Tsunami's Account Talk

[Tsunami]

Thanks Khotso...not totally tongue-in-cheek, my office is rather lax about internet use if it's within reason, and hey, isn't anything to do with the TSP "work-related" LOL?...
As a follow-up to my post about buying TZA and QQQ puts, sold both for a profit...the latter a nice 129% profit! I didn't have the nerve to turn around and go long with calls though.
And as for the TSP, unless there's a total collapse overnight yet again, odds are good that I'll use my 2nd IFT for August to jump back into stocks tomorrow. I'm thinking the scenario shown by these guys is playing out....
The Art Of Chart | A collaboration between Richard Chappell aka Springheel Jack of www.channelsandpatterns.com (shjackcharts on twitter) and Stan Nabozny forecasting moves in price and time on equity indices, bonds, precious metals, commodities other

 

[userque]

Thanks Khotso...not totally tongue-in-cheek, my office is rather lax about internet use if it's within reason, and hey, isn't anything to do with the TSP "work-related" LOL?......

I too appreciate what you do, especially lately!:smile:

But, if I am properly picking up what Khotso is putting down, then I think you misunderstand her point.

After some un-/under-employed gubmint-worker-hater--for sh*ts and giggles--sends these posts, along with a well written letter, to their shiny, new, young, looking-for-some-action-to-put-notches-on-their-belts Representatives, we'll see how long that lasts. :blink:

 

[Cactus]

Hmmm, yes, how many of us already have TSPTalk filtered out for us a work?

 

[Tsunami]

Multiple T's are running out between now and Monday 8/25:
Jeffrey Young's Public Chart List - Jeffrey Young - Public ChartList - StockCharts.com
(also note chart 9B on page 2 which fits my expectations for the next year perfectly)

Which fits Tom McClellan's range for a major top over the next week as others have posted. He first posted his August top prediction back in early May...
Eurodollar COT's Leading Indication - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
Hmm, I notice a bit of slight-of-hand there...in May his chart said "early" August, now it just says August...
Market timer Tom McClellan sees stocks set up for

We're also moving into a negative 2-week lunar period: https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/performance/

Real estate has been one of the only drivers of the rally lately, and Armstrong is predicting a peak now then a long downturn lasting 18 years...
Real Estate | Armstrong Economics

Always lots of reasons to be nervous!

 

[Tsunami]

Looks like this mornings panic finally mustered up enough fear and panic to light the candle and get the S&P 500 to new highs by month's end.

>> Edit just 10 minutes later...heck, at this rate (the index's have shot up a half-percent in 10 minutes after digesting the Fed minutes, apparently the world will not end yet) by early next week we could reach the inverse head and shoulder's target of about 2160, which is where I want to bail out.

 

[Tsunami]

Could get quite a bit more painful, but I cancelled my IFT to go to G today....this drop should bottom by Tuesday I think and then rocket higher as the pessimism is just way overdone and the talk of a crash is so widely broadcast now that I just don't see it happening. A drop below 2000 could change my mind though.

 

[OBXTrader]

Brave move. Guessing it's because you would be out of EFT's? Had you considered a 50% withdrawal like Clester does?

Could get quite a bit more painful, but I cancelled my IFT to go to G today....this drop should bottom by Tuesday I think and then rocket higher as the pessimism is just way overdone and the talk of a crash is so widely broadcast now that I just don't see it happening. A drop below 2000 could change my mind though.

 

[Tsunami]

Brave move. Guessing it's because you would be out of EFT's? Had you considered a 50% withdrawal like Clester does?

Yep, I'd be out of IFT's and I don't want to miss what I expect to be an initial sharp rebound next week, starting by Tuesday at the latest I think (hope).

 

[Tsunami]

After a lot of reading I'm convinced that the third bear market of this century is underway, and for now at least I think McClellan will get it right again and it will bottom in the vicinity of April 2016.
Eurodollar COT Says Ugly Drop Is Still Ahead of Us - Free Weekly Technical Analysis Chart - McClellan Financial
I like that projection since it matches projections using entirely different methods from two other gurus including the late Terry Laundry who way back in 2012 project a major low in April 2016 using his 76-week and 7-year cycles which both coincided with a that timeframe.

How low will it go? Who knows, for now I'll guess 50% of the gains from 2009 will be erased, so that's 1400 on the S&P 500. Ouch. In the short run though a very sharp rally should be near, though it might not start until the 1885 area or even worse if things really get stupid to the downside.

