It was a volatile week on Wall Street last week with all 5 days producing triple digit moves in the Dow. Unfortunately, 3 of those were negative days, and 2 were positive which added up to a 167-point weekly loss for the Dow. On Thursday the market reacted negatively to Russia's threat to cease foreign assets, but volatility had been picking up before that.
For the week, the TSP stock funds were hit fairly hard with the more volatile small caps and I-fund taking the larger hits. Investors moved money into bonds so the oversold F-fund finally saw a little relief.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending September 26:
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) rebounded on Friday but technically it still needs some help to turn this chart around. Recent pullbacks chopped around in a range (red boxes) before reversing higher so perhaps we shouldn't anticipate a straight move higher from here, although it did recapture the 50-day EMA after only one day below it, and that is different from what we saw in August.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Wilshire 4500 (S-fund) got a bounce off of the 200-day EMA and held at the August low. So far so good, but this chart is still vulnerable if the upside does not resume this week.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) is an example of a chart that is broken. Friday's action gave it some like as it was able to close back above the August lows, but it has now closed below the 200-day EMA for four straight days. That's not exactly bull market action.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (Bonds / F-fund) has come well off the lows and back above the 20 and 50-day EMA's. The stock market bulls would probably like to see this chart head back down because right now it is rallying because stocks are falling.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
Bottom line, the stock charts are breaking down and vulnerable, but the indices are getting oversold and at least some short-term relief could be on the way in some of the more hard hit ones like the small caps and I-Fund.
Good luck and thanks for reading! We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at TSP Talk Market Commentary. If you need some help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our premium services can help.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
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The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or are commendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
