tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Right now the bears are selling the rallies, as traders do in down trending markets. This scares out those trying to buy the dips and / or those who held all this time and capitulate ("I give up") and sell.

Clearly we weren't there yet this morning as we saw the seller of rallies show up again. But eventually they run out of bullets. The market rallies and the shorts get hurt and they have to buy back too. And it's over. Then there's the retests, etc., so it's a process and it takes a little time.

 

[tsptalk]

There's been some concerns over earnings with interest rates rising so we may be seeing a pre-earnings "sell the rumor" situation. The question is, will we get the "buy the news" when they start rolling out later this month?

 

[James48843]

I'm thinking that the markets are experiencing their first big tumble since the President took office- and many investors aren't used to seeing a drop like what we had this week, and are confused as to what to do. We have lots of signals and signs that contradict each other, - taxes, tariffs, slowdowns, layoffs, new orders, new trade agreements agreed to, and other trade agreements faltering. All at the same time, leads to confusion, and uncertainty. Toss in a big dip, and people worry. And stocks drop like a rock.

Of course, if I had simply followed the wonderful indicators and programs available on this site, instead of going with my own gut, I wouldn't have lost the $70,000 I lost since last week. But then again, I wouldn't feel so as good about the $hundred bucks and change it costs to subscribe to the premium service available on this website, which , as we all know, would have saved me that $70K loss had I followed it more religiously.


Instead, I went with my gut, and now have been toasted, once again. :-O


Oh well.

Cheers!

 

[weatherweenie]

Depends on the premium service.

I'm thinking that the markets are experiencing their first big tumble since the President took office- and many investors aren't used to seeing a drop like what we had this week, and are confused as to what to do. We have lots of signals and signs that contradict each other, - taxes, tariffs, slowdowns, layoffs, new orders, new trade agreements agreed to, and other trade agreements faltering. All at the same time, leads to confusion, and uncertainty. Toss in a big dip, and people worry. And stocks drop like a rock.

Of course, if I had simply followed the wonderful indicators and programs available on this site, instead of going with my own gut, I wouldn't have lost the $70,000 I lost since last week. But then again, I wouldn't feel so as good about the $hundred bucks and change it costs to subscribe to the premium service available on this website, which , as we all know, would have saved me that $70K loss had I followed it more religiously.


Instead, I went with my gut, and now have been toasted, once again. :-O


Oh well.

Cheers!

 

[tsptalk]

Depends on the premium service.

I know I sound like a broken record because I mention this often, but one of the worst things someone can do is jump from one service to another because one is doing better at any given time. When one gets "hot", another may be cool. You're in the service that may be lagging so you jump in the hot one only to start having that one cool off while the one you left starts getting hot. You jump back, having missed that hot streak, and the cycle continues.

As a contrarian investor, doing the opposite may actually be a better move... jump into a lagging service and out of a hot serve. Maybe you can catch both hot streaks.

I don't know about that last one, but I've seen the top instance happen repeatedly.

 

[weatherweenie]

Agreed.

I was responding to James' statement that if he had followed the premium service he would have avoided a significant loss.

Like anything with investing, that's not always going to be the case.

I know I sound like a broken record because I mention this often, but one of the worst things someone can do is jump from one service to another because one is doing better at any given time. When one gets "hot", another may be cool. You're in the service that may be lagging so you jump in the hot one only to start having that one cool off while the one you left starts getting hot. You jump back, having missed that hot streak, and the cycle continues.

As a contrarian investor, doing the opposite may actually be a better move... jump into a lagging service and out of a hot serve. Maybe you can catch both hot streaks.

I don't know about that last one, but I've seen the top instance happen repeatedly.

 

[tsptalk]

Gotcha. I wasn't really directing that at you. You've been around a long time and have probably seen it all.

 

[tsptalk]

Lots of churning and burning near the 200-day EMA. The bears are still around, trying to go after the wounded bulls, but they've used a lot of energy so it's not as easy as it was for them last week. The rally sellers and dip buyers may due battle for a few days before one relents.

 

[tsptalk]

The financials continue to lag and are testing the 2018 lows again, but this area has held each time. Support appears firm since it held again, however a breakdown would probably get ugly so it must hold.

 

[tsptalk]

Yields are up slightly this morning on the strong economic data, but that pushes the 10-year toward 3.2% again where there is an open gap. Support near 3.15% looks solid.

If this rally is going to hold the bulls probably don't want to see this move over 3.25% very quickly. A slow move higher would be better like a frog in a heating pot of water. Put it in a pot of boiling water and it reacts violently. Slowly heat the water and it acclimates.

 

[tsptalk]

As I mentioned in today's commentary, a quick retest of the lows is not uncommon, but right now there's a little battle going on in the S&P between the descending resistance line off the highs, and the new rising support line.

 

[tsptalk]

The financials are rallying again today. They've been lagging but the 2018 lows have held again.

 

[tsptalk]

The yield on the 10-year Treasury rallied back over 3.2% earlier, filled an open gap, then backed off. I don;t know if the spike in yields had anything to do with today's selling, but I'm sure it added to it. Let's see if the continue to back off. Obviously there can be some bond buying (yields falling) when stocks drop hard, so it may be a case of the tail wagging the dog.

 

[tsptalk]

The market is doing fine today, but the S&P is hitting and holding at some descending resistance so far.

 

[tsptalk]

The small caps and the Nasdaq are outperforming the large caps today, and the S-fund chart has so far been successful testing the lows earlier this month. At least for now, but today's rebound off the lows must hold.

 

[tsptalk]

The Transports are at the highs of the day after a successful test of the lows. Promising, but the day's not over yet.

 

[tsptalk]

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm concerned that the low and semi-reversal today came a little too early and the bears may make another attempt to push the indices to their lows again before the close.

Was anyone puking this morning? uke:

That would be a good sign. If not, we may get there later.

 

[wavecoder]

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm concerned that the low and semi-reversal today came a little too early and the bears may make another attempt to push the indices to their lows again before the close.

Was anyone puking this morning? uke:

That would be a good sign. If not, we may get there later.

Honestly I think the downtrend has been established and we're in 'sell the rip' territory. Something about this market as a whole seems a lot worse than that correction in February, maybe the big one's finally here? We were overdue for a bear market afterall.

To me, the concerning thing is literally no market sector I've looked at appears bullish to me.

 

[tsptalk]

An interesting push lower so no upside follow-through yet to yesterday's positive reversal. The weak close on Tuesday seems to be controlling the momentum to start the day.

The VIX has peaked at 23 this morning (obviously it could go higher) but that well off yesterday's reading near 25. If it can stay contained below 23, I would expect the S&P to stabilize today as well.

I would have preferred to see the S&P hold above the prior low (red line) but the break below it this morning was quick and so far reversed.

 

[nnuut]

Has the S&P made an "h" pattern?