Uptrend's Account Talk

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Uptrend,

have you given any thought to the retracement levels? I've notice some EW folks have had dificulty pinning down these waves. The biggest question for me is where to draw the line in the sand on this retracement. It appears 790 would be a 50% retracement from peak to trough, what do you think?
 
SPX 900 is the level to watch

If the market falls below, retracement to spx 800-825 is probable. If spx 900 holds, the market probably rallies to the 200 sma currently near spx 958

IMo a larger retracement is coming; just unsure if this is a minor pullback in the rising strong uptrend, or if we have topped and now starting a new downwave. Since the March lows, the market has not had more than 2 down days in a row, so we shall see what happens this Wednesday. However, caution is really advised! Here is why:

http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/five-economic-storms-raging-now-2-33662



 
Captain says rough waters ahead. Lets look at a chart:

View attachment 6325

Notice that the main trendline off the March lows has broken. Bearish. Now for the next few days the market should bounce between strong support at spx 875 and the trendline, now acting as resistance, at spx 901. I fully expect a backtest of the trendline at spx 901. If price fails to move higher, then it would be the place to enter short positions (outside of TSP). like SDS, FAZ etc. MACD is getting the bearish cross. RSI is moving towards nuetral.

I fully expect spx 825 to be an important pivot. It is strong support and the 2nd momemtom low of the recent uptrend. It is also 38.2% FIB retracement off the recent spx 930 high.

Where is the market going? Who knows? Possibilities:
1) Retrace to spx 825 area (38.2% FIB) and then take off bullish again to spx 1107-1125 (a 50% retracement of the enitre downtrend). Then turn bearish again and go down near the spx 666 low and put in a slightly higher low.

2) Retrace to about spx 720 and put in a higher low. Then take off to the upside and end the bear market. This spx 720 spot is found by taking the advance to spx 930 from the spx 825 pivot (105 difference) and subtracting from spx 825 = spx 720. It is also found from the diagonal line I have drawn.

3) Head on down and take out the spx 666 low and go on to a new low at spx 550. This would put PE ratios into a better balance.
 
Any of the options are nice for TSPers to make some cash. As long as you play conservative for now and then make sure the target points are actually market turners then we could all be up big %. For me, I caught the first 20% of the last bull, went G and missed most of the rest. I went in 60% CSI last week and am down a little because of it. I did beat the punch and made a move to 100%F for yesterdays trading. I'm not a fan of the F but with significant downward action very likely in the near future (I hope) the F should make a little ching.
 
Uptrend said:
"The bailout money is in the sewer and gone."

"Davidowitz, who is nothing if not opinionated (and colorful), paints a very grim picture: "The worst is yet to come with consumers and banks," he says. "This country is going into a 10-year decline. Living standards will never be the same."

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/248398/"The-Worst-Is-Yet-to-Come"-If-You
Click to expand...

Amen Brother - Preach it preacher ;)

We've know for years that it was only a matter of time.

QUESTION: How long is it possible to wear a pleasant mask and wear rose glasses - and sustain an environment where everything looks stable and wonderful - while sinking further and further in debt??

OR: How long can you bask in the Sun's Rays while plunging further and further down an endless hole??
 
I still have a bearish position for Monday May 18. The critical level to watch is spx 877. If we close above, then there is not a technical problem with Elliot wave theory, and the market should rally between spx 1000 and spx 1107. I know this is not rational but who cares, only price pays. Markets are not rational, as I am learning, longer than opne might expect. If we close below, IMO we retrace further.

I am watching the dollar for further signs of weakening in the short term. For example UUP (bullish powershares US dollar) has a spining top doji in the weekly timeframe, after 3 weeks of decline. The noted decline range in the past is 3-5 weeks. The UUP weekly candlestick is sitting on the lower bollinger band and the 50 sma for support. In the daily timeframe the MACD has a bullish divergence, and the stochastic has a bullish cross. So, chances are the dollar bounces, and if nothing much else is going on, this sends the market lower due to an adjustment in asset allocation. Of course, some good news of any sort could counter this trend. What would that be - GM avoids bankruptcy, TARP funds paid back by GS, JPM, and others, new housing starts in April greater than expected, weekly jobless claims lower than expected etc.

IMO we are in a tricky spot in the market and locked between spx 877 and spx 901. Any further strength above spx 901 and the market goes higher, and any further weakness below spx 877 and the market goes lower.

Watch these levels.
 
The market is not showing us anything today, just bouncing around in between support and resistance at spx 877 to spx 901. Until one of these levels are taken out it's time to standby and watch and let the day trades run.

On the banks, each company is upgrading the other company today for this and that reason. It's a circular market and defies logic. A company tells B company that they are upgraded to a buy, while B company tells C company that they are upgraded to a buy, while C company tells A company the same. It's BS
 
Uptrend said:
The market is not showing us anything today, just bouncing around in between support and resistance at spx 877 to spx 901. Until one of these levels are taken out it's time to standby and watch and let the day trades run.

On the banks, each company is upgrading the other company today for this and that reason. It's a circular market and defies logic. A company tells B company that they are upgraded to a buy, while B company tells C company that they are upgraded to a buy, while C company tells A company the same. It's BS
Click to expand...
thx for the excellent analysis. I'm 100%G. I think theres greater possibility to penetrate 901 either today or tomorrow than dropping below 877. All banks are seeing significant rally today. bac is already up over 13%. They are just buying each other to raise stock prices. Lowes lost profit, but they said they are doing better than expected and the market cheers.
 
Uptrend said:
The market is not showing us anything today, just bouncing around in between support and resistance at spx 877 to spx 901. Until one of these levels are taken out it's time to standby and watch and let the day trades run.

On the banks, each company is upgrading the other company today for this and that reason. It's a circular market and defies logic. A company tells B company that they are upgraded to a buy, while B company tells C company that they are upgraded to a buy, while C company tells A company the same. It's BS
Click to expand...
barbeque.JPG
Need I say more?:mad:
 
Uptrend said:
The market is not showing us anything today, just bouncing around in between support and resistance at spx 877 to spx 901. Until one of these levels are taken out it's time to standby and watch and let the day trades run.

On the banks, each company is upgrading the other company today for this and that reason. It's a circular market and defies logic. A company tells B company that they are upgraded to a buy, while B company tells C company that they are upgraded to a buy, while C company tells A company the same. It's BS
Click to expand...

Thank you for your refreshing words of wisdom.

I love the way you put things !!
 
Uptrend said:
The market is not showing us anything today, just bouncing around in between support and resistance at spx 877 to spx 901. Until one of these levels are taken out it's time to standby and watch and let the day trades run.

On the banks, each company is upgrading the other company today for this and that reason. It's a circular market and defies logic. A company tells B company that they are upgraded to a buy, while B company tells C company that they are upgraded to a buy, while C company tells A company the same. It's BS
Click to expand...


That analogy brought back some old math memories, A=B, B=C therefore A=C.

CB
 
SPX at 903.64 and heading higher in the next hour. The buying stampede is in full force. And I'm running as fast as I can to stay in front of the train.
 
Uptrend said:
The market is not showing us anything today, just bouncing around in between support and resistance at spx 877 to spx 901. Until one of these levels are taken out it's time to standby and watch and let the day trades run.
Click to expand...


909.71 do it for ya? :)
woooohoooo nice day today!
 
I guess we should just all ignore any analysis, chart, trend, news, ...etc.. because as my dad used to say.. a dog does not care if the whole world blows up today if hes got a bone in front of him
 
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