Uptrend's Account Talk

[Uptrend]

Lets look at bonds. Something is going to happen in a month or so. The trading range is getting jammed by upper and lower resistance. A rising wedge, as they say.

View attachment 5049

We know the gov is deep in debt, and the problem is getting worse day by day. So how can the gov raise $? By selling T Bills to any willing buyers at auctions. Assuming the dollar strength stays reasonably high, perhaps foreign gov and individuals will be some of the buyers. There will need to be billions of $ of bonds issued to keep the gov running and pay all the bail-out promises. We know the debt that needs to be covered will crash the gov T Bill prices. What would you do as an investor? - no need to bid higher - the gov is in a jam and all the bidders know it.

So gov bond prices should fall in a big way. IMHO, avoid the F fund. But wait - we can profit outside TSP by shorting the coming crisis. See chart.

View attachment 5050

Look at the big up-move in early October. That is probably small in comparison to what is coming! When the breakout arrives - get on board!

 

[Uptrend]

SymbolLastChangeDow8,602.20

268.34 (3.03%)Nasdaq1,570.33

46.41 (2.87%)S&P 500890.45

28.76 (3.13%)10-Yr Bond3.76%

0.00NYSE Volume1,614,493,250Nasdaq Volume618,990,750


Note the volume is low for this deep sell Not good. In a more normal market, it wouod be floating up. Time to test the lows in early Oct. Standing by and waiting for the reversal day. Could stop at 848, 912, or 789 spx.

 

[Uptrend]

Anticipating a turn-around in the next few trading days. Nov 18 corresponds to the 5 week low. Today looks to be a "doji" day (indecision), but so far is not a turn-around day. You often see these kind of days bounded by 2 big jumps in the market direction. Volume is way to low and not convincing. My guess is that we test the spx 912 or 789 support area soon. Need some sort of additional bad news to take the market down.

Don't believe the US gov will let the big 3 automakers fail. No way. Reasons being 1) estimate of over 2.5 million jobs lost, 2) national defense and military vehicles, and 3) balance of inports/exsports and trade deficit (buying imports as an alternative). Kind of wrong however to be paying for retirees and seperated workers big benefit packages negoitated by the unions.

 

[Silverbird]

Er...you are saying its not right to force the big 3 to fulfill their pension obligations? They signed it. We have enough trouble with companies going belly up who get out from under their pension obligations because the lenders get paid first. If the Big 3 don't go belly up, they need to fulfill their pension obligations. Otherwise, what good pensions if the USG simply takes companies off the hook and later gets stuck with all those new bankrupt former Big 3 workers who are often too old to do what they used to do?

 

[Steadygain]

Don't believe the US gov will let the big 3 automakers fail. No way.

This surprises me Uptrend. The big 3 have largely been failing for a long time. Anything the government prints out now is simply air in the form of paper.

I think what we are seeing now is the after math of the Financial Weapon of Mass Destruction. What we saw in the relatively recent past was the Governments responding to the BOMB that went off. The bulk of those reactions were designed to Stop the Bleeding and get the FLOW going.

Only now are we really beginning to see companies downsizing on mass proportions - thousands and thousands of jobs evaporating on a global level - and the real pain is just starting. The big 3 will not fall completely but they will undoubted be very damaged and many losses are inevitable.

That's how I see it.

 

[Uptrend]

I IFT today to 60% C and 40% I

If you look at the chart of the $USD you can see that the dollar is falling and should pull back to the 20 dma. Combine this with good entry share prices and a little bounce and I should kick. The market might jump about wildly for the next few days, but I still think this is a good entry point. When the 4th quarter earnings coming out in mid-January through February, that ugly news will probably take the market down to spx 789. But for now, despite the news, the technicals support a little rally. Most earnings reports are disclosed. We are mid-way to near the bottom of the new lower trading range (800-1000 spx) and have tested the support area of 840 intra-day (but not the close). However the EFA chart shows a W pattern forming (bullish) and so does the $emw The $spx is a little more unclear. There is a 5 week cycle low that was supposed to occur on Nov 18, but it appears it hit it four trading days early on Nov 13 (which is not that unusual).

 

[Uptrend]

Which way is the market headed? Short answer - nobody knows. Lot of claims out there, but perhaps we are entering uncharted territory. Here is MO from my corner of the universe.

1) Mucho Bearish news
2) Options X week OEX Put/call ratio 1.48
3) Positive divergences on the charts

View attachment 5078

Notice the positive divergences on the advance/decline line tend to lead price. Notice the positive divergence on the MACD

Short term uptrend may be underway this week.

IFT to 60% C / 40% I on Fir Nov 14

 

[Steadygain]

Anticipating a turn-around in the next few trading days.

Don't believe the US gov will let the big 3 automakers fail. No way.

I think what we are seeing now is the after math of the Financial Weapon of Mass Destruction. What we saw in the relatively recent past was the Governments responding to the BOMB that went off. The bulk of those reactions were designed to Stop the Bleeding and get the FLOW going. Only now are we really beginning to see companies downsizing on mass proportions - thousands and thousands of jobs evaporating on a global level - and the real pain is just starting.

That's how I see it.

Since these posts:

C Fund
went from over 900 down to 750

S Fund
went from over 380 down to 314

I Fund
went from over 42 down to 35.73

There is no way I could imagine the bulk of investors and especially the 'smart money' seeing this as the ideal buying opportunity. I believe 'reality will hit hard' and the bulk will both avoid buying and selling will likely escalate. The massive sell off is likely yet to come.

