Unemployment Rate over 12 Month MA Strategy

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for February:​

[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Rate:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]6.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]8.57%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Trend:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]still going up[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for March:
[TABLE="class: cms_table, width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Rate:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]6.0%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]8.70%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Trend:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]still going up[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

 

[FireWeatherMet]

I'm a bit confused?
Unemployment has been going down steadily since last summer.
Whats going "UP"?

 

[nnuut]

I'm a bit confused?
Unemployment has been going down steadily since last summer.
Whats going "UP"?

The new TAXES will take care of that, have patience, down is on it's way.

 

[nasa1974]

The new TAXES will take care of that, have patience, down is on it's way.

If we keep reducing taxes especially to large corporations and the 1% how do you propose we get anything fixed or built?

 

[nnuut]

That's the economy that's going DOWN.

 

[Cactus]

I'm a bit confused?
Unemployment has been going down steadily since last summer.
Whats going "UP"?

The value of the 12 month moving average has been going up since April 2020. That is the trend mentioned here. Those 4 months of double digit unemployment on the heals of the lowest unemployment rates since the early 1960s has had a profound effect on the moving average.

Starting next month these high unemployment numbers are going to drop out of the average, so I would expect the trend to reverse. Those who strictly followed the crossover signal and got back in the market last October have made quite a profit in the mean time, though.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for April:
[TABLE="width: 350"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Rate:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]6.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]7.98%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 91"]Trend:[/TD]
[TD="width: 132"]turned, and now going down[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
​

According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for May:
[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD]Rate:[/TD]
[TD]5.18%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD]7.36%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Trend:[/TD]
[TD]Still going down[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for June:​

[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 110"]Rate:[/TD]
[TD="width: 190"]5.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 110"]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD="width: 190"]6.92%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 110"]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD="width: 190"]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 110"]Trend:[/TD]
[TD="width: 190"]Still going down[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.​

 

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for July:
[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 113"]Rate:[/TD]
[TD="width: 187"]5.4%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 113"]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD="width: 187"]6.52%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 113"]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD="width: 187"]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 113"]Trend:[/TD]
[TD="width: 187"]Still going down[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
According to this system we should now be fully invested in the market.

 

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for August:​

[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 116"]Rate:[/TD]
[TD="width: 184"]5.2%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 116"]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD="width: 184"]6.25%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 116"]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD="width: 184"]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 116"]Trend:[/TD]
[TD="width: 184"]Still going down[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

According to this system we should be fully invested in the market.​

 

[Cactus]

Here is the unemployment rate for October:
[TABLE="width: 300"]
[TR]
[TD="width: 119"]Rate:[/TD]
[TD="width: 181"]4.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 119"]12 MMA:[/TD]
[TD="width: 181"]5.81%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 119"]Crossover:[/TD]
[TD="width: 181"]rate below 12 MMA[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD="width: 119"]Trend:[/TD]
[TD="width: 181"]Still going down[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
According to this system we should be fully invested in the market.

 

[Tsunami]

Don't know where Cactus went, but I just dredged this thread up in my old bookmarks and thought I'd post that the UE rate finally crossed above the 12-month moving average earlier this year.
So a major recession and market sell signal warning is in effect per this method of timing the market...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA&p=D&yr=25&mn=0&dy=0&id=p46880709107&a=442365228

https://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2016/02/uetrend/