1The bull market is not going away easily, if at all, but the economic data and the Fed are continuously bombarding investors with new information that is whipsawing the indices. Most of the big losses from the reaction to Wednesday's hot CPI report, were erased after the dip buyers bought the cooler PPI data. The Dow was flat but the broader indices did quite well. Yields and the dollar were up again, but the dip buyers ignored it on Thursday.
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The action in the S&P 500 (C-fund) has been very choppy since last week's negative outside reversal day. The reversal day suggests, not mandates, that the trend could be changing and we did see a rising support line break last week, but with the index closing back above the 30 and 15-day moving averages, the chart looks a little better than it did just a day ago. The PMO indicator continues to suggest trouble ahead, but that has lost some luster in recent weeks.
Once again, here is the 2023 chart I am comparing last week's negative outside reversal day to. After that blue rising support line broke, it traded in a range for a week or so before making another leg lower.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up again on Thursday and it reached the inverted head and shoulders upside target. That doesn't mean it can't go higher, but the formation has played out and we could actually get a pullback to the breakout line again - although we did get one of those earlier this week so I am leaning toward any dip holding above the 4.45% area.
The dollar was up again but the reversal tail may be indicating a short-term pullback could be coming, and the open gap is certainly a potential target.
The Nasdaq 100, the index of the largest tech stocks, came within a whisper of its highest closing price yesterday. That's interesting, and the formation looks rather bullish. However, it too has a large, luring, open gap down by 17,440 so the battle continues.
The Dow Transportation Index plummeted on Wednesday, falling below its 50-day EMA, and Thursday's rally brought it back to the 50-day EMA but it could not close back above it. It has been trading sideways all year after the late 2023 rally, so holding above 15,500 is crucial as it appears to be the support area of a very large bullish flag.
This month's Seasonality chart, which was not very dependable in March, gets more bullish next week. I don't know if this is related to the April 15th tax deadline, but the historical bullish bias is quite apparent.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The big banks will start reporting earnings today. They can be market movers, but nothing like big tech which is still a few weeks away.
The bulls are hanging tough and the bears are getting close to missing their opportunity to ignite an elusive meaningful correction. The charts have some issues but they did improve yesterday.
DWCPF (S-fund) and the small caps held again at the 50-day EMA, but the chart is still dealing with a recent breakdown below it rising support line, and the 30-day EMA. That could all be reversed today with a move back above 2040, but until then the bears may be ready to sell rallies in the small caps, which are now facing the fact that interest rates are not dropping like we all thought a few weeks ago.
The EFA (I-fund) moved up modestly despite the Asian and and European markets being very red yesterday, so the move was based of the rally in the US after those markets closed. The 50-day EMA held at the lows yesterday and the rally was enough to put it back above 78.50, but it is still below the 30-day average. The next few days look pivotal but surprisingly the bulls may have the edge again after a few days that were touch and go for stocks.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was flat but the chart looks unapproachable except if you want to try to catch a dead-cat bounce to fill that open gap near 71.60.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
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Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The action in the S&P 500 (C-fund) has been very choppy since last week's negative outside reversal day. The reversal day suggests, not mandates, that the trend could be changing and we did see a rising support line break last week, but with the index closing back above the 30 and 15-day moving averages, the chart looks a little better than it did just a day ago. The PMO indicator continues to suggest trouble ahead, but that has lost some luster in recent weeks.
Once again, here is the 2023 chart I am comparing last week's negative outside reversal day to. After that blue rising support line broke, it traded in a range for a week or so before making another leg lower.
The 10-year Treasury Yield was up again on Thursday and it reached the inverted head and shoulders upside target. That doesn't mean it can't go higher, but the formation has played out and we could actually get a pullback to the breakout line again - although we did get one of those earlier this week so I am leaning toward any dip holding above the 4.45% area.
The dollar was up again but the reversal tail may be indicating a short-term pullback could be coming, and the open gap is certainly a potential target.
The Nasdaq 100, the index of the largest tech stocks, came within a whisper of its highest closing price yesterday. That's interesting, and the formation looks rather bullish. However, it too has a large, luring, open gap down by 17,440 so the battle continues.
The Dow Transportation Index plummeted on Wednesday, falling below its 50-day EMA, and Thursday's rally brought it back to the 50-day EMA but it could not close back above it. It has been trading sideways all year after the late 2023 rally, so holding above 15,500 is crucial as it appears to be the support area of a very large bullish flag.
This month's Seasonality chart, which was not very dependable in March, gets more bullish next week. I don't know if this is related to the April 15th tax deadline, but the historical bullish bias is quite apparent.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
The big banks will start reporting earnings today. They can be market movers, but nothing like big tech which is still a few weeks away.
The bulls are hanging tough and the bears are getting close to missing their opportunity to ignite an elusive meaningful correction. The charts have some issues but they did improve yesterday.
DWCPF (S-fund) and the small caps held again at the 50-day EMA, but the chart is still dealing with a recent breakdown below it rising support line, and the 30-day EMA. That could all be reversed today with a move back above 2040, but until then the bears may be ready to sell rallies in the small caps, which are now facing the fact that interest rates are not dropping like we all thought a few weeks ago.
The EFA (I-fund) moved up modestly despite the Asian and and European markets being very red yesterday, so the move was based of the rally in the US after those markets closed. The 50-day EMA held at the lows yesterday and the rally was enough to put it back above 78.50, but it is still below the 30-day average. The next few days look pivotal but surprisingly the bulls may have the edge again after a few days that were touch and go for stocks.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was flat but the chart looks unapproachable except if you want to try to catch a dead-cat bounce to fill that open gap near 71.60.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Daily Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
