20 sma showing strength.

You can also see the failed breakout above the upper trendline in early September, with the formation of the 3 day evening star reversal pattern. We will find out this week, if the VIX reverses down again, or if this is the real deal! The real deal means that the market would be starting the C primary downtrend wave. Quite an important week.

Here is a good link for candlestick pattern recognition and study:

http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=chart_school:chart_analysis:candlestick_pattern

So with the 3 white soldiers we should be concerned that the VIX will continue to go higher. Is that your prediction Uptrend?

 

[Uptrend]

mayday:
Yes This is a usually a bullish pattern. VIX moving higher means the market will move lower. Keep in mind it could be another fake-out. We shall see in several trading days.

 

[mayday]

mayday:
Yes This is a usually a bullish pattern. VIX moving higher means the market will move lower. Keep in mind it could be another fake-out. We shall see in several trading days.

Uptrend: Could that last up day on the VIX might indicate a shooting star indicating a bearish reversal. Dave