Serious Question Marks
Stocks rallied last week on some strong earnings reports, and despite some shaky economic data and of course the ongoing uncertainty of the debt negotiations.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 2.22% for the week, the S-fund gained 1.71%, and the I-fund jumped 3.39% helped by weakness in the dollar. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.05%, and the G-fund was up 0.05%.
For the month of July the C-fund is now up 1.95%, the S-fund has gained 1.86%, the I-fund is up 0.56%, the F-fund has added 0.93%, and the G-fund is up 0.16%.
The S&P 500 has shown resilience in the face of the impending debt ceiling deadline, which begs the question, has the market already priced in a possible default or is it counting on a deal being made? If it is the latter, then it is of course vulnerable to a potential non-deal.
The chart of the S&P 500 shows that new highs are just a stone’s throw away and its strength may be trying to tell us something. While I’m a big believer that the market as a whole knows a lot more than the individual investors who make up the market, the macro headline will still have the ability to shake things up in the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500 is now trading near the top of its 6-month trading range. Will we see a breakout or is another trip toward the lower end of the range in the cards first?
The two inverted head and shoulders patterns (circled in blue) are generally bullish formations, and there are two common outcomes. One is a test of the head, the other is a breakout above the neckline, which is the upper resistance line.
The first inverted H&S which appeared earlier this year took the “test of the head” route. Perhaps this current one will take the breakout route, but it will have to get passed this week of macro headlines. A final deal in the debt ceiling negotiations could be the catalyst for a breakout, but I suspect we could see some volatile ups and downs until that happens.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks rallied last week on some strong earnings reports, and despite some shaky economic data and of course the ongoing uncertainty of the debt negotiations.
For the TSP, the C-fund was up 2.22% for the week, the S-fund gained 1.71%, and the I-fund jumped 3.39% helped by weakness in the dollar. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.05%, and the G-fund was up 0.05%.
For the month of July the C-fund is now up 1.95%, the S-fund has gained 1.86%, the I-fund is up 0.56%, the F-fund has added 0.93%, and the G-fund is up 0.16%.
The S&P 500 has shown resilience in the face of the impending debt ceiling deadline, which begs the question, has the market already priced in a possible default or is it counting on a deal being made? If it is the latter, then it is of course vulnerable to a potential non-deal.
The chart of the S&P 500 shows that new highs are just a stone’s throw away and its strength may be trying to tell us something. While I’m a big believer that the market as a whole knows a lot more than the individual investors who make up the market, the macro headline will still have the ability to shake things up in the short-term.
Chart provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The S&P 500 is now trading near the top of its 6-month trading range. Will we see a breakout or is another trip toward the lower end of the range in the cards first?
The two inverted head and shoulders patterns (circled in blue) are generally bullish formations, and there are two common outcomes. One is a test of the head, the other is a breakout above the neckline, which is the upper resistance line.
The first inverted H&S which appeared earlier this year took the “test of the head” route. Perhaps this current one will take the breakout route, but it will have to get passed this week of macro headlines. A final deal in the debt ceiling negotiations could be the catalyst for a breakout, but I suspect we could see some volatile ups and downs until that happens.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Good luck!