Stocks moved higher yet again yesterday although the gains were not all created equally. The Dow had a big day gaining 111-points, while the S&P 500 gained about 0.5%, small caps +0.3%, and the I-fund lost ground after the dollar rebounded about 0.4%. Bonds were basically flat again.
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 300"]
[TD="align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 160"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.0063%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.01%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.56%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] +0.28%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"] -0.11%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 69%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"] [/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 (SPY) has been up 13 of the last 15 days. The trend is up and those not fighting it are racking up the gains. Unfortunately, if or when the first level of support breaks - whether it's by a news event or just some profit taking - it's a long way down to the bottom of the larger rising trading channel.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500 Index is now over 150-points above the 200-day EMA. Only once in the last year did it extend higher before pulling back.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow led the way today but it has been lagging the other major indices and is only now hitting the previous highs made in September. We showed a longer-term chart of the Dow yesterday and the question is whether it will break out to new highs, or pull back into the trading channel which goes back to May.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
October proved to be a very good month for stocks despite its historically troubled past. November, on the other hand, has a stellar looking seasonality chart with a very good record for the first three trading days.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
I rarely look at seasonality as a primary indicator. The exceptions might be around some of the major holidays. Seasonality is like a breeze while riding a bike. If the breeze is in your face (negative seasonality), it may slow you down. If it's at your back (positive seasonality), it may be an easier ride.
The intermediate-term 7 to 10 year bond fund has been consolidating and finding support on the 200-day EMA for the last five days. The yield on the 10-year Treasury continues to form a bear flag, which tend to break downward. That would be bullish for bonds and the F-fund.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Fed has an FOMC meeting this week but little is expected to come out of it. Obviously any surprises will be met with a move in the stock market.
In today's TSP Talk Plus report we go over a few more charts including small caps, the Transports and the dollar. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
