Space
The July trajectory officially continues into August, but some technical resistance should still make you question its longevity. It wasn't a great start to the week, but the Consumer Price Index sparked new life in buyers. The CPI report was slightly less than the previous months suggesting inflation has potentially peaked. It wasn't a spectacular pull back in price growth, but buyers connected it with the Federal Reserve pulling back on their aggressive rate hikes. Of course, some Fed members came out publicly to say they think rates should continue on the path laid out to get inflation back to the 2% target. More data suggesting a slowdown in inflation came out Thursday and the stocks rallied to their highs for the by Friday's close.
It was the fourth straight week of gains for the C and S-fund. In that time (since July 15th) the C-fund has gained 10.92%, and the S-fund has gained 15.46%. This has been the best four week run for the year for the funds. Momentum is on these fund's side, but in the charts below we will look at some technical resistance that could threaten the streak. The bears are not hibernating, there are still down days. The S-fund was down 1.59% just on Tuesday. Be cautious of chasing, think about taking profits when they come, but let the good times roll.
Bonds were up as well with stocks. The F-fund gained 0.25% this week to catch up on the 1% loss from the previous week.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP Talk AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending August 12:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is the outlier of the TSP stock funds. The ETF has made reached the looming milestone of out pricing its 200-day EMA. This is the first time the ETF has traded above its 200-day since April. The one concern for would be buyers is the open gap produced from Wednesday's gap up following the CPI report. That open gap is below the current 200-day EMA. The C-fund price ended for the week just slightly above its price of May 4th making it the highest price for the C-fund since April 21st. The C-fund was up 3.31% for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) outperformed for the week but does face the 200-day EMA that the C-fund conquered this week with the boost from the CPI report. That moving average will be harder to pass without a headline boost. The index also has an open gap from Wednesday that coincides with the June highs. The S-fund led the TSP funds with a gain 4.45% despite a loss of 1.59% on Tuesday.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up for the week but lagged the C and S-fund, and has quite the move to make before testing its 200-day EMA. That could be a good thing from a buying standpoint with less resistance to face in the near future compared to the outperforming S-fund. The ETF also has an open gap below that would mean falling below rising support to fill. The I-fund was up 2.56% for the week.
Last week BND (Bonds / F-fund) was between two open gaps and although it closed the top one it is questionable if it officially close the bottom. Either way the ETF ended the week back above its 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA held as support Thursday. The latest action also looks like a bull flag that tend to break higher, but for now the price is in the middle of the trading channel. The F-fund lagged the TSP stocks funds for the week but managed to gain 0.25% for the week after falling 1% the previous week.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
The July trajectory officially continues into August, but some technical resistance should still make you question its longevity. It wasn't a great start to the week, but the Consumer Price Index sparked new life in buyers. The CPI report was slightly less than the previous months suggesting inflation has potentially peaked. It wasn't a spectacular pull back in price growth, but buyers connected it with the Federal Reserve pulling back on their aggressive rate hikes. Of course, some Fed members came out publicly to say they think rates should continue on the path laid out to get inflation back to the 2% target. More data suggesting a slowdown in inflation came out Thursday and the stocks rallied to their highs for the by Friday's close.
It was the fourth straight week of gains for the C and S-fund. In that time (since July 15th) the C-fund has gained 10.92%, and the S-fund has gained 15.46%. This has been the best four week run for the year for the funds. Momentum is on these fund's side, but in the charts below we will look at some technical resistance that could threaten the streak. The bears are not hibernating, there are still down days. The S-fund was down 1.59% just on Tuesday. Be cautious of chasing, think about taking profits when they come, but let the good times roll.
Bonds were up as well with stocks. The F-fund gained 0.25% this week to catch up on the 1% loss from the previous week.
Looking for an edge on your TSP return? Get the Last Look Report for as low as $4.19 / month. The report is a daily email on the TSP Talk AutoTracker moves, news, forum threads, and more before the IFT deadline. The service is aimed to help you make your own IFT decisions by giving you relative information 30 min prior to the deadline including where the members of TSP Talk are moving their money.
Here are the weekly, monthly, and annual TSP fund returns for the week ending August 12:
SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) is the outlier of the TSP stock funds. The ETF has made reached the looming milestone of out pricing its 200-day EMA. This is the first time the ETF has traded above its 200-day since April. The one concern for would be buyers is the open gap produced from Wednesday's gap up following the CPI report. That open gap is below the current 200-day EMA. The C-fund price ended for the week just slightly above its price of May 4th making it the highest price for the C-fund since April 21st. The C-fund was up 3.31% for the week.
The Dow Completion Index (S-fund) outperformed for the week but does face the 200-day EMA that the C-fund conquered this week with the boost from the CPI report. That moving average will be harder to pass without a headline boost. The index also has an open gap from Wednesday that coincides with the June highs. The S-fund led the TSP funds with a gain 4.45% despite a loss of 1.59% on Tuesday.
EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was up for the week but lagged the C and S-fund, and has quite the move to make before testing its 200-day EMA. That could be a good thing from a buying standpoint with less resistance to face in the near future compared to the outperforming S-fund. The ETF also has an open gap below that would mean falling below rising support to fill. The I-fund was up 2.56% for the week.
Last week BND (Bonds / F-fund) was between two open gaps and although it closed the top one it is questionable if it officially close the bottom. Either way the ETF ended the week back above its 20-day EMA and the 50-day EMA held as support Thursday. The latest action also looks like a bull flag that tend to break higher, but for now the price is in the middle of the trading channel. The F-fund lagged the TSP stocks funds for the week but managed to gain 0.25% for the week after falling 1% the previous week.
Good luck and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up. You can read our daily market commentary at the Market Comments page. If you need more help deciding what to do with your account, perhaps one of our Premium Services can help.
Thomas A Crowley
wwww.tsptalk.com
Last Look Report
Facebook | Twitter
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
