Uptrend's Account Talk

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Uptrend,
First of all, I thank you for this information. Now, it's important for me to tell you that I need more help until I can have a better understanding of the way to use the cash future information to pick an entry/exit point. I am sure that others in our website will be equally thankful!

Frankly, I am unable to pay to sign-up for many pay sites; therefore, your continued and possibly daily posts will gain front-and-center importance if you will kindly keep posting you opinion as to what you see as the trend to follow. I realize that there is a 7 day free usage, but that will expire and I (and others here) will not have the benefit of the signals. I did notice that you did not enter the C fund last Friday, so judging by the market drop, you were probably looking at the S&P futures before noon Eastern time on Friday.

I want to take the opportunity to thank many other folks here, who take the time to post the most useful information that helps me decide what action to take. Please excuse me if I fail to mention someone by name, but I do follow the comments by Tom, Griffin, 12%, 350, Show-me, Nnutt, James with the P&F charts, Weatherweenie's market posts, TSPgo, Ebbnflow, Dr. Faustus, Paladin, Optionman, and so forth.

I think that the other day you posted another useful website, so let me reiterate again my appreciation to you and many of the other folks who have helped me reach some sort of rational decision. And, also, Thanks to Birchtree, who brings useful information and investment stability to the conversation. I do miss others, like Spaf. So Guys, make an appearance once in a while. We love you! Best wishes to all! :)

Uptrend said:
You can see the e mini futures contracts on www.prophet.net and then quotes - futures - minis S&P March 08 contract

Right now S&P at 1353. I need to see some improvement towards 1360 to play.
Click to expand...
 
Hessian,
Thanks for the eye-opener. It seems that the devil is in the details in defining which cycle started and when...?
 
Hi hessian
Your post #329 Elliot Wave Theory example is for an ascending bull market. But we are going the other way, and so the corrective ABC zigzag waves are going against the grain, or other words wave A and C go up, and then the downtrend resumes. Looking at my post #324 you can see we had a weak ABC zigzag correction pattern to the upside starting on Jan 22. As of Friday it appears we are now heading down on wave #1 of the downtrend. But are we?? I am not so sure - and that is because I don't think the C upwave is completed - and that is because we have not topped the early Feb highs at around 1400 (that is the top of the A wave). In EWT the C wave needs to go higher than the A wave.

So what I am saying is that the chart is strange, and we are perhaps having a fake-out to the downside. I am looking for a buy very soon. We should not test the lows, until we complete the C wave above the A wave (and in the channel I drew in post #324).

The futures are showing a little down tonight to the 1325 support area. If we hold this area tomorrow by IFT time, I am thinking about buying in.

Playing around loading music on my ipod tonight - now that is more fun!
 
Hi traders. Here is an alternative perspective to the supposed Bear market.
View attachment 3440
We agree that the Oct 07 high was wave 5 of Elliot wave theory. Remember that EWT uses pattern, ratios and time. We are only discussing pattern. If we remain in a Bull market, we would have a ABC correction as shown going to the Jan 08 lows, before a new 5 wave advance begins. So that puts us in wave #1 which is an advancing wave.

The second piece of info of EWT says that the bottom of wave #4 of the 5 wave high in a Bull market before the onset of a Bear market, marks the retreat of a Bear market.
View attachment 3441
That would be about 1225. But the problem is that if we are really starting a Bear cycle wave 1 almost gets us there. To me that is odd, and probably not believable. As I said in post #331, if this is a bear cycle, then we can count 5 waves down inside the 1 down (waves within waves) and also we can count an ABC corrective wave happening, but the C wave going up is not finsihed yet. Remember, 8 waves make a cycle; 5 + ABC. Any way you slice the bread, we must go up in the short term. If a Bull wave #1, and if a Bear C of ABC. Folks, both of these waves are up waves! So XXX the technicals; IMO get in the market and close your eyes!
 
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RPM:
We need to see how this trade develops. Upside for tomorrow. In the near term I am looking at getting above the 1345 chart resistance area and then the 20 dma at the 1350 area. If the trade continues in the coming days, then we have the 1370 resistance area to get through and then the 50 dma around 1377.

I note since early Feb we had penetrated the 20 dma 3 times to the downside. One more time busting through in a downslide and away we go to Jan lows and lower. Don't think it is right away though, as we must go bnack up through it first, and then see if it holds and we go higher. The Fri payroll # is bad, but so are expectations, so the market will brush off. For me this trade will probably end sometime late next week. We could even get 6%+ out of this move! It depends what happens at the support and resistance levels. There is potential to rally way up to over 1400, because that matches EWT and also the time dimension of EWT. The put/call ratio is 1.4 which is bullish as a contrarian.

