Typical low volume tepid pre-holiday move higher

Stocks rallied modestly on Monday with the Dow gaining 72-points with smaller gains for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Small caps led on the upside again while the I-fund ran into some strength in the dollar to hold it back a bit.
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This week tends to be lighter in trading volume and the bulls usually have an advantage, although because of the light volume, any kind a bad news can bring about a volatile reaction. As mentioned yesterday, Wednesday and Friday have the largest historical positive bias, but it fades after the holiday weekend.

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Chart courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) has been moving sideways since last Thursday's big rally. A case can be made for a bull flag forming and with this being a strong holiday week for stocks, any resistance may be flimsy as the bears tend to hibernate this week.

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The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) made a new closing high yesterday and also has a nice looking large bullish flag formed but we'll have to see if that 1310 holds it back again.

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TheEAFE (I-fund) was actually down on the day because of a rally in the dollar. I'm using the EFA chart today because the $IEE EAFE Index chart had a strange bar on it that didn't look right - unless there was a major sell-off and rebound overnight on Sunday?

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The High Yield Corporate Bond Fund was up slightly but it is still trying negotiate the 50-day EMA, which it has now closed below for 9 straight days.

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The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) was down slightly and dancing above and below the 50-day EMA while in a narrowing apex.

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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley


Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php


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