06/04/13
Stocks opened higher on Tuesday, but they could not hold on as we saw the first negative close on a Tuesday all year. The Dow lost 76-points and the losses were fairly broad - although the I-fund closed with a nice gain.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.71%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.87%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 tested the top and bottom of its closing falling wedge. Falling wedges usually negotiate their way to an upside breakout so this doesn't look as bearish as it might seem. I would prefer to see the 50-day EMA being tested here instead of being almost 2% below current levels, but some of the market leaders are giving us that bullish wedge right at key support levels.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
For example, the Dow Transportation Index ETF has produced a falling wedge pattern and it has also found support at the 50-day EMA. Throw in some support from the March and April highs (old resistance) and this looks pretty good - as long as the support holds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The oscillating, overbought / oversold type indicators are nearing extreme oversold readings: Readings that have produced bottoms this year. But we know we haven't had any kind of real correction this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You can see that these indicators can get more extreme when we get some more serious selling so the question is, are we seeing another typical minor 2013 buyable dip, or are we seeing the start of an overdue more serious pullback / correction? The support lines on the charts should help us answer that question.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks opened higher on Tuesday, but they could not hold on as we saw the first negative close on a Tuesday all year. The Dow lost 76-points and the losses were fairly broad - although the I-fund closed with a nice gain.
[TABLE="width: 88%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD]
[TD="align: center"]Daily TSP Funds Return[TABLE="width: 152"]
[TR]
[TD]G-Fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.0043%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]F-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.16%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]C-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.54%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]S-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]-0.71%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]I-fund:[/TD]
[TD="align: right"]+0.87%[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[TABLE="width: 80%, align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"]More returns[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The S&P 500 tested the top and bottom of its closing falling wedge. Falling wedges usually negotiate their way to an upside breakout so this doesn't look as bearish as it might seem. I would prefer to see the 50-day EMA being tested here instead of being almost 2% below current levels, but some of the market leaders are giving us that bullish wedge right at key support levels.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
For example, the Dow Transportation Index ETF has produced a falling wedge pattern and it has also found support at the 50-day EMA. Throw in some support from the March and April highs (old resistance) and this looks pretty good - as long as the support holds.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The oscillating, overbought / oversold type indicators are nearing extreme oversold readings: Readings that have produced bottoms this year. But we know we haven't had any kind of real correction this year.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
You can see that these indicators can get more extreme when we get some more serious selling so the question is, are we seeing another typical minor 2013 buyable dip, or are we seeing the start of an overdue more serious pullback / correction? The support lines on the charts should help us answer that question.
Thanks for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at TSP Talk Market Commentary
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
