Uptrend's Account Talk

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View attachment 3730

Today we sit on the cross-roads of two support lines (See lower circle). Isn't that cool? The market is geometrical. If you look at the mid-point of the last 2 month trading range, you can see we are pretty much right in the center, a 50% Fib retracement off the recent highs. As long as the cross-roads support holds we are in good shape. Notice the slow stochastic is getting near the area where it should turn upwards, as the market is getting oversold.

Intel is up after hours. A few more good large cap reports and perhaps we will have a spark that carries us to the 200 dma (top circle). IMO the market will fall back hard when it hits it. So I am going to ride the waves of the rough ocean until I see an exit near there. Am expecting this trade to end by the end of the first week of May or before. With our limited trading in TSP, we must be prepared to ignore some of the 1-2% retracements, as long as we stay with the trend. ISEE sentiment is a little more bullish today. Short-term trend looks to be up.
 
View attachment 3749

We see that the VIX has moved below the 200 dma as well as broke below the trading channel. There is also some gap fill back in December 2007. The VIX is inverse to the $SPX, and IMO confirms the uptrend in the short-term as it is considered to measure the bearish level out there. We see the stow sto is still dropping but has not hit the floor level yet. All these indicators are bullish signs.

Also today the ISEE sentiment has increased to 118 and the 10 dma to 108. This is bullish psychology.

Tomorrow we might be up against the S&P breakout line, as I see the E-mini S&P 500 Stock Index (June '08) trading at 1373 tonight. Perhaps we will breakut toward the 200 dma soon?

Anyway the signs say stay in and hold right now. I see Tom C posted some stuff from Trader Fred tonight showing a possible S&P breakdown in about a week. That might coincide with the Fed announcement? Perhaps that is the "sell the news" day, or perhaps one day before if the Fed chooses to hold steady.
 
Uptrend said:
View attachment 3749

We see that the VIX has moved below the 200 dma as well as broke below the trading channel. There is also some gap fill back in December 2007. The VIX is inverse to the $SPX, and IMO confirms the uptrend in the short-term as it is considered to measure the bearish level out there. We see the stow sto is still dropping but has not hit the floor level yet. All these indicators are bullish signs.

Also today the ISEE sentiment has increased to 118 and the 10 dma to 108. This is bullish psychology.

Tomorrow we might be up against the S&P breakout line, as I see the E-mini S&P 500 Stock Index (June '08) trading at 1373 tonight. Perhaps we will breakut toward the 200 dma soon?

Anyway the signs say stay in and hold right now. I see Tom C posted some stuff from Trader Fred tonight showing a possible S&P breakdown in about a week. That might coincide with the Fed announcement? Perhaps that is the "sell the news" day, or perhaps one day before if the Fed chooses to hold steady.
Click to expand...

Thanks Uptrend, I heard on CNBC some time ago that when the VIX hits
below 20, that the trend was upward and by sizable amounts, LongTerm.
Does your analysis concur with this ?
 
Yes, the VIX for the last 2 trading sessions has been hovering real close to 20 (just above by a fraction)
 
The VIX is heading for 16 before the end of May. I speculated on this possibility months ago.
 
Don't know about Monday. I am taking the gain and going to G. Am a little concerned about hovering near the breakout point. Think this may be a false warm-up, but could be real. There is some evidence for some more consolidation before we break out. It is a tough call. I am going with the money in the bank.
 
I exited the trade Friday, April 18, because I did not like the fact that the market could not breakout from the inverse H&S pattern. Although the candle is above the breakout line it has upper shadows. In addition the entire candle is not above, so we do not have support -one must wait until the close of Monday to find out which way we go. Also consider we made a monster move and the indices are extremely overbought. This push, pause, push move could be a flagpole for a third bullish flag in a row. However, it will take several trading days to more than a week to find out. If we have some retracement and consolidation and then push again before May 1, I will be unhappy with the hostage situation of the 2 IFT rule (now I can't trade until May). But the first rule is too preserve capitol in overbought markets. Will just have to wait for an entry point when May rolls around.

