New closing highs for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq on Monday, while the Dow and small caps posted losses. A late surge in the final minutes of trading, similar to Friday afternoon, pushed the winners to new highs and the laggards off their loss. Bonds and the dollar were down.
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There is a 2-day FOMC meeting starting today with a policy statement on Wednesday. We could see some odd action in front of the meeting on Tuesday. No changes in interest rates is expected, but any changes in the wording in the policy statement could move the markets.
There were a couple of market pundits on CNBC yesterday, both news-worthy gentlemen, who were more critical of the transitory inflation statement. They saw inflation as a real problem and suspect the Fed may have to act on rates sooner than they are saying. The bond market fell on the news and yields rallied.
The Fed knows that the stock market could be in trouble if they start raising rates, and so they've become very good at kicking the can down the road.
Yesterday saw flat to lower prices almost all day, and this 10 minute chart of the S&P 500 yesterday shows the scope of the late rally, which seemed a little artificial to me. Is the big money trying to get the dumb money to push things to new highs so they (the big money) can sell higher? It sure got my attention as you start to get that FOMO feeling.
Internally the numbers were mostly negative. There were more down issues than up on the NYSE and Nasdaq, and volume was heavily in favor of decliners on the NYSE, but on the Nasdaq the advancers did the heavy lifting.
Unless something leaks out of the FOMC meeting today, I suspect it will be more of the same today - mostly quiet with some quick pushed up and down here and there while investors jockey for position for tomorrow's policy statement.
[TD="width: 725"] Admin note: The Last Look Report is now a premium service.
The info will come in a daily email from TommyIV sent 30 minutes before the IFT deadline to help us make any last minute allocation decisions. It will also be posted in the premium area in case your email provider is delaying delivery, as we have seen with gmail during the trial period. The service will evolve after we get started as we plan on trying to incorporate a text messaging service for top 50 AutoTracker IFTs, but again we have to get passed the logistics of trying not to get blocked when sending out so many notifications. The cost of the service is $10 a month, or $5 for those already subscribed to another service. You can view a sample of what subscribers may get each morning, and there's a place to add you email to the list to receive the free report this week.
The Last Look Report Info
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The S&P 500 (C-fund) was flat to lower for most of the day but the late rally took it to new high closing territory for a third straight day. The gains haven't been large, and there seems to be some timid action leading up to this week's FOMC meeting.
The DWCPF (S-fund) rallied strongly at the opening bell but it quickly reversed back down. The over head resistance was a clear obstacle as it hits the top of the large trading range, and it is also at the top of the rising trading channel off the May lows.
The EFA (I-fund) has relentlessly ridden below the rising resistance line for a couple of weeks now, with no sign from the bears that this is a selling opportunity - yet. The Fed has the ability to move the dollar, which will move EFA, so we could be in for a little more volatility here than we've seen so far this month.
The Dow Transportation Index fell right back down after Friday's rally off the 50-day EMA. It is now looking over a steep precipice with little support below should the 50-day EMA break. Of course it could continue to hold at the 50-day EMA in which case this would be the lows for this pullback. We shall see.
The Nasdaq made a new closing high yesterday. While double tops tend to trigger pullbacks, triple tops are less vulnerable so we'll see if the bulls have any momentum left after the recent 1100 point rally off the May low, to push the Nasdaq to new highs without some backing and filling first.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell sharply. The open gap is still above for the taking near 86.20 but remember that rising trading channel from back in March - May? Well the lower support line has since been acting as resistance. If the Fed whispers of rate hikes, I would suspect this chart would breakdown.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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[TD="width: 362, align: center"]
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There is a 2-day FOMC meeting starting today with a policy statement on Wednