tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

We got a weaker than expected Consumer Sentiment Report this morning before the opening bell and the futures made a U-turn from positive to negative, but in the first 90 minutes of trading, the S&P has been rebounding back some.

It's important to note that the data was collected before the trade deal with China was made. I don't know how much that makes a difference, but certainly some.

Yields gapped down on the news as well, but they've bounced back to almost fill the gap already. The 10-year yield is down and the small caps are leading with the help of these lower yields. The F-fund is also up on the lower yields.

The dollar is up and it is looking more like the gap fill completed a task and the UUP may be ready to rebound again although it remains below the key moving averages. This rally in the dollar is causing the I-fund to lag this morning.




Oil and bitcoin are up while gold is pulling back.

 

[The_General]

We got a weaker than expected Consumer Sentiment Report this morning before the opening bell and the futures made a U-turn from positive to negative, but in the first 90 minutes of trading, the S&P has been rebounding back some.

It's important to note that the data was collected before the trade deal with China was made. I don't know how much that makes a difference, but certainly some.

Yields gapped down on the news as well, but they've bounced back to almost fill the gap already. The 10-year yield is down and the small caps are leading with the help of these lower yields. The F-fund is also up on the lower yields.

The dollar is up and it is looking more like the gap fill completed a task and the UUP may be ready to rebound again although it remains below the key moving averages. This rally in the dollar is causing the I-fund to lag this morning.

View attachment 69179


Oil and bitcoin are up while gold is pulling back.

FOMO is killing me but I'm sitting patiently on the sidelines..

 

[tsptalk]

There are many differences between 2020 and today, but just looking at the two charts, it would seem reasonable to expect another test of the 50-day average in the coming days / weeks. That may be the time?

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened sharply lower on Monday morning, but maybe not as bad as you might expect after the first downgrade of the the US credit rating by Moody's since they started rating us in 1919. The two other major credit agencies, S&P and Finch, downgraded the US years ago.

Relative to recent volatility, this is nothing unusual so far. The initial buy the dip reaction is a little surprising, but its a little early for the bulls to declare victory. If the indices close positive, that would be quite a statement, but buying the initial dip is so far knee-jerk action - filling in the open gap.




Yields spiked early but the 10-year hit the overhead resistance and backed off in early trading. There is a big gap still open near 4.45%.



Oil is flat, gold is up, and bitcoin is down a bit.

The close is going to be more telling than this early action.

 

[tsptalk]

We have some modest weakness to start the morning for the second straight day, but the dip buyers jumped onboard on Monday and we'll have to see if they will let the indices close red today. It is a pre-holiday weekend but so far there are no technical signs of a pre-holiday reversal.

The bulls have been in charge and the reaction to the negative news on Monday, the Moody's downgrade, tells us that the bulls are not messing around. Many money managers are underinvested and they need to buy and that's why dips have been shallow and brief.

There's very little economic data due out this week, but next week gets a little more busy with PCE data, another GDP estimate, and Consumer Sentiment.

 

[tsptalk]

The early catalyst today... For a 4th straight day, the 10-year yield is testing the descending resistance line, and the F-fund (BND) is testing support.

 

[tsptalk]

Pre-holiday reversals are in play. That's when the market reverses the prevalent trend in the days before a long holiday weekend, and typically that trend resumes after the weekend.

Is that what's happening this week? No guarantees, but it looks that way at the movement.

 

[tsptalk]

We have the 10-year Yield down a little today, and the dollar is up, and this has stocks flat to slightly positive but the I-fund lagging.

Home sales came in lower than expected helping those yields dip after yesterday's spike higher into a dangerous territory.

The House did pass the budget and spending bill, which was part of the reason for yields moving up recently, but there's no guarantees it will get through the Senate. The question is, will yields go up again if the Senate does pass it, or is it already now priced in?

We're still in the pre-holiday period, and as I mentioned in today's commentary, seasonality remains a little bearish into the last week of May.