Lets add it up. 1) Bad news but equals expectations Bullish 2) No real earnings reports Bullish 3) Put/call ratio Bullish 4) EWT pattern Bullish 5) EWT ratio (Fibs) Bullish 6) EWT time dimension Bullish

Conclusion: Go long
 
Looking back at the bear market in 2001 and the first fall
View attachment 3449
At 4 failures of lack of support and dropping through the 20 dma the 5th fall was a big one. You can also see there was one hit of the 50 dma and one time above before the big drop. Also note the relief rally took out the 20 and 50 to the upside and made an attempt the 200 dma There was also a double bottom.

Now contrast with the current situation:
View attachment 3450
We fell in Jan after busting the 20 dma for the 4th time. We have been above the 50 dma 2 times before the fall and pinned it from the underside one time since. So could the rally now continue above the 50 dma and pin the 200 before we fall big-time again? Or are we in a sideways trading pattern like March of 2001, (see above) before another big fall?
 
Uptrend,
I tried to post following as a PM, but no attachments possible.
You know I'm not proficientin this as you, and I do mostly believe w/ EWT that hindsight 20/20, but personally always found current wave interpretation more open/less clear.
Generally, I'm seeking to reconcile personal belief the markets have serious challenges near term, andso thinking of needing to considering different possiblities for "Wave" interpretation. Using your rough suggestion of a 1225 level, and current market situation, I added a red line to chart (below), as perhaps a way to reconcile both - seeking only your opinion, and ackowledging timelines factor into analysis. In my thinking at least a retest/likely lower near-term is needed -so wondering is below one posssibility of several currently, that might be considered as possible?? If so, how might short-term "waves" be counted?
VR:)
View attachment 3451
 
Ugly day and I was caught by a bit off guard. Hessian, I think you have a point. Look at the first chart on post #355. Look in the lower right corner of the circle. Back in 2001 the market fell heavy in Feb and then there was a sideways pause in March and then down big in April. You could be right, the downwave may not be finished. I will have to look at it again and count interior waves. That is the trouble with EWT; it is tricky to interpret.

We need to bounce above the Feb 7 lows tomorrow, or it is a confirmation that we are going down. There is also possible Fed plunge protection team intervention. Who knows what they are coming up with to save the markets. Not willing to sell just yet. The payroll # tomorrow might be better than expected, but we need that with some other kind of announcement. What might that be? Real bonds bailout?

Another technical I say yesterday, was that the number of new highs was <20. They say for a bull advance the # needs to be between 80-100 new highs a day. The storm seems to be never ending.
 
Well I guess I missed the Elliot wave pattern a little, but hey, nobody is perfect. Look at posts #332 and #336. I now believe the double bottom was part of the ABC pattern, and the down C big wave. Now we are in an upwave, but it won't go very far. Why? From the start of the ABC correction, the down waves have been 80 to over 100 points ($SPX) while the upwaves have been between 50-65 points. Coming off 1273 today we have gained up to 1320 or 47points. We have chart resistance at 1325-27 and the 20 dma at 1344 (dropping towards 1340). 1340-1273 = 67 points. Even though we have a weak market, IMHO we will hit the 20 dma and then retreat. I still think we are going to at lleast 1225. See my post #332 for reasons.

Now for the F fund and AGG. The F fund is in trouble. Look at the chart:
View attachment 3516
Just a few days ago the 20 dma has moved beneath the 50 dma. That is a sell signal. Back in June of last year you can see the nosedive when this occurred. You can also see that the AGG went up when the 20 went above the 50 day in August till March 08. Another thing that is curious is that the AGG seems to lead the market direction by about a month in a contrarian view. In June 07 the market was still going up, but jumping about while the AGG was going down. IF this pattern holds true we could see a market reversal in another month or so.

Conclusion: Sell C and S either tomorrow or when the 20 dma is reached. Also don't buy F.
 
Hi Uptrend,
I've been saving this, in looking at possible internal waves. I think the abc correction is still yet to occur (beyond wavecount shown -that still could get us to that 1225 level)...
View attachment 3518
I know this is rough, but I’m posting it hoping to draw constructive opinion/scrutiny. It’s a hybrid, much you’ll note, is what you previously identified/suggested (as best I could understand):

Close quote: The second piece of info of EWT says that the bottom of wave #4 of the 5 wave high in a Bull market, basically sets the “target” level, for the primary bottom, following the onset of a Bear market’s major wave (suggested previously). I just thought that this latter “wave 1” [previously, didn’t seem to me to go low enough]. Like you’ld agreed, it is difficult without advantage of 20/20 hindsight, to basically try to project ahead in time, given only facts of where we are today, and given this trying to mark the full retreat level (and I am assuming here that we are in a Bear market – so – as you’ld suggested, if this is the case, then a expect a retreat previous major wave#4, of about 1225.

