Uptrend's Account Talk

Another way to look at post #140 (if you are a bear and may possibly have more merit because it fits the big swings theme on the chart when you consider scaling) is that the Oct 31 2007 high is the 5th wave of the advance, and the recent low in Now to 1438 area (#8 circle) would be only #1 in a decline (so should be the #6 circle). Remember in Elliott wave theory you have a 3 step consolidation after a 5 step advence for a total of 8 swings in a sequence. It then repeats. You can also break the patern down to finer scales. So following this logic, we would now rebound as step #2, but will then have a lower low step below 1438 before we advance again Yuk!!

But either way you look at it, we are now due for an advance. Trust theory!

Might be argueable that, at a finer level, we have just completed the 3 waves since the last (bullish #5-high, being Oct 31).
At a finer level, I can easily count 3 downs, ea. having small corrections 3rd being yesterday. Think bears would buy this?
 
Zooming in further, and following Elliott wave theroy, we see that after Oct 31, following the zigzag down we have a 3 step decline to 1438. That means that now we will hve a 5 step zigzag upward move before another 3 step downward move.

View attachment 2590

We are beginning step 3 of the upward move. So we will advance, fall back and advance again. Also notice that on Friday a hammer fromed on the chart and the body is completely within the previous day. This is a bullish sign. Green lights for next week!
 
Hessian: See post #144. The zig zag down since Oct 31 could also be argued to be the first leg of a 3 down pattern in a bigger picture. Leg two would rise somewhere to like the 50 dma and then leg 3 would crash down below 1438 to a new lower low.
 
Uptrend,
OK, just to be clear, I am with you in analysis that I think uptred IS the direction we're heaed (again, nice analysis % illustration)

I was just playing "Devil's advocate" (bear), just to question how "they" might view this.
I can see both sides that you quite eloquently are pointing out (I think), but let me know if I've messed something...

On the Bull analysis, I am counting the 3 circles below - ones that are the 3 bottoms. Meaning new pattern starts again here (upward again).:)

On the bear side,
 
Uptrend,
OK, just to be clear, I am with you in analysis that I think uptrend is the direction we're headed (again, nice analysis % illustration)
I was just playing "Devil's advocate" (bear), just to question how "they" might view this.

Uptrend, I got dropped off login, router, something - please diregard previous post.

A couple points:
1. I agree with the larger picture - looks reasonable - And, not just just because I like your conclusion!:D

2. Playing devil's advo (a bear), if "they" count the Oct 31ish as a 5th advance point (even though its lower than previous) - does that mean points must be consecutive? And therefore the bottoms to follow must be consecutive too??

(I definiely need to go back to school for this EWT stuff, if I'm really going here!)

3. If you choose to look at a finer time/scale. Wouldn't you start at the early October high, and count/see how it looks from there?

BTW, that hammer from yesterday, Friday looks really nice!
 
A couple points:

2. Playing devil's advo (a bear), if "they" count the Oct 31ish as a 5th advance point (even though its lower than previous) - does that mean points must be consecutive? And therefore the bottoms to follow must be consecutive too??

3. If you choose to look at a finer time/scale. Wouldn't you start at the early October high, and count/see how it looks from there?

Hessian: Good catch. You are correct as the early Oct high is higher. However, in a longer timescale view they are the same! A smaller timescale that includes the early real Oct high may look like the following:

View attachment 2595

Here is the interesting thing. We are looking for a 3 step zig zag pattern that goes against the grain of the trend. As the timescale expands, smoothing occurs so we are really looking at the same 1438 point on a 3 zig zag down as shown on the chart from the Oct highs. Elliott wave analysis depends on waveform, ratios and time. It's neat technicals and I am still learning more about it myself.
 
If you start with the big uptrend in Aug 2006, you can then start counting the big swings or waves shown by circles. Wave 5 would be the Oct 31 2007 high.

Hessian: Not to confuse this further, but on post #140 I should have said the early Oct high instead of the Oct 31 high, because the little over a year timescale on the chart clearly shows a zig zag down, using Oct 31 as point #2. What I meant by my last post, was that for longer timescales there is blending in the zig zag movements.
 
Hey Uptrend
Guess the thing I was really thinking is - starting with the early Oct high, I think we made 3 zigs, 3 zags in other words 3 bottoms, - concluding the cycle - yes/no?

Real novce here, huh?
 
That is correct! Zig zag zig correction to 1438 from the early Oct high. So you could say the 5 3 pattern has been completed for a total of 8 cycles. And now we are due for a 5 pattern up. So then we have a 5 3 5 wave pattern in the big picture. 5 3 5 3 5 3... is the normal Elliott wave pattern. You can also have some alterations such as such as 3 3 5 patterns.

The Aug 2007 low is #4 in the 5 up pattern, before the 3 correction pattern that goes against the rising market. In Elliott wave theroy, for a bull market trianges can form when the #4 point is in place which would indicate trend. Looking at the base trendline, one could then argue that a pullback from current levels (assuming normal news) is not possible.
 
For Monday - Nov 19

Pros
Chart technicals look positive
Risk aversion is going away tracked by USD to JPY 111.04 (was 110 and below last week)
OEX put/call ratio is more bearish, 1.23 (play contrarian)
Wave theory says a rebound is in order
Negative news (play contrarian) ie CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21838822
http://www.cnbc.com/id/21837369
Seasonality is in our favor (around holidays are usually slam dunks)

Cons - None
It might be a little bumpy, and some allocation shifts due to chart technicals, but I am expecting an approximate 6 day hold, before another sell (return to G/F). Lets have a light volume up market. Lets go! :) :)
 
Uptrend,
Wanted to say BIG thanks for the lessons/primer into EWT.
Also for other indicators.
I'll also echo Paladin's agreement on seasonality.