Ciovacco's charts at about the 6 minute mark are a good reason not to expect a "V" bottom with new highs though, not this time, the internals are too week for that and I suspect the rally will peter out around the 2000-level.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_kKT1xt08kE&feature=player_embedded

 

[FogSailing]

Good insight Tsunami. And thanks for sharing your links on Elliott Wave and PUG. Was surprised to see you leave F and jump back into equities. If this is a Primary Wave 4 down, we could be in this thing for quite a while and shorter well timed market "IFTs" will become critical for TSPers. That is very difficult to do with our system. Buckle up your seat belts!

FS

 

[Tsunami]

Was surprised to see you leave F and jump back into equities.
FS

In hindsight, me too. I was resolved to follow my seasonal strategy and stay in the F fund until an obvious significant low in September or October, but couldn't resist trying to grab another 2% or so I thought was coming and get closer to my 8% annual goal. Now all of a sudden I'm in negative territory, and maybe made things worse by bailing out to G on Friday. That silly stone-age deadline of having to make IFTs four hours before the close got me again. Had I known how bad the day was going to finish I probably would have stayed in anticipating a very sharp rally this coming week. Some indicators are at oversold extremes rarely seen.

 

[Tsunami]

Yet another bloggers model predicting a bottom in the spring of 2016:
Econocasts: 2015.08.14 DJIA Cycle Model Chart
It's really gotten ahead of the model in the last few days though obviously, and so the Dow needs a bounce up to around 17000.

Looking like today's rally was a wave 4, now one last washout to a low tomorrow? Anyone that got in today should be happy by the end of the week, assuming this isn't a 1929 style crash...I just don't see any fundamentals that support anything like that though.

I can't believe the crazy deals on ETFs this morning...eg on VBK and PKW...I was chasing them up but never got filled when they were down as much as 35%. I imagine those early trades will be cancelled though since the prices were definitely not in line with reality. That needs to get fixed pronto.

 

[Tsunami]

My hunch is there will be one, or maybe even two more lower lows if this is a wave A down of a larger bear market. Comparing to late 2007/early 2008 in this chart, we may be at the equivalent of about the first week in January 2008. If so, then we're in a wave 4 consolidation, and will get a drop to a few points below yesterday's lows...then maybe a larger consolidation and another drop to the low 1800s or even the upper 1700s if we follow that pattern of early 2008. That nice juicy rally is coming (perhaps retracing 62% of the entire fall from 2135), and I hope it holds off until September so I can get a piece of it, but timing it is really tough.

Print SharpCharts from StockCharts.com

 

[FogSailing]

I'm in the same boat Tsunami. Also think your analysis aligns with my thinking that we could go to 1720 if this is a Primary Wave 4. I'm on the Lily Pad until September. No way to have any control on the timing but I think this issue will need several weeks to hit bottom. The chaos in China continues and who knows what the real story is. Folks are getting shell shocked so I expect some investor reluctance about jumping back in too soon. All the best.

FS

 

[Tsunami]

The wave B rally is moving with lightening speed. At this rate the entire decline could be over this fall.

Blame the "Saros Cycle" I guess...
https://lunatictrader.wordpress.com/2013/03/06/the-saros-cycle-and-the-stock-market/
Hmm, I don't see the November 2015 solar eclipse he mentions though...but there will be a good one crossing the U.S. in August 2017...
Solar and Lunar Eclipses Worldwide

For anyone familiar with Tim Wood, apparently the bear market he's been longing for has finally starting per his work...
http://audio.marketviews.tv/wood.mp3

 

[Tsunami]

https://twitter.com/PUGStockMarket/status/637313304600440832/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

 

[Tsunami]

Even though today's drop is just what I was hoping for to get back in, I lost my nerve and cancelled my IFT to go to the C fund. Looking for an opportunity that doesn't feel so much like gambling.

 

[Wiff007]

Even though today's drop is just what I was hoping for to get back in, I lost my nerve and cancelled my IFT to go to the C fund. Looking for an opportunity that doesn't feel so much like gambling.

I agree I want to jump in too, however I am waiting to see if we drop again tomorrow.

 

[jpcavin]

The wave B rally is moving with lightening speed. At this rate the entire decline could be over this fall.

I was hoping it'd be over by this afternoon. :laugh:

 

[Tsunami]

And now I changed my mind yet again...going 100% C at the close. Gulp.

Looking for a further decline into this afternoon, bottoming at no lower than 1900....I hope. Then hoping for a 5-6% rally to 2030ish to bail out and be back in the green for the year. Otherwise I guess I'm a sacrificial lamb to those that are shorting the market and getting rich.

The pessimism is really extreme again, currently sitting at 9: Fear & Greed Index - Investor Sentiment - CNNMoney