tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

It's been a choppy morning already on this first trading day of 2026. Stocks gapped up at the open, many of those gaps were filled already, and that gap fill is trying to hold.

As I talked about in today's market commentary, the first few days of a new year have been hectic in recent years with the S&P 500 giving a fake out moving, either up or down, only to reverse in the other direction later in the month.





For now, the S&P 500 held at Wednesday's low, and technically the gap is not fully filled, but the 6835 area has a wall of support that is trying to hold.



Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss, as the I-fund takes the lead again to start the year.

Gold, silver, and bitcoin are up, while oil is down a bit this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

With the S&P 500 up almost 50-points, at 6908 it is sitting right near the closing price of 12/23, which was where the Santa Claus rally started.

The military action over the weekend has not deterred the bulls from keeping the January rally going.

Yields are down and the dollar is up slightly, we have oil up $1 a barrel, gold and silver are rallying, as is bitcoin.



We have seen some whippy starts to new years in recent years so the rest of the week could prove interesting.

Not great analysis but at this point it is not easy to trust the rally until we see breakouts to new highs that hold a few days, unlike some of the failed breakouts we've been seeing in some indices.