tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

Stocks are flat but mixed this morning, but leaning on the negative side as he Nasdaq just took a turn to the downside after positive open. Yields are up after a better than expected Jobless Claims report.

The dog days of summer will start in the second half of July so the April to early July rally may be put to the test as the easy money off the April oversold lows may be coming to an end..

I've been posting this old chart in my commentary recently, and but it has been working surprisingly well. Today would be day +4 after the 4th of July holiday, suggesting today is positive about 55% of the time, but the average return is basically flat. Yesterday (+3) we got the big gain day, and tomorrow (+5) also has a decent record.



Some time next week, the stronger than average part of July will wane and the stock market will start to have more of a wind in its face through early October. That doesn't mean stocks will be down - rather that seasonality is no longer a benefit but possibly a hindrance.

 

[tsptalk]

Stocks opened lower this morning as the tariff show resumes. The market may be in search of a reason to do some backing and filling after the recent rally, and nothing like some tariff headlines to shake things up and increase volatility.

The under-invested are welcoming it and that could mean dip buyers won't be too far off. The charts look good, but a little extended and a little choppiness or volatility wouldn't be the worst thing to happen to the market. However, timing a strong market can be tricky and often backfires.

Last year July, August, and September were all positive months for the S&P 500, but there was a nasty sell off in there that started in mid-July and accelerated into into early August, but it turned out to be a great buying opportunity.




Oil, gold, and most of the cryptos are all up big. Bitcoin hit 118,000 this morning.

 

[tsptalk]