BTW
Here is ink to charts, that give an addiional indicator - p&f charts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$EMW&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p55192775979
When chart comes up, go to bottom of the page, you'll note a point & Fgure button - taking you to its p&f chart . Clink that button to view that. Then > click the "Update" button.

P&F charts are just another indicator - Thing I like mostly is that can be updated at anytime thoughout any day (like before IFT time) - that show the trend, at that given moment - whether "bullish /bearish" is indicated . I find it a "check", before IFT times, and also on the nights before, for the following day.
VR.

PS -for Paladin, if interested in latter, just started a "class" on this at:
TSP Talk Forums > TSP Strategies > Technical Analysis > P&F Chart School
 
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Thanks Hession:
Let me try and summerize what little I know about Elliott wave theory, because some of the posts were kind of confusing.

1) Elliott wave theory uses market advances and declines (waves), ratios and time. We are focusing on waves. There are 8 waves in a cycle. Cycles repeat, but often in different ways.
2) In a bull market (like we are in) the normal pattern is 5 advancing waves and 3 waves that go against the trend that consolidate. It repeats. So the normal pattern is 5-3-5-3-5 Post #140 is the important one to look at, except to say that the text should say that the 5th advancing wave happened in early Oct, not Oct 31.
3) In a bull market wave #4 sets the trend. You can see that this is the August 2007 low on post #140. It forms triangles and, and a line can be drawn between wave #2 and wave #4.
4) Now since the top of the 5th wave in early Oct, we have had a three step wave pattern go against the trend. Wave 8 (before the cycle starts again) landed on the wave #2, #4 trendline confirming a slowing rising lower channel.
5) We don't know if we are on top of a mountain with wave #5 (early Oct) and are now entering a bear market. If we are, then the pattern would go 5-3-5-5-3-5 with two 5 patterns back to back. In other words a 5 wave decline with a 3 wave advance against the trend. If this is the scenario, then depending on how the timescale and ratios are viewed, we are probably 3 waves down on the first 5 wave pattern, before the 3 wave advance. But here is the important point: Even if we are; wave 4 must advance and then wave fall will fall back. I think we are on wave #4 so that means a temporary rebound, even in a bear market.
6) I am still going to believe we are in a bull market until 1430 is broken. You can see on post #140 that a new lower channel is intact with waves #2, #4 and #8. The market may be up longer than a temporary rebound. :) :)
 
Hey Uptrend,
I got all that last post. It is cool stuff.

I think we are basically still in a bull market (that is gonna see furher highs). So I see the 2, 4, 8 as the bottom trend line, as you do ("point 6").

- but I will be watchful for any break of that 1430 resistance, as you said, this whould indicate we're likely in a different/bearish pattern - 2 more legs down likely ("point 5").

I have been, and will continue monitoring your posts, because I have felt you have good grasp on technicals, and I wish to learn - I'm not here to just follow blindly. Please forgive typing errors, I not great at it, and as a result I have "timed out" a couple times, trying to get ideas in.
VR
 
Uptrend,

It's good to see someone else has an interest in Elliott Wave Theory. A few of our members have politely accused me of talking nonsense in the past.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
Thanks Birch!

For Mon
Tech will lead the market higher Monday Nov 19, led by HP with projected earning up 12% over last year. Story:

http://money.cnn.com//news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200711182102DOWJONESDJONLINE000346_FORTUNE5.htm

Also, this is probably good news:
"Biotechnology company Celgene will buy Pharmion for about $2.9 billion in stock and cash to
boost Celgene's push into the oncology field, the two companies said on Sunday"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/21872118

For Tues

Can't determine if the Fed release, the "more transparent Fed" economic forecast will be good or bad. Analysts are looking at the range of economic growth. If the range is too large, some FOMC members would have voted for slow growth, and could be viewed as bad. So, may skip to the I fund Tuesday and hopefully not a very large market move up in USM Mon, so no FV. The chart technicals show a homing pigeon for the EFA and that is bullish.
 
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Not a lot of steam today, and low volume so far. Going to ride this one. Nasdaq may go green by the end of the day.
 
We are testing the 1430's area. This is the basement. I was wondering when the test would come. Charts were proved wrong today. If we hold here, we will have a rally. If no,t I will bail to safety for a long long time.
 
We are testing the 1430's area. This is the basement. I was wondering when the test would come. Charts were proved wrong today. If we hold here, we will have a rally. If no,t I will bail to safety for a long long time.

May be academic (by close time today), but do we need to just touch 1430, intraday. or need to close below it??
 
We broke support in the 1430-1435 area so now we will head down to the 1380 area. I did not think this would happen, but markets have a mind of their own. We will need to redraw the lower support line. Fooled me, but so has most of this pullback. Gave up all of my 4th quarter gains, so far. Hanging on to the first 3 quarters.

I see something else on the charts today, that I knew about but overlooked. In all probability we will have a short rally, followed by a larger downleg to the next stop at 1380. That may be the basement, but who knows?

Since I missed getting back in by a day early, I will stay now stay invested until Friday after Thanksgiving. Probably out on Monday. Futures are green for the AM.

Weathering the storm, and learning how to survive in a downpour. :cool:
 
We are Finished

TSP to limit trades to 2 a month, plus jump to the G fund after that if you want. Effective right away to the 3000 frequent traders.

http://www.govexec.com/story_page.cfm?articleid=38616&dcn=todaysnews


I am bummed. May loan against the fund and day trade it. However, don't want to pay capital gains tax. If you retire you can roll to a IRa at a broker and electronically day trade (like going to Ameritrade).

Will need to sort out best course of action :sick::sick::sick:
 
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