Not much of an effort from the bulls yesterday, but at least they kept the bears at bay. The indices bounced around quite a bit so there was a battle going on, but in the end the bulls won a minor victory as perhaps the bullish holiday seasonality is ready to finally kick in. The Dow gained 92-points and the small caps and I-fund led with solid gains. Bonds were down after a Japanese bond yield curve policy change. Today is the 21st, or the start of the Winter Solstice and the official calendar kick off to the Santa Claus rally period.
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I was doing some traveling for Christmas destination yesterday so I didn't see a whole lot of the action after the TSP deadline, but it looks like it was pretty flat after the bulls stepped up after a morning selloff, but the bears held back the bulls by selling both the morning and afternoon strength. It was a small win for the bulls, but a win they really needed.
The bond market was down sharply after rise in yields following the announcement out of Japan that they are shifting their long-term yield curve policy. The dollar was also down sharply helping prices rise, and giving the I-fund another day of outperforming the U.S. stocks.
One of the market leaders, the Dow Transportation Index, took another large hit yesterday, mostly driven by disappointing earnings from FedEx which was down 2.62% on the day. However, after the bell yesterday FedEx was trading up 4.5% after announcing some aggressive cost-cutting efforts, so the Transports could see a nice pop today.
Other than that, I am still mostly in the holiday seasonality mode and today, being the 21st and the Winter Solstice, there tends to be a bullish shift in the market, at least there has been for many years.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
No matter if you're bullish, bearish or neutral, these tendencies are tough to ignore, or fight against.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The futures were up fairly sharply in the Tuesday evening session. It's a long way until the opening bell on Wednesday but maybe Santa is planning on making an appearance?
Don't forget to sign into the AutoTracker before the end of the year if you haven't done so in a while. There are several idle accounts that may get bumped off the lists if they remain unattended by the end of the year. Logging into the Forum will help keep your account active as well, but logging into the AutoTracker itself will do that automatically.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is hanging around the area that used to be the bottom of the open gap, but again there's reason to believe that 3750 could be the actual bottom of that gap, but perhaps that fill will get put off until after Christmas or into the New Year. Trading volume got a little lighter yesterday and, barring any negative headlines, I suspect it could keep going lower, giving the bulls more of an advantage.
The DWCPF (S-fund) was up nicely yesterday, and the EFA / I-fund led the day again.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was a victim of the action in Japan and their Central Bank changing their yield curve policy. I don't know if that will roll into today's action, but I suspect it will be a short-term catalyst because I would expect bonds to do well next year if the we see sign of a recession in the U.S.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. Happy Hanukkah to those of you celebrating! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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I was doing some traveling for Christmas destination yesterday so I didn't see a whole lot of the action after the TSP deadline, but it looks like it was pretty flat after the bulls stepped up after a morning selloff, but the bears held back the bulls by selling both the morning and afternoon strength. It was a small win for the bulls, but a win they really needed.
The bond market was down sharply after rise in yields following the announcement out of Japan that they are shifting their long-term yield curve policy. The dollar was also down sharply helping prices rise, and giving the I-fund another day of outperforming the U.S. stocks.
One of the market leaders, the Dow Transportation Index, took another large hit yesterday, mostly driven by disappointing earnings from FedEx which was down 2.62% on the day. However, after the bell yesterday FedEx was trading up 4.5% after announcing some aggressive cost-cutting efforts, so the Transports could see a nice pop today.
Other than that, I am still mostly in the holiday seasonality mode and today, being the 21st and the Winter Solstice, there tends to be a bullish shift in the market, at least there has been for many years.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
No matter if you're bullish, bearish or neutral, these tendencies are tough to ignore, or fight against.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The futures were up fairly sharply in the Tuesday evening session. It's a long way until the opening bell on Wednesday but maybe Santa is planning on making an appearance?
Don't forget to sign into the AutoTracker before the end of the year if you haven't done so in a while. There are several idle accounts that may get bumped off the lists if they remain unattended by the end of the year. Logging into the Forum will help keep your account active as well, but logging into the AutoTracker itself will do that automatically.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is hanging around the area that used to be the bottom of the open gap, but again there's reason to believe that 3750 could be the actual bottom of that gap, but perhaps that fill will get put off until after Christmas or into the New Year. Trading volume got a little lighter yesterday and, barring any negative headlines, I suspect it could keep going lower, giving the bulls more of an advantage.
The DWCPF (S-fund) was up nicely yesterday, and the EFA / I-fund led the day again.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was a victim of the action in Japan and their Central Bank changing their yield curve policy. I don't know if that will roll into today's action, but I suspect it will be a short-term catalyst because I would expect bonds to do well next year if the we see sign of a recession in the U.S.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. Happy Hanukkah to those of you celebrating! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
