tsptalk's Market Talk

[wavecoder]

I'm being lazy. Wasn't there a thread a while back about just being in the market on the first trading day of each month and out the rest of the month? Has anyone gone through the trouble of back testing that?

I believe it was either MrJohnRoss or tsptalk, but I'm not sure exactly where he posted it. It's probably way back too far to really fish for. But something along the lines of the first trading day is often an indicator of how the month will go. I don't put too much weight on it though, every month is different.

 

[exnavyew]

IMHO this seems like a good economic sign for the long term but I wonder if the 'market' will freak out in the short term? :33:

[h=1]Fed's Yellen sees gradual rate hikes starting this year[/h]
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/feds-yellen-says-rate-hike-202016355.html

 

[tsptalk]

I'm being lazy. Wasn't there a thread a while back about just being in the market on the first trading day of each month and out the rest of the month? Has anyone gone through the trouble of back testing that?

I don't recall that one, so in the market just one day a month? The first days can be whoppers - good and bad, but mostly good.

I can see first and last weeks of the month so invested less than 50% of the time.

 

[jonfresno]

I'm being lazy. Wasn't there a thread a while back about just being in the market on the first trading day of each month and out the rest of the month? Has anyone gone through the trouble of back testing that?

There was a post in the alternate lmbf thread that shows the performance of being "in" on the first day vs. the s&p500 all the time. It was one of the first posts on the thread.

 

[Sensei]

Futures are in the tank. My gains! Wait a minute! Don't take my gains! (there should be a smiley for hysterical sobbing - nnuut, help me out here, will ya?)

 

[jkenjohnson]

Should you be buying this dip? - MarketWatch

 

[jkenjohnson]

For stocks, the best time to sell and go away starts tomorrow - MarketWatch

 

[Sensei]

For stocks, the best time to sell and go away starts tomorrow - MarketWatch

Or yesterday, as it were.

Actually, now that "sell in April and go away" has been published mainstream on the internet, I imagine April should be a very good month for stocks.

 

[tsptalk]

Futures are in the tank. My gains! Wait a minute! Don't take my gains! (there should be a smiley for hysterical sobbing - nnuut, help me out here, will ya?)

Dow down 80+, but we'll see green today. I don't know if it will close green, but I think we'll see it at some point in the day.

 

[Firedog]

I don't recall that one, so in the market just one day a month? The first days can be whoppers - good and bad, but mostly good.

I can see first and last weeks of the month so invested less than 50% of the time.

Tom Bowley at Stockcharts.com just had a webinar last week reguarding this. There is a historical bias towards the S&P making its gains from the 28th through the 6th of the month and the 11 through the 17th.

 

[exnavyew]

[h=1]Economist: Sell Your Stocks and Take Six Months Off[/h]
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-sell-stocks-six-months-120503963.html

 

[OBXTrader]

Would like to see the day end positive using the method I had gotten so used to seeing (usually when I was on the sidelines crying). Big red open, morning low set early and then grind out a par or birdie. Days like that usually sends the bears home scratching their heads. Then the next day has a positive follow through. I don't recall that scenario in a while.

Look how many days in March closed at day's high beating the previous days close and then it followed through for a higher open the next day. I believe it's zero.

Dow down 80+, but we'll see green today. I don't know if it will close green, but I think we'll see it at some point in the day.

 

[wavecoder]

Economist: Sell Your Stocks and Take Six Months Off


http://finance.yahoo.com/news/economist-sell-stocks-six-months-120503963.html

BUY BUY BUY! :nuts:

 

[tsptalk]

Dow down 80+, but we'll see green today. I don't know if it will close green, but I think we'll see it at some point in the day.

Well, almost...

90 minutes left.

 

[userque]

....thought you were referring to the DJIA turning green....rather than SP500

Well, almost...

90 minutes left.

Dow down 80+, but we'll see green today. I don't know if it will close green, but I think we'll see it at some point in the day.

 

[tsptalk]

Yeah sorry, I meant the indices in general, using the Dow as a reference when i said it. No matter how you slice it, I was way off.

 

[userque]

Yeah sorry, I meant the indices in general, using the Dow as a reference when i said it. No matter how you slice it, I was way off.

SP500 was pretty close.

 

[userque]

I believe this is the link for those who are curious:
Trading Places with Tom Bowley: Can You Time The Stock Market? - Articles - StockCharts.com

Tom Bowley at Stockcharts.com just had a webinar last week reguarding this. There is a historical bias towards the S&P making its gains from the 28th through the 6th of the month and the 11 through the 17th.

 

[userque]

I've reviewed the information. Very nice catch! Thanks!

I'm currently incorporating the results into my algorithms.

Tom Bowley at Stockcharts.com just had a webinar last week reguarding this. There is a historical bias towards the S&P making its gains from the 28th through the 6th of the month and the 11 through the 17th.

 

[jpcavin]

Very good article. Thanks Firedog.