Stocks were flat to moderately higher on Thursday and it was typical holiday type action with light trading volume with a positive bias. The Dow gained just a fraction while the broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq saw more solid gains.
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The S-fund was slightly positive despite the Russell 2000 closing in negative territory. The I-fund and bonds had good days.
The SPY (S&P500 / C-fund) posted a new closing high on Friday and it has now fought back multiple attempts to push it back down, but officially this is no failed breakout this time as we saw a few times over the last several weeks.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow never really did post any failed breakouts like the S&P, but it is only now reaching the highs made on March 2.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) continues to climb, but still lags the caps.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE index / I-fund) is still about 2-points away from its all-time high made in mid-2014.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Thursday and Friday of this week has a modestly positive seasonal bias, then the Tuesday after the holiday tends to give a little back, but by next Thursday and Friday the stronger part of the holiday bias kicks in.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Seasonality is not generally a primary indicator unless surrounding major holidays, and being that many folks - particularly on Wall Street - head out to tend to their summer homes and / or take vacation time, I consider Memorial Day weekend one of the majors, so I pay a little more attention to this data.
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) had a nice day Friday as it recaptured the longer-term support line. Is this one of those pre-holiday reversal that will adjust back next week? Could be, but bonds are pretty oversold at this point and a little relief is not a surprise.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
From www.tsp.gov: "Some financial markets will be closed on Monday, May 25th in observance of the Memorial Day holiday. The Thrift Savings Plan will also be closed. Transactions that would have been processed Monday night (May 25th) will be processed Tuesday night (May 26th), at Tuesday's closing share prices."
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the Sentiment Survey Results and the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading! Enjoy your long holiday weekend.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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