 

[Uptrend]

Well I hung on and saved the failed trade (went in to early), and got most everything back in the rally, but failed to make much headway. Patience is key. So now what may be ahead? Perhpas more downturn? I have moved to safety of G. See chart

View attachment 5153

There is a lid on this rally; the downtrend line, 20 dma and previous trading area resistance. Also the price by volume has been declining the past several days, which is a cause for concern (bottom of chart). Price is still in a down channel (top of chart). We have now retraced 60% from the previous 1007 high, and is nearing the FIB 61% retracement. This evidence implies that the rally may be fading, or will be on Friday Nov 28.

Who was buying anyway? It was not the institutions, but the small private investor. This is a cause for concern.

http://stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

Furthermore, there should be a lot of selling in Dec because of tax write-off. This should take the market down big. IMHO capitulation is ahead. I am sitting on the sidelines in cash.

 

[Birchtree]

There will be many that will continue to question the merits of this rally all the way to 1150 while they maintain their cash positions - that's the way the bull plays. It will be a while before greed gets comfortable again. I'm a small potato that will be buying tomorrow - regardless of market conditions. I'm after income while it's available on sale.

 

[Uptrend]

I thank God for all the blessings of life today; for your friendship on the MB, for my family and friends, for good health, interesting job, for comfortable living conditions and the freedoms we Americans enjoy.

Happy Thanksgiving!

 

[Uptrend]

Last week we had the Bear-rck Rally, followed by Cold Turkey today.

Since I sold the rally in my TSP and personal stock funds last Friday, I am sitting on the sidelines looking on.

A short-term turn date I am looking at, with probably 5-7 up days, for the market is around 12/15 when the Fed meets. If the institutions don't start buying soon we could go to 400 ish on the spx. Don't assume this can't happen In a long-term timeframe back to 1987, the spx resembles an M pattern which is bearish; and we are currently sliding down the right leg of the M. If the market doesn't get all the way down to 400 ish in the next few days, IMHO we will in January 09.

 

[Uptrend]

Bear trap is probably setting up. Resist the urge to buy in until the rally starts in mid-December. Here is why:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28010476

 

[Uptrend]

Here is a downside target analysis. Uses the principle of symetry. A+B = C+D A, B and C are kown. D can be determined.

View attachment 5182

618.99 SPX

 

[TerpTrader]

Bear trap is probably setting up. Resist the urge to buy in until the rally starts in mid-December. Here is why:

http://www.cnbc.com/id/28010476

Good stuff, UT.
Hope he's right...would love to catch a nice 6 or 7 mo. bull trend.
I wonder how he's fared with his predictions in the past. :suspicious:

I will likely begin taking positions in stock funds around Thurs. 12/11 in anticipation of expected FED rate cut. on 12/16.
Unless a serious selloff prior gets me into stocks sooner.

 

[Uptrend]

Thinking about entering the market today. This would be a short-term or swing trade. Trade will end when we reach the upper bollinger band on the SPX or near December 26. Reasons: Christmas holidays and deny the pain syndrome, Obama honeymoon, as well as auto-makers handout. This should be enough to get the market above 893 spx and then the 50 dma.

In a longer time-frame, I still expect the market to go lower than 739 spx. We could have a short rally before Christmas, year end selling and some retracement and then another push up in January 09 just before the inauguration. When the 4th quarter reports hit in February, get ready to fall down.

On the trukey trade, I noticed that the large caps took off while the small caps were in idle and then they took off to the upside. I expect the same to occur this time, because IMO so many large caps are on sale, and are safer bets for cash entering the market at the outset. I agree with Optionman that the I is ready for a strong bounce. Therefore, I will go in 50/50 C I for the first trade, and then rebalance in a few days to C S.

 

[JTH]

I was wondering myself if today would be a good entry point, thanks for your incite.

 

[Uptrend]

Volume for the selling today is on the light side. This means to me that there is no conviction in the selling camp. And shorters are being careful not to be burned.

SymbolLastChangeDow8,156.26

219.98 (2.63%)Nasdaq1,415.54

30.02 (2.08%)S&P 500823.24

21.98 (2.60%)10-Yr Bond2.572%

0.002NYSE Volume2,068,937,875Nasdaq Volume624,805,937.5

S&P 813 is the number to hold. We hold, and then the inverted H&S may rally. We fall below, and I will cancel the trade.

 

[Steadygain]

Here is a downside target analysis. Uses the principle of symetry. A+B = C+D A, B and C are kown. D can be determined.


618.99 SPX

Thanks Uptrend,
619 seems almost impossible to me. As impossible as Oil going below $50 a barrel and gas going down to $1.25; as impossible as job cuts exceeding 1,000,000 and all the States banning together and demanding 'government pay the cost'. As impossible as believing 'THE WORST IS YET TO COME' and a much larger SELL OFF IS IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

I really hate to put TOO MUCH on any person's input (no offense) but yet at the same time when I go in I want every penny to really count the most and that's the only reason why I'm sitting on all the cash.

So I will sit back and be more patient about my entry point. Emotions are starting to favor an 800 entry point - but I think too much of that is based on itching to get back in. So after seeing this I've decided to wait for a much better opportunity. I'll now use 700 and 650.

THANK YOU!!

 

[Birchtree]

The dust cloud is building as the bulls begin to move faster.