Month to date returns is 5.38% and now YTD returns is 2.82%

Holding G

Here is the chart:

View attachment 3765
 
View attachment 3775

Sometimes it is beneficial to look at multiple time scales to get a better picture. The chart is the spx weekly, where we see a bearish Harami Cross. Because the candlestick is still contained within the white body of the previous candlestick, I dont think you can call it an Evening Star. Hewever, after an uptrend, an Evening Star is also bearish. Basically these candlesticks are doji's, meaning there is a tug of war between buyers and sellers. I have circled previous red or black doji's and one can see a downtrend was more frequent afterwards than an uptrend.

Futures are trading down tonight.

Holding G
 
Uptrend,
I am finally back online after being out for a few days. I saw that you got out on Friday. I really appeciate your words and inputs which resulted in my first significant gain since Jan. OBTW, I ran on Fiday too but went to 50/50 on G/F since I had to make a quick call before you had a chance to reply. Anyway, thanks for your insight.
Steve
 
Uptrend:

I have a question with Stockcharts and would appreciate your input if you know the answer. What is the significance of a filled black candle on the stockcharts? I looked everywhere on their site and could not find the answer. TIA.
 
Hey NNUUT and RPM:

Actually red and black candlesticks are not the same thing - it is a little more complicated. It depends on the previous day closing prices as seen from stockcharts:

Finally, if you do enable the "Colored Prices" option for a SharpChart, here are the rules that we use:
  • If the previous day's closing value is less than or equal to the closing value for the current day, draw the current day's candlestick in black.
  • If the previous day's closing value is more than the closing value for the current day, draw the current day's candlestick in red.
Notice that these rules are subtly different from the rules for determining whether to draw a filled candlestick or a hollow candlestick. Those rules (stated in the first paragraph above) rely on the relationship of the opening price for the current day to the closing price of the current day. These subtle differences can lead to what I call "oxymoronic" candlesticks -- candles that are colored bullishly, but filled bearishly (i.e., a filled, black candle) or vice versa (i.e., a hollow red candle)

http://stockcharts.com/commentary/mailbag/mailbag20000809.html
 
Hi everyone. Lets look at the chart:

View attachment 3783

We have the familiar spx over the last few months with bollinger bands applied. What are bollinger bands, you ask?

Bollinger ... used a 20-period moving average, and then created bands that were two standard deviations wide. Those that remember their statistics might recall that two standard deviations encompass 95% of the occurrences in any normal distribution.

http://www.streetauthority.com/terms/b/bollinger-bands.asp

You can see the bands outline the top and bottom of the big trading channel. What is interesting to note is the 4 cricled areas during this downtrend. If you look closely you can see that each circled area is really an M pattern. In all cases except the 3rd one, the left side of the M pushes against the top bollinger band. The second side of the M is lower except for the last (current case). Furthermore, the outside legs of each M are longer than the V in between the peaks.

What does this mean? In the current case the market has hit the band twice, whcih shows some strength, but has failed to get above, which means we do not have a market continuation in all probability. Does it mean it can't happen? No! But the probability is against it. In fact there is more probability that the market will go down and test the lower band at around 1315 in the coming days. The first 2 circled areas went from high to low band and the third one almost did it. You can liken it to a meandering river. It is time to change course.

Holding G
 
Man, you are one amazing guy!!

You and Tom could trade commentaries - as today's reminds me of one of his giant "nuggets" he tries to put in terms I can understand.

I'll have to read over this one a few times to really get it down but it makes a lot of sense and definatley is all brand new to me.

Thanks for your incredible insights (much appreciated)
 
Thanks Steady!

View attachment 3789

I may have exited this trade a little early (last Friday April 18), but it is hard to know. The 20 dma and bollinger bands are moving up as well as the second side of a bearish M pattern. I can see a 3rd bullish flag in a row also developing, but then we see a fair amount of chart resistance. The 200 day moving averge is dropping while the indicies are rising. That may be where we are going. I considered that last week, when I exited the trade, but did not rule out an appointment with the 200 dma. Now if the market can pull back into the 20 dma, the market may rally to the 200 as another push. The move up would probably be in the 1420 area. But first I expect a few more days sideways trading and consolidation. We shall see.

Because of the stupid IFT trade rules, I cannot participate if this last move comes to early. IMHO if you are in the market, stay in for this last push. M patterns are bearish and the outside legs will drop big time. Also whenever the market hits the 200 dma for the first time, it will run away with a big drop. That is almost a sure bet, so be ready to pull the trigger.

Lets wait and see what develops.
 
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