Uptrend's Account Talk

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Uptrend,

I am looking at, and following up, on the weekly chart of the SPX you posted last week. Interesting, that with the SPX hitting a low of 862.02 and closing at 871.79 yesterday, the weekly chart lows of 850 to 860 for the past 5 weeks are still holding. Seems that area continues to be strong support so far. Perhaps we can rally for a few days, and if this happens, this action would be consistent with the technical information discussed today by James on the P&F Chart thread. Thank you and Good Luck!
 
Airlift: Oops the market did not listen to you! I am watching financials for a clue on where we go next. So far, down. I am still holding up the theory that when the financials turn the market will turn. The whole sector was slammed this morning. HBAN was off over 15%

On another note, IMO oil is starting to get oversold. OPEC is talking about further supply cuts if the market does not hold up. Knee and jerk reaction to the retail report this AM. The strong dollar and excess supply should keep oil prices low for a few weeks. When the dollar eases off on the climb and spring comes, it will be another story. Bought DXO today for 2.79
 
The market shot by the 50% Fib retracement.

818 spx is the 61.8% retracement determined between the recent 931 high from the previous Nobember 2008 749 closing daily low.


I am thinking the market may have a temporary stop in this region. There was a previous 816 stop here in early December,2008. But then again the financials are dragging it down. Bank of America in trouble Imangine that!

Entry point: Wait Holding G
 
Made a last minute decision to IFT to 30 C 70S.

Reasons:

Low volume trading in a downward direction

Near a 61.8% FIb retracement

Market oversold

Financials may be on the verge of turning - way oversold

Obama expectations -hype -possible bounce
 
Market is at the 61.8% Fib turning point and a previous low chart support. Lets see if the majic will kick in and the market hold.


Stop!
 
Turn-around Thursday! Nice reversal, now lets see if it can hold. First possible exit point would be around spx 860, and then around 875. However, need to evaluate the Obama "effect" over the next several trading sessions. Nice hammer candlesticks led by the Nasdaq. S&P is weak because of energy and the financials. Good volume coming in the afternoon. Qualifies for a decent intermediate reversal.
 
The market is in a choppy but rising upwave.


I expect more chop, but expect honeymoon Obama politics to prevade for inauguration Tuesday. The 61.8% fibonacci retracement to 817 was predictable. Yesterdays close was at spx 843.74 which is exactly the 23.6% fibonacci level! Now the next upwave fibonacci level of 38.2% on the spx lands at 861 and the 50% retracement at 874. IMO we topped out 9 trading day ago, began a new downtrend, and this counter wave to that downtrend will be short. I will remove 50% to all of my position between spx 861 to 874 on a daily closing basis, as I expect the new downwave to begin with a vengence.

Q Who do you bank with?? A Not anymore!!


IFT position: 70% S 30% C
Tracker position: 15
YTD Gain/loss +0.98%
 
Don't be fooled. The trend is still down. I expect the next support to be around 789 spx, but IMO we are going back to the lows within 2-3 weeks. I tried to play the last bounce, but was 1 day behind - so hard with the IFT transfer rule. Got out on the IBM bounce with minimal damage.

Three things I am watching: XLF must turn up and show a bullish candlesitck pattern VIX must drop below 40 or show probability of continued retracement towards 40 or below buying volume must > 5 billion shares traded on a daily basis
 
Look like the market will continue to chop around between spx 804 and 859 this week. The GDP negative report on friday could be a market mover.

With that said, I have reviewed many stock charts this weekend to set up some personal short term trades, and I have been seeing the same thing over and over again. Many charts have lows approaching the November 2008 lows. That can mean only two things: 1) The market will hold near the previous support level, and then a rally will ignite (the classic W pattern - bullish), or 2) the market will breakdown and go lower. In this case, the November 2008 low will then perhaps become a left shoulder, and an ongong saga will commence on building a right shoulder after a lower low. IMHO # 1 is far more likely. This is because the market is oversold almost to historic levels and many stocks are very cheap. The hedge funds had forced selling on margin calls that took the market below 800 in November 2008. What bad news have we not heard already? Only 30% of the 4th quarter earning reports are bad; the rest are neutral or better. After unloading these earnings for the next two weeks, I think the market will be ready to rally, if not before. Obama stimulus is a wild card. I am expecting a 200 spx move to the upside. IMHO any spx position near 800 is probably a good one.

