tsptalk's Market Talk

tsptalk.....I like overreactive spikes to news. Sounds like an opportunity? :sick: gulp


Sure hope you are right....
I just don't trust ole Putin.
He is not the type to give up on Ukraine easily...
An all out invasion would be gutsy but I don't put it past him.
We may get a snap back rally or more 3-5% pullback ??
Sure wish I was in cash or F Fund.
 
The market needs to stabilize here to mirror the April "bear flag looking" low. In late Jan. / early Feb. we saw a sharp bear flag breakdown, then an immediate rally.

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That's a good sign. :D

I wrote in today's commentary that the normal safe havens (bonds, gold, oil) aren't rising like we might expect during a sell-off. Well, gold is up $22/oz this morning. Someone was listening. :)

I noticed yesterday that NUGT was looking attractive but don't like that kind of unpredictability so I let it be...coulda, woulda, shoulda...oh well.

Yesterday afternoon I also noticed that Utilities got hit pretty hard. Prior to this I'd noticed that utilities have been somewhat more resilient to the minor sell-offs. Not sure if it is a sign of anything but could be noteworthy. I believe some traders use Utilities, with often generous dividends, as a short-term safe haven.
 
Today is a 2.50 Bil., FED POMO day. Typically SPX can depend on 10 point gain on these days.
Time will tell if that gain can hold and we work closing the open gaps up to about 1960 level..
Or will the rally be sold before then ??
 
Today is a 2.50 Bil., FED POMO day. Typically SPX can depend on 10 point gain on these days.
Time will tell if that gain can hold and we work closing the open gaps up to about 1960 level..
Or will the rally be sold before then ??

Or did it, the rally, happen yesterday in anticipation?
 
As I mentioned in today commentary, the small gap looked primed to get filled, but it really needs to hold. So far so good in the first 20 minutes of trading. Buyers "should" step up here or we have a different kind of market on our hands.

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Tom, thanks for chart below...

With the daily volatility increasing, I'll be interested to see just where these Markets close...
 
Ouch! Big drop on news out of Russia / Ukraine. It looks like an initial overreaction and we could get a snap back, but the fact that the market is willing to sell that quickly if there's an escalation in that region, probably means we won't rally too strongly into a Friday close today.
 
The breakout in bonds and continued low yields had to mean something. Today we got the answer to, can stocks and bonds prices continue to go up at the same time? The 10 yr German Bund is under 1%? Wow.
 
Breakout in the Nasdaq 100...

081814a.gif



The 7 - 10 year Treasuries are trying to hold the short-term rising trend, created by the breakout earlier this month...

081814b.gif
 
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