Weekly TSP Wrap-up from TSP Talk
Signs of life
The stock market showed signs of life this past week, particularly on Thursday and Friday, when stocks rose despite some weaker than expected economic data. The indexes become quite oversold, as they say, and a rally was not a surprise, but the light volume trading does leave some doubt to many investors.
For the week, the TSP stock funds all closed nicely higher. The C-fund gained 2.57%, the S-fund was up 2.61%, and the I-fund led the way with a return of +3.75%. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.08%, and the G-fund added 0.06%.
The C-fund and I-fund both moved into positive territory for the month with modest gains of 0.29% and 0.92% respectively, and while the S-fund is still down 0.87% in June, it took back the top spot as the highest TSP fund return in 2010 at +5.63%. The F-fund is up 0.43% in June, and the G-fund is up 0.09%.
The S&P 500 made some progress last week as it has now successfully tested the February low of 1044 twice, and it might be too early to celebrate, but it may be about to break above that descending trend line.
Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 200-day EMA (exponential moving average) remains an obstacle for the S&P 500, but last week the market leaders, Dow Transportation Index and the Nasdaq, both moved back above their respective 200-day EMA’s, so that is a positive sign for the lagging S&P Index. Here’s a chart of the Dow Transports…
The high volatility we are seeing is usually a sign of two possible outcomes; a reversal in the trend, which would be bullish for stocks as the trend has been down since the late April peak, or a major sell-off is coming. The former is much more common than the latter, but of course if it is the sell-off option, we’ll want to watch those areas on the charts for signs. That would be a break in the support levels, and the S&P 500 being unable to recapture that 200-day EMA.
If the recent weakness in stocks has made you more defensive, and rightfully so, you may want to keep watching as we are seeing some signs of life and market timers need to be nimble, open minded, and willing to make changes when the market starts trying to tell us that a change may be coming.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
--------------------------------------
TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.
The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer
Signs of life
The stock market showed signs of life this past week, particularly on Thursday and Friday, when stocks rose despite some weaker than expected economic data. The indexes become quite oversold, as they say, and a rally was not a surprise, but the light volume trading does leave some doubt to many investors.
For the week, the TSP stock funds all closed nicely higher. The C-fund gained 2.57%, the S-fund was up 2.61%, and the I-fund led the way with a return of +3.75%. Bonds (F-fund) slipped 0.08%, and the G-fund added 0.06%.
The C-fund and I-fund both moved into positive territory for the month with modest gains of 0.29% and 0.92% respectively, and while the S-fund is still down 0.87% in June, it took back the top spot as the highest TSP fund return in 2010 at +5.63%. The F-fund is up 0.43% in June, and the G-fund is up 0.09%.
The S&P 500 made some progress last week as it has now successfully tested the February low of 1044 twice, and it might be too early to celebrate, but it may be about to break above that descending trend line.
Charts provided courtesy of www.decisionpoint.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The 200-day EMA (exponential moving average) remains an obstacle for the S&P 500, but last week the market leaders, Dow Transportation Index and the Nasdaq, both moved back above their respective 200-day EMA’s, so that is a positive sign for the lagging S&P Index. Here’s a chart of the Dow Transports…
The high volatility we are seeing is usually a sign of two possible outcomes; a reversal in the trend, which would be bullish for stocks as the trend has been down since the late April peak, or a major sell-off is coming. The former is much more common than the latter, but of course if it is the sell-off option, we’ll want to watch those areas on the charts for signs. That would be a break in the support levels, and the S&P 500 being unable to recapture that 200-day EMA.
If the recent weakness in stocks has made you more defensive, and rightfully so, you may want to keep watching as we are seeing some signs of life and market timers need to be nimble, open minded, and willing to make changes when the market starts trying to tell us that a change may be coming.
Good luck, and thanks for reading. We will be back here next week with another TSP Wrap Up.
Tom Crowley
www.tsptalk.com
Weekly Wrap-Ups Archive
--------------------------------------
TSP Talk does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of this report, nor does TSPtalk.com assume any liability for any loss that may result from reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Such information and opinions are subject to change without notice and are for general information only.
The information contained on this website is for educational purposes only and not intended to be recommendations, and may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or otherwise distributed without prior written consent from TSPtalk.com. Full Disclaimer
