Stocks opened higher on Wednesday, and despite an early attempt by the bears to pull them down, the bulls battled back to push the indices back toward their highs of the day. The Dow was down but the S&P 500 has now been up for 8 straight days and the Nasdaq pushed it to 9 straight. However, once again the small caps lagged badly with the Russell 2000 falling over 1%, which bled over into the S-fund which lost 0.61% on the day. The I-fund was also down slightly, while bonds (F-fund) had a good day with yields falling.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[/TD]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 338, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The internal numbers don't make the gains and losses for our TSP funds, but it's an indication of what might be happening under the hood of the car, even if the car sounds good with the hood down. Once again we saw more stocks down on the day than up yesterday, with share volume even more lopsided on the downside. We also saw a doubling of the number of new lows on the Nasdaq yesterday, passing 200 new 52-week lows.
The Yield on the 10-year Treasury Yield was down again, closing below the 50-day EMA for the 3rd time in 4 days. The decline in yields has been a result of a more dovish Fed and a concern over weakness in the economy.
Another sign of weakness in the economy is the recent sharp decline in the price of oil after the head and shoulders breakdown moved near the technical target levels. Not that it can't go lower or that it will go higher, but the 73 to 75 area was the target after it fell below about 81.
It's not a primary indicator, but today is the 9th of November, and while November is one of the better months of the year, we are moving past that strong seasonal advantage of the first week or so of the month.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The action was quiet yesterday and it felt like holiday trading, but the market is actually open on Friday despite the Federal holiday, as is the bond market so we basically have a market that has come a long way off the lows and maybe losing steam, but the bears have no bite in them at the moment. Next week we will get the CPI and PPI reports which may trigger some volatility.
Admin Note: The TSP will be closed Friday November 10th for Veteran’s Day and won't be processing any transactions, so we won't be posting any commentary updates or reports on TSP Talk until Monday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) chart looks very firm and the lack of a pullback at the obvious resistance is enticing. If you've missed the rally or are just looking for a place to get in, it isn't showing any signs of pulling back, although the upside has slowed a bit. The world is waiting to see what happens near 4400, which is in the thick of most of the resistance. The open gaps below are obvious and everyone sees them, but what will it take to get them filled? Next week's CPI report may be the only catalyst outside of a unforeseen headline that could shake things up.
DWCPF (S-fund) is not in the same league as he S&P as it continues to lag and it is lingering below resistance, but also holding up above those open gaps. Something is going to have to give here soon - whether it's filling that top gap, or a breakout over the 50-day EMA. It may depend which way yields go from here, although lower yields didn't help this fund yesterday.
The EFA (I-fund) was down a bit as it sits atop of a major open gap that looks too appealing to pass up - meaning it should try to at least partially fill it. It's below so much resistance that it would be tough to jump in here before it fills that gap.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied nicely and the chart pushed above some resistance that it struggled with recently. It's tagging the top of an overhead gap that could act as resistance, but the chart is repairing itself so any failure up in this area would be a big disappointment for bond investors.
Thanks so much for reading! A big thank you to all our veterans out there! Have a great Veteran's Day weekend, and we'll see you on Monday.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
[TABLE="align: center"]
[TR]
[TD="align: center"]
[TD]
[/TD]
[TD="width: 338, align: center"] Daily TSP Funds Return
[TR]
[TD="align: right"][/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]
The internal numbers don't make the gains and losses for our TSP funds, but it's an indication of what might be happening under the hood of the car, even if the car sounds good with the hood down. Once again we saw more stocks down on the day than up yesterday, with share volume even more lopsided on the downside. We also saw a doubling of the number of new lows on the Nasdaq yesterday, passing 200 new 52-week lows.
The Yield on the 10-year Treasury Yield was down again, closing below the 50-day EMA for the 3rd time in 4 days. The decline in yields has been a result of a more dovish Fed and a concern over weakness in the economy.
Another sign of weakness in the economy is the recent sharp decline in the price of oil after the head and shoulders breakdown moved near the technical target levels. Not that it can't go lower or that it will go higher, but the 73 to 75 area was the target after it fell below about 81.
It's not a primary indicator, but today is the 9th of November, and while November is one of the better months of the year, we are moving past that strong seasonal advantage of the first week or so of the month.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The action was quiet yesterday and it felt like holiday trading, but the market is actually open on Friday despite the Federal holiday, as is the bond market so we basically have a market that has come a long way off the lows and maybe losing steam, but the bears have no bite in them at the moment. Next week we will get the CPI and PPI reports which may trigger some volatility.
Admin Note: The TSP will be closed Friday November 10th for Veteran’s Day and won't be processing any transactions, so we won't be posting any commentary updates or reports on TSP Talk until Monday.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) chart looks very firm and the lack of a pullback at the obvious resistance is enticing. If you've missed the rally or are just looking for a place to get in, it isn't showing any signs of pulling back, although the upside has slowed a bit. The world is waiting to see what happens near 4400, which is in the thick of most of the resistance. The open gaps below are obvious and everyone sees them, but what will it take to get them filled? Next week's CPI report may be the only catalyst outside of a unforeseen headline that could shake things up.
DWCPF (S-fund) is not in the same league as he S&P as it continues to lag and it is lingering below resistance, but also holding up above those open gaps. Something is going to have to give here soon - whether it's filling that top gap, or a breakout over the 50-day EMA. It may depend which way yields go from here, although lower yields didn't help this fund yesterday.
The EFA (I-fund) was down a bit as it sits atop of a major open gap that looks too appealing to pass up - meaning it should try to at least partially fill it. It's below so much resistance that it would be tough to jump in here before it fills that gap.
BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied nicely and the chart pushed above some resistance that it struggled with recently. It's tagging the top of an overhead gap that could act as resistance, but the chart is repairing itself so any failure up in this area would be a big disappointment for bond investors.
Thanks so much for reading! A big thank you to all our veterans out there! Have a great Veteran's Day weekend, and we'll see you on Monday.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
