Happy New Year, everyone! Thanks for starting another year with us. I really appreciate it.
Stocks couldn't muster up any positive momentum on Tuesday, or for the last week, right in the middle of the traditional Santa Claus Rally. The Santa Claus Rally is "officially" the final five trading days of the year, and the first two of the new year, so we technically have two days left. On average the gain during that period is +1.3%. Not great but better than the -1.55% we currently have after the first five days. Also, the first few days of the year can often be a tell for the entire new year.
What a disappointment to the end of a good year for the stock market. I didn't confirm this, but I heard on CNBC that it was the first 4-day losing streak to end a year since the 1960's. As I said, there are still two trading days left in the official Santa Claus Rally so there's either a lot of gains to make up, or 2025 could turn out to be a rough year.
We start the New Year with some charts that have issues like bear flags, and / or head and shoulders pattern, so these next few days will be key as support gets tested.
This chart could be the key. The 10-year Treasury Yield was up on Tuesday but it had started to pull back from its recent highs, and potentially changing directions. If the stock market is going to find support and stabilize, this will like have to stop moving higher.
The weekly chart of the 10-year Yield shows that it is still technically in a long term downtrend with the lower high after the lower low.
A couple of the market leaders, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are trying to hold onto their long-term bullish trends after the recent pullback, and we should know a lot more by the end of the week.
Normally released on the first Friday of each month, there will be no jobs report this Friday. It will be released on Friday, January 10th.
The 2024 AutoTracker contest has ended and here is the list of winners. Great job! Here are the final standings.
Just 10 members were able to beat the +24.96% return of the C-fund for the year, and two of them started after the first day in January of 2024 so they didn't qualify for the full year return prizes, but the returns were still quite impressive.
You can find more information here about the Monthly and 2024 winners. The winners have been sent a Direct Message in the Forum.
How to be included - sign up or sign in by COB Jan 2 to be eligible for full year return prizes
Prizes are awarded for top monthly and annual returns!
Thanks for your patience with some of these quickie holiday commentaries. I will be back on my normal schedule on Monday morning.
I mentioned the head and shoulder pattern on the S&P 500 (C-fund) chart before, which concerns me, but those can also be continuation patterns when in an uptrend, so there's some bullish potential - as long as it doesn't break down. The open gap from after the election remains open and it will likely get filled eventually. I had said I didn't think it would get filled in 2024, and it didn't but it was close over the last couple of weeks, and 2025 is here and it is likely going to get filled at some point. I'm hoping it waits until February for may reasons, but if this year starts poorly, it could come any day.
DWCPF (S-fund) was down on Tuesday but it outperformed the large caps again. Many of us have been waiting for the small caps to take the lead back on the overvalued large caps, but conditions have to be right, and if yields keep rising, that won't be the right condition.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) lost 0.10% on Tuesday, and the I-fund was given a 0.11% loss. This chart is looking sketchy after last month's break down and needs to recapture that 200-day EMA.
BND (bonds / F-fund) backed off from Monday's promising looking breakout above the 200-day EMA. It did close above it again on Tuesday but there's just no momentum yet. Again, head and shoulders pattern are not too bearish in uptrends, but this one is in a downtrend, and that's troubling for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
Stocks couldn't muster up any positive momentum on Tuesday, or for the last week, right in the middle of the traditional Santa Claus Rally. The Santa Claus Rally is "officially" the final five trading days of the year, and the first two of the new year, so we technically have two days left. On average the gain during that period is +1.3%. Not great but better than the -1.55% we currently have after the first five days. Also, the first few days of the year can often be a tell for the entire new year.
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You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.phpWhat a disappointment to the end of a good year for the stock market. I didn't confirm this, but I heard on CNBC that it was the first 4-day losing streak to end a year since the 1960's. As I said, there are still two trading days left in the official Santa Claus Rally so there's either a lot of gains to make up, or 2025 could turn out to be a rough year.
We start the New Year with some charts that have issues like bear flags, and / or head and shoulders pattern, so these next few days will be key as support gets tested.
This chart could be the key. The 10-year Treasury Yield was up on Tuesday but it had started to pull back from its recent highs, and potentially changing directions. If the stock market is going to find support and stabilize, this will like have to stop moving higher.
The weekly chart of the 10-year Yield shows that it is still technically in a long term downtrend with the lower high after the lower low.
A couple of the market leaders, the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 are trying to hold onto their long-term bullish trends after the recent pullback, and we should know a lot more by the end of the week.
Normally released on the first Friday of each month, there will be no jobs report this Friday. It will be released on Friday, January 10th.
The 2024 AutoTracker contest has ended and here is the list of winners. Great job! Here are the final standings.
Just 10 members were able to beat the +24.96% return of the C-fund for the year, and two of them started after the first day in January of 2024 so they didn't qualify for the full year return prizes, but the returns were still quite impressive.
You can find more information here about the Monthly and 2024 winners. The winners have been sent a Direct Message in the Forum.
How to be included - sign up or sign in by COB Jan 2 to be eligible for full year return prizes
Prizes are awarded for top monthly and annual returns!
Thanks for your patience with some of these quickie holiday commentaries. I will be back on my normal schedule on Monday morning.
I mentioned the head and shoulder pattern on the S&P 500 (C-fund) chart before, which concerns me, but those can also be continuation patterns when in an uptrend, so there's some bullish potential - as long as it doesn't break down. The open gap from after the election remains open and it will likely get filled eventually. I had said I didn't think it would get filled in 2024, and it didn't but it was close over the last couple of weeks, and 2025 is here and it is likely going to get filled at some point. I'm hoping it waits until February for may reasons, but if this year starts poorly, it could come any day.
DWCPF (S-fund) was down on Tuesday but it outperformed the large caps again. Many of us have been waiting for the small caps to take the lead back on the overvalued large caps, but conditions have to be right, and if yields keep rising, that won't be the right condition.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) lost 0.10% on Tuesday, and the I-fund was given a 0.11% loss. This chart is looking sketchy after last month's break down and needs to recapture that 200-day EMA.
BND (bonds / F-fund) backed off from Monday's promising looking breakout above the 200-day EMA. It did close above it again on Tuesday but there's just no momentum yet. Again, head and shoulders pattern are not too bearish in uptrends, but this one is in a downtrend, and that's troubling for bonds.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
