An early afternoon rally fizzled out and stocks ended another day with losses, although there were some positive areas as extremes kick in. The Dow lost 185-points and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also suffered more losses, but we did see small caps and the I-fund managed to hold onto some of those afternoon gains. Oil continues to be the concern and President Biden banned oil imports from Russia, which could mean even higher oil prices, but that may have been priced in already.
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) created another negative reversal day after the big midday rally failed. It was another new closing low for the year and it moves to test the February intraday low. It's still in a major downtrend so any upside could be limited, but as big as the moves have been, a limited upside move could still be more than 5% before it hits resistance. Of course a new, lower low is also possible before that happens.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) managed a decent gain on the day but it had been on its way to erasing Monday's big losses before the midday rally failed. The 1775 - 1800 area will attempt to hold as support.
The EFA (I-fund) also had a good gain, and also closed well off its highs. There's a large open gap near 71 that would be a decent target area for any major relief rally.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) were down again with yields popping higher yesterday. There's a couple of overhead open gaps and a precipice drop off below 81.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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There were some signs of life although nothing that says the lows are in, but potentially an oversold bounce is trying to manifest after 2+ months of selling. The internal numbers on the NYSE and Nasdaq were positive yesterday, with advancers slightly outnumbering declining issues, and trading volume was more significantly positive.
The Yield on the 10-year Treasury moved higher making it look more like the recent double dip down to 1.7% may have created a low, but is that a head and shoulders pattern forming? H&S patterns are not necessarily bearish. They can be considered continuation patterns, and the trend is currently up. They are most vulnerable in down trending markets.
We're also inching toward a 2 year / 10 year yield inversion. Last time that happened was in the fall of 2019, and we all know what happened in early 2020.
I see that CNBC finally came up with their special programming for the market in crisis. I mentioned this several days ago as being one of the signs of a low, and last night "Oil Shock" was broadcast on CNBC.
We get the CPI report tomorrow, but like last Friday's jobs report, the market is focused on something else right now.
The Yield on the 10-year Treasury moved higher making it look more like the recent double dip down to 1.7% may have created a low, but is that a head and shoulders pattern forming? H&S patterns are not necessarily bearish. They can be considered continuation patterns, and the trend is currently up. They are most vulnerable in down trending markets.
We're also inching toward a 2 year / 10 year yield inversion. Last time that happened was in the fall of 2019, and we all know what happened in early 2020.
I see that CNBC finally came up with their special programming for the market in crisis. I mentioned this several days ago as being one of the signs of a low, and last night "Oil Shock" was broadcast on CNBC.
We get the CPI report tomorrow, but like last Friday's jobs report, the market is focused on something else right now.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) created another negative reversal day after the big midday rally failed. It was another new closing low for the year and it moves to test the February intraday low. It's still in a major downtrend so any upside could be limited, but as big as the moves have been, a limited upside move could still be more than 5% before it hits resistance. Of course a new, lower low is also possible before that happens.
The DWCPF (small caps / S-fund) managed a decent gain on the day but it had been on its way to erasing Monday's big losses before the midday rally failed. The 1775 - 1800 area will attempt to hold as support.
The EFA (I-fund) also had a good gain, and also closed well off its highs. There's a large open gap near 71 that would be a decent target area for any major relief rally.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) were down again with yields popping higher yesterday. There's a couple of overhead open gaps and a precipice drop off below 81.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
