Stocks bounced back on Monday after Friday's sell off, despite more tariffs being proposed by Trump, so perhaps the market has priced in this new way of the US doing business. The charts are holding up, but the negative reversals created on Friday are still lingering and not out of the picture yet. This happens to be one of the strongest weeks of the year historically - for whatever reason, but next week seasonality gets dark again.
You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
As I mentioned yesterday, I had plans on Monday evening / night and wouldn't have time to do much analysis nor post a full commentary for Tuesday, so this will be a quickie. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Yields started out on the downside but reversed higher and with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.0% and wages up in the jobs report last Friday, investors are still concerned about inflation. The CPI report (Consumer Price Index) will come out on Wednesday morning and the PPI (wholesale prices) on Thursday and that may set the tone for inflation sentiment going foreword.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give his semiannual testimony to congress today and Wednesday, and that's always a potential market mover. He will obviously opine of the jobs data and inflation.
Seasonality isn't a primary indicator for most weeks of the year but this is a very good week for stocks historically. However, that all changes next week as it is one of the worst stretches of the year for the S&P 500.
Maybe Monday's rally is the start of a bullish seasonal week, or it's something more than that, because investors certainly looked past the tariff news. It's a busy week with the Fed and inflation data so it wouldn't be surprising if it got volatile, but the calendar favors the bulls for the time being.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gained back most of Friday's loss but it is still stuck below the double top. It may be in a bull flag but the open gap leaves some possible unfinished business down below.
DWCPF (S-fund) is also stalling at the recent double top and, despite leading this year with a 5% gain, it is still well below the December highs.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) led on the upside but the negative outside reversal day on Friday is still a warning sign for the short to intermediate term.
BND was up slightly but the F-fund was given a small loss. Basically both were flat. It has dipped recently but remains in an uptrend off the January lows after filling in some gaps.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
As I mentioned yesterday, I had plans on Monday evening / night and wouldn't have time to do much analysis nor post a full commentary for Tuesday, so this will be a quickie. Sorry for the inconvenience.
Yields started out on the downside but reversed higher and with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.0% and wages up in the jobs report last Friday, investors are still concerned about inflation. The CPI report (Consumer Price Index) will come out on Wednesday morning and the PPI (wholesale prices) on Thursday and that may set the tone for inflation sentiment going foreword.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give his semiannual testimony to congress today and Wednesday, and that's always a potential market mover. He will obviously opine of the jobs data and inflation.
Seasonality isn't a primary indicator for most weeks of the year but this is a very good week for stocks historically. However, that all changes next week as it is one of the worst stretches of the year for the S&P 500.
Maybe Monday's rally is the start of a bullish seasonal week, or it's something more than that, because investors certainly looked past the tariff news. It's a busy week with the Fed and inflation data so it wouldn't be surprising if it got volatile, but the calendar favors the bulls for the time being.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) gained back most of Friday's loss but it is still stuck below the double top. It may be in a bull flag but the open gap leaves some possible unfinished business down below.
DWCPF (S-fund) is also stalling at the recent double top and, despite leading this year with a 5% gain, it is still well below the December highs.
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) led on the upside but the negative outside reversal day on Friday is still a warning sign for the short to intermediate term.
BND was up slightly but the F-fund was given a small loss. Basically both were flat. It has dipped recently but remains in an uptrend off the January lows after filling in some gaps.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