Small caps are flat this morning. Gold and oil are down slightly, and bitcoin is pushing $111K

The Volatility Index is down slightly after rising earlier and filling in an open gap. It remains above its 200-day EMA, however.

 

[tsptalk]

More tough tariff talk from Trump on the EU has stocks starting the day on the downside. The market has felt heavy this week after the big rally off the lows, but it is a pre-holiday week and the reversal isn't unusual. The question is, what happens next week after the holiday?

Historically the final week in May is strong, but that hasn't been the case the last few years. June has been pretty good, especially the start of the month.

But this hasn't been a seasonality kind of year, but rather big headline after big headline has been driving the indices.

Bond yields pulled back early this morning but the gap is already getting filled.




Gold and oil are up on dollar weakness, which is also giving the I-fund some relative strength, and bitcoin is pulling back after yesterday's record highs.

 

[rangerray]

I’ve got a sneaky feeling my iPhone isn’t actually worth $1000. But it’s apparently what I’m willing to pay.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[tsptalk]

The Dow is clinging to a confluence of various popular moving averages.

 

[tsptalk]

The post holiday reversal is right on time as stocks ran out of the starting gate this morning after last week's pullback. On again, off again tariff talk continues to push and pull the indices, and dip buyers are still hovering and looking for opportunities as underinvested money managers play catch up.

Yields are down and the dollar is up after Consumer Confidence came in stronger than expected. It's a busy week for economic data so it could get choppy this week, but seasonality is on the bulls' side.

Chart formations look good as the 200-day moving average held on last week's decline in the S&P 500, and the small caps of the DWCPF bounced of their 50-day average.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks are doing some digesting this morning of Tuesday's big gains as the market and investors gear up for Nvidia's earnings after the bell today.

Expectations are usually fairly high for Nvidia but they're more mixed this time around after the sell off following the prior earnings, and of course investors are weighing the impact of the tariffs on this sector.

We have yields and the dollar up in early trading, weighing on the S and I-funds respectively.

Oil is up, gold is flat, and bitcoin is down from its recent all-time highs.

 

[nasa1974]

Stocks are doing some digesting this morning of Tuesday's big gains as the market and investors gear up for Nvidia's earnings after the bell today.

Expectations are usually fairly high for Nvidia but they're more mixed this time around after the sell off following the prior earnings, and of course investors are weighing the impact of the tariffs on this sector.

We have yields and the dollar up in early trading, weighing on the S and I-funds respectively.

Oil is up, gold is flat, and bitcoin is down from its recent all-time highs.

View attachment 69274

Yesterday was a good day. Today might get a little better just saw on the news that the EU is going to step up talks.

 

[nasa1974]

Yesterday was a good day. Today might get a little better just saw on the news that the EU is going to step up talks.

Ouch. I guess the EU info didn't help. All my stocks were red except Apple (barely).

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting start to the day after two major market moving events last night, yet stocks are struggling to stay positive an hour into the new trading day.

Nvidia's earnings were good and the futures were up on that report, and then the courts blocked some of the Trump tariffs and the futures were off the the races.

I posted this chart in another thread after those headlines were out.



Fast forward to the opening bell and while stocks opened meaningfully higher, they were well off those overnight levels, and last I checked, the Dow briefly went negative and the S&P was only up 13-points.

I don't like that kind of negative reversal so the rest of the day has some work to do. Perhaps it was just filling in the gap?

Yields and the dollar are down. Oil is down. Gold is up. Bitcoin is flat.

 

[tsptalk]

The tariff headlines continue and it caused some volatility in early trading, but we also saw some favorable economic data that pushed yields down a bit, and the dollar higher.

Trump says China has violated their trade agreement and Treasury Secretary Bessent said U.S.-China trade talks “are a bit stalled.”

The Dow just went positive but stocks were mostly lower in the first hour of trading, but trying to grind higher.

Oil, gold, and bitcoin are all down slightly this morning.

With today being the final trading day in May, it looks like the monthly S&P 500 chart will cement in a positive candlestick for the month as it looks toward the prior highs.