Personally, I believe we have seen many indications that we are in a Bear market (such as every rally being sold, etc), so then, as you pointed out, that “interior waves” must be counted as follows…
In post #331, in a bear cycle, then we can count 5 waves down, inside the #1 [primary wave] down (“waves within waves”), and also then count an ABC corrective wave happening. (so we have to then watch for that C wave that eventually would go up.) Concluding that we must look for, 8 waves making a cycle; 5 + an "abc correction".

Again sole intent, is to say that I think the waves will be easily counted in hindsight, however at present, as events are still unfolding –we need to perhaps step back farther and maybe be needing to look farther out in time)! So just wishing to reconcile, and possibly get a best guess on the direction ahead.

Above, I’m posting as a “strawman” (meant entirely to be picked apart, kicked around, re-looked, or even tossed in the dumpster) -entire intent is solely to help further the above cause!
VR;)
 
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Hessian No problem! Always welcome debate and discussion! Just MO anyway. Heck everyone has an opinion.

The long and short of it is (HA HA in stock talk) the the current wave will give us a clue whether we finished a ABC correction pattern off the 2007 Oct highs to Jan 08 lows or March lows (in which case we are still in a bull market - and the current wave is either 1 or 3 in a 5 way up pattern -depending on how you wish to read the chart and also it needs to advance to at least 1400 in the up cycle) or we are going bear, and we finished a 5 way down either in Jan 08 or yesterday in which case we would now have an ABC pattern to go against the grain in an up cycle (5+ABC), before heading down again. If you have the 5 way down end in Jan, then Feb up = A , Mar down =B and now Mar up = C So bears, after this wave tops out, and I think this wave may hit the wall at the 20 dma around 1340 ish, we slide into the abyss of the slime pit. If the 5 down pattern ended yesterday hessian as you suggest we are then on an A up of the ABC correction cycle before really going down Luck out below! LOL
 
After a big run it is common to pause and have an indecision day. That is exactly what is going on today. The market is searching for direction and a little consolidation before moving on.

Market strength is still real weak. New highs yesterday were 28, whle new lows were 122, For market to have strength we need more than 100 new highs/day. For market to have real strength new lows need to be less than 30. We need a flip flop.

I see up till Fri or Mon in anticipation of the rate cut or until the 20 dma is hit Now however, there is less chance of a big cut, so that must weigh on investors minds. IMO if you are on board, prepare to jump ship.
 
It has been a rough ride over the last week or so, but we still are in an upwave. My guess is that we touch the 50 dma at 1344 ($SPX) and possibly go through it befoe heading back down. Could go as high as 1360 or so. Still maintaining that downside target is probably 1225, based on EWT of last 4th upwave in bull market.

Market strength is weak. For NYSE and NASDAQ New Hi's 28 37 and New Lo's 138 229. Should be the other way around with more than 80-100 new highs for a sustained uptrend, and less than 30 lows.

With options x, I expect the market to rally through Friday and possibly touch the 50 dma by then.

I believe the next big down will come in mid-April when the 1st Q earnings reports hit. Unless there is another big bank failure or something.

With limited trading, because of TSP new rules, I have been letting it ride. Scary ride though. Plan on reducing exposure on this Friday or possibly Thursday.
 
Uptrend said:
...With limited trading, because of TSP new rules, I have been letting it ride. Scary ride though. Plan on reducing exposure on this Friday or possibly Thursday.
Click to expand...

Don't forget, the markets closed Friday. Regarding your TSP account, whatever your doing for the weekend you'll need to do today.
 
Tomncath said:
Don't forget, the markets closed Friday. Regarding your TSP account, whatever your doing for the weekend you'll need to do today.
Click to expand...
Hey Tomncath,
Good note, but you're off by a day, check calender (today is Wed):D
-Still have till before noon on Thurs to rebalance TSP, far as I know. (I expect TSP will be closed Friday too, but the numb-nuts haven't posted anything yet, either way.:rolleyes:)

Uptrend,
Appreciate the analysis, as always, worthy of consideration.
-Additional note, Tokyo Exchange will be closed Thurs -on holiday.
Consider careful that Friday the OSMs will be running without benefit of any USM news....
(as noted).
VR
 
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