tsptalk's Market Talk

[James48843]

No bounce. I’m thinking this morning tried to bounce without success, so we are going to get some fear withdrawals tomorrow, and at least another 2% -3% down over the next two days. I don’t see the bottom yet in sight.


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[tsptalk]

No bounce. I’m thinking this morning tried to bounce without success, so we are going to get some fear withdrawals tomorrow, and at least another 2% -3% down over the next two days. I don’t see the bottom yet in sight.

We're at fairly extreme oversold levels. I think a capitulation sell-off could trigger a short-term low and bounce, even if its not the bottom. The futures re down sharply and that could spark it. Those positive opens we had just won't do that. We may need the puking indicator to make an appearance. uke:

 

[James48843]

I think the 3075-3045 range is where a temporary settlement will be- maybe tomorrow's trading (thursday).. That's both a 200 day moving average and a resistance point on the chart. A bounce up from there is likely, but I don't know how big or how long it will last before dropping again. I'm staying in safety and not going to try catching it.

 

[James48843]

I think the 3075-3045 range is where a temporary settlement will be- maybe tomorrow's trading (thursday).. That's both a 200 day moving average and a resistance point on the chart. A bounce up from there is likely, but I don't know how big or how long it will last before dropping again. I'm staying in safety and not going to try catching it.

Wow. Off -2.13% right off the bat at the open, and hitting that 200 day moving average. I was thinking it would at least take a couple of hours to hit that level.

I’m glad I’m sitting on the sidelines. This time I’m definitely going to wait until things slow down and settle before getting back into stocks. I do not see settlement any time soon. At all.

Be careful out there!


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[cmil1212]

With two ifts left for month (been parked in F), i'll probably pull the trigger for a quick bounce especially if things are still negative closer to noon. Probably C fund.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[bmneveu]

With two ifts left for month (been parked in F), i'll probably pull the trigger for a quick bounce especially if things are still negative closer to noon. Probably C fund.

Good luck with that. Notice what happened to yesterday's morning bounce.

 

[jonfresno]

It's only a loss on paper, it's only a loss on paper, it's only a loss on paper...

Good lord, did I catch a falling knife or what?!?

 

[tsptalk]

Wow! Could be a good short-term indicator for stocks if this bounce holds here...

 

[tsptalk]

It's only a loss on paper, it's only a loss on paper, it's only a loss on paper...

Taking away your paper gains?

To avoid paper losses, I've gone to e-statements. :laugh:

I've got a million of them. :ban:

 

[tsptalk]

We're seeing a nice positive reversal, but it's not always good to trust an early (in the day) reversal. There's too much time for the bears to sell again in the afternoon.

 

[jonfresno]

We're seeing a nice positive reversal, but it's not always good to trust an early (in the day) reversal. There's too much time for the bears to sell again in the afternoon.

Crazy, the transports are oh so slightly positive now after being down almost 5%?

 

[tsptalk]

We're seeing a nice positive reversal, but it's not always good to trust an early (in the day) reversal. There's too much time for the bears to sell again in the afternoon.

OK, not surprisingly the early reversal failed. The final hour gives the bulls another chance. Let's see what they've got. Otherwise, the bears will pounce!

 

[tsptalk]

:Flush:

:Flush:

:Flush:

 

[tsptalk]

 

[Mcqlives]

Wow...Your SARS chart got me thinking....so I just scratched out a 50 and a 200 EMA overlay on a 6 month SPX Chart. Threw in ^DJT as a potential future-cast. If that chart I just sketched is right, there is one really ugly bear still waiting to eat any bull that comes out. Have to trade nimble on anything that presents because I don't think there are any long bounces to be made until we find support. Tomorrows action will really be informative.

 

[bmneveu]

Looks like a previous high in the 950 range, lowest low around 790, for a loss of ~17%. For comparison, right now we are down ~12% (2978 from 3393).

90 days later they were in the 1020 range for a ~29% gain.

Great find Tom!

 

[James48843]

I would also throw out that back when SARS was all rage- that drop leading into March 20, 2003 was actually the Invasion of Iraq. The war started on March 20, and that is why the bottom is seen that day on the stock chart, NOT necessarily SARS.

Although SARS was in the news then, it paled compared to news about the war. What we are seeing today with COVID-19 should not be compared directly with 2003- because SARS wasn’t that big of a deal then, the war was.


I also think we got far less news via internet in 2003 than we do today. We have much more rapid information flow going today. That might make for faster market swings.

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[fedgolfer]

We may see some short term snap back rallies, but with noon IFTs it may be difficult to lock those quick gains in with the VIX moving all the needles so quickly. Personally, I would only dabble in the oversold bounces in a nimble trading account. For TSP we're at least going to the the long term support line at some point in the near future. This is a golden & death cross long term chart. We're not even on the oversold slow stochastics. I'd only consider buying stock once we hit that support line, and if the slow stochastics are sub-20 and the VIX has a 60 handle on it... that's buying fear.

Take the emotion out, we've been a bloated pig for a while now.

 

[jimijr]

If you're in, stay in. Keep buying ever-more worthless shares in ever-greater amounts to maintain your percentages, you're getting a bargain. Then when it reverses you'll climb out faster than you went down. This is what saved me in the Great Recession, got run over but kept buying, had no choice really. I retired as planned 1/1/11. Note I had 18 months to recoup, you'll need all of that and maybe more in this case.