I am excited because I am planning to double the price on several individual stock positions I ahve been taking lately, and in the short-term. The trick is too keep tight stops, where risk is higher. The upcoming rally, may not be the big rally to end the bear market, but non-the -less IMHO will be a powerfull relief rally.
 
Uptrend said:
2) the market will breakdown and go lower. In this case, the November 2008 low will then perhaps become a left shoulder, and an ongong saga will commence on building a right shoulder after a lower low. IMHO # 1 is far more likely.[/quote]


Uptrend,
You know way more than I do in regards to charts and stuff - (and economics in general) so I really hope you're right.

Perhaps an alternative view (the one I hold) is most of the events up to this point have desperately tried to keep the Markets from sinking... but they sunk anyway.

I'm thinking the most substantial plunge is yet to come with another 20% dive within the next 6 months.

I hope you're right - but I just don't see how a sustained rally could take off at this point.

Anyway - best of luck
Click to expand...
 
Uptrend,
After a very hard night's sleep - I FINALLY realize the way I must be sounding on the MB and I deeply regret that.

You are way smarter than me when it comes to the Markets and guaging the many factors 'WE ALL DEPEND ON" to make educated decisions on when to go in - or when to go out.

So I'm sorry for what has probably been perceived as a blantant disregard for others opinions. I'll make an effort to avoid going in someone else's home and sounding disrespectful.

Steady
 
Thanks for dropping by Uptrend. I could certainly use some bullish perspectives to help balance out my negative sentiment.
I always enjoy your charts and was wondering if you had a chance to go over XLF this weekend. I was also wondering about the
reference to the November H&S, was this inverted? I'm never good at seeing H&S unless they a blatantly obvious.

I'm wanting to see a higher intraday high today, to keep the upwards momentum going.

Thanks...JTH
 
Thanks JTH
I will go over the XLF this evening and see what the technicals say. I noticed that the banks: BAC C HBAN MS GS WFC etc except for JPM were all up this AM. But not by much.

Got stopped out of evergreen solar (ESLR) yesterday for a slight loss. I think solar is going to rip, and ESLR has the lowest cost technology, but ESLR got in trouble with giving defunct Lehman brothers preferred stock in exhange for promisary funding that they never received. The shorters are having a heyday with them to the point, I think the stock deserves a bounce. It is down again this AM. ESLR is building a new plant in the east. They have solar cells on the White House that were installed in 2002, so Obama must know about them. If the admin gives solar some $ it will be evergreen solar. They got to the party late, but could be a big play in the future. Other alternative solar companies I like are FSLR and STP.
 
Here is the most recent xlf chart

View attachment 5544

The first thing you may see is that the down trending channel has not changed. It was punctured near Thanksgiving, but has recovered. The financials can freely move lower to below 8 and still be in the trading channel. The uptrend in late November was a way steeper rebound than the uptrending last 5 trading days. In fact the last 4 trading days has been spinning tops candlesticks which is quite unusual to have that number in a row. Could indicate a bottom forming, or just a sideways and barely up move where the buying and selling forces are balanced. The weekly shows a doji star and by looking at the previous candlesticks might be a abandoned baby if the xlf now rapidly moves up or a tri star if xlf moves sideways with indecision for another week, Both patterns are bullish. On the other hand it may just mean indecision on the weekly, prior to another down move.

We shall see soon enough which way the xlf breaks out of the current little wedge. If I had to guess, IMO the xlf is responding to a bounce off the lower channel boundary 5 trading days ago and nothing more. If this is the case, the sideways move will fizzle out and break down. The reversal angle is just not steep enough to convince me that a uptrend is starting. Another way of saying this is that the buying pressure is weak. RSI is negative and the sto are embedded. Not real positive.

Holding G
 
Thanks UpTrend

I was wondering how the Financials were going to play out in relation to the S&P 500. I keep thinking how when all this downtrend stuff started by the banks dragging everything down.
On a positive note, Ds3v3n’s video pointed out some insider buying of the banks. Maybe that will give it the spark it needs…

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3dOMEjGr6mg

Thanks again…JTH
 
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