tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks are mixed and choppy this morning before this afternoon's Fed meeting and interest rate decision. Small caps are leading despite yields moving up, and the dollar is rising again potentially leading the I-fund to its 5th straight loss.

The dollar has been gapping up daily since the EU trade deal was announced, but here it is again at the 200-day average, and average that has proven to be stubborn.



The I-fund has fallen below 2 or 3 support areas and the 50-day EMA is looming near 60. It may all depend on whether the dollar stalls at that average or not.

Gold is down, oil and bitcoin are flat.

Microsoft and META report earnings after the closing bell today, and Apple and Amazon report after the close tomorrow.

We will get the July jobs report on Friday morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Microsoft and META are flying higher after hours.

 

[tsptalk]

The early action is dominated by the huge gains in Meta and Microsoft. The broader and smaller indices are not acting as well, but are holding up after a negative open. For example the Russell 2000 was up 0.01% last checked, and the NYSE is up just 0.5%.

But the S&P 500 (+0.80%) and Nasdaq (+1.27%) are up nicely and making new highs.

Yields are down despite a warm PCE Prices report, but that is helping the F-fund's BND to an early gain.

The dollar gapped up yet again and that has the I-fund's ACWX down about 0.40% in this very early trading.




Gold is up slightly, oil down slightly, and bitcoin is currently back over 118K.

 

[tsptalk]

It's uncanny. Every time I travel the market goes crazy.

How long did we go without a 1% day?

Sorry folks. This sell off is my fault.

Oh, wait. It's August 1st. This was suppose to happen.

 

[tsptalk]

The weaker than expected jobs report and the new tariffs are giving the market some fits, but it's right on cue (see prior post.)

Stocks are pulling back. Yields and the dollar are falling.






Gold is up sharply, oil is down sharply, and the cryptos are down.

Have a great weekend everybody!

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks sold off on Friday, as we all know, but several indices closed well off their lows creating positive reversal days. That usually means some follow up positive action in the short term, which is clearly what we're seeing this morning.

It looks like a heathy snap back rally but for now, the charts are filling in Friday's open gaps so there's more work to be done. Once those gaps are filled the traders may step aside and we'll have to see how investors react.

August isn't usually this accommodating to the bulls, especially after the market came into this month so overbought.

 

[rangerray]

Congratulations on the wedding and expanding your family!

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are stalling but not before filling in Friday's open gaps in the indices. Both the C and S funds have hit some tough resistance so the easy money snap back rally that traders bought, now gets more difficult.

If the bears are serious, this is where they make their stand. If the bulls are going to take charge again, this is where they have to fight to regain that resistance.




Yields and the dollar are near flat. As is the ACWX (I-fund).

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks have been chopping around in a tight range in early trading. The indices are mixed with small caps lagging so far, and the I-fund leading as the dollar's straight up, straight down action continues this morning.



I'm a little surprised to see the tech heavy Nasdaq leading the big three indices with AMD getting hit hard.

The semiconductors are being hit hard, which makes more sense.




It's a slow week for economic data and historically it's a poor week for stocks so we'll see if the indices can stay afloat. So far so good after the dump and pump on Friday and Monday.

Gold, oil, and bitcoin are all relatively flat this morning.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks have been chopping around in a tight range in early trading. The indices are mixed with small caps lagging so far, and the I-fund leading as the dollar's straight up, straight down action continues this morning.

Bouncing back. The 4% gain in Apple can really push all three major indices up. (S&P, Naz, Dow)

 

[nasa1974]

Bouncing back. The 4% gain in Apple can really push all three major indices up. (S&P, Naz, Dow)

View attachment 69857

Woo! Hoo! Go Apple. Except for Starbucks I'm all green.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are rallying this morning and it looks like the S&P 500 is trying to retrace last Friday's negative outside reversal (NOR) day candlestick. From there, whether it fully retraces it or not, it could rollover, or breakout. Both are valid moves, but that NOR breakdown day is a lure, however it often becomes resistance, so be careful.



There was a smaller and example of this in July of 2024 where there was an NOR, a retrace and actually a new high, then it rolled over. There was also a major NOR day on August 1 that led to a quick downdraft.

Yields and the dollar are near flat right now after the initial jobless claims were mixed to slightly weak.

At this point most are expecting that the Fed will be cutting in September and December, so it is basically priced in, but it means then money gets cheaper and the market could rally into the end of the year. If they don't cut, that will be a big problem for the market's psyche.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks jumped out of the starting gate this morning and the S&P 500 quickly started to retest Thursday's highs. So far it is still retracing the previous Thursday's negative reversal breakdown candlestick. That's typical action, but whether that rolls over again after a test is the question. It has a bear flag angle to it, but it is starting to get too long to be a traditional bear flag.



Small caps are up but lagging again and remaining below resistance, and it could be because yields are moving up this morning. As I mentioned in today's commentary, the 10-year is closer to the bottom of its range making it vulnerable to a move back toward the middle or top of the range in the short-term.




Gold is on the move again. Oil and bitcoin are modestly lower.

Have a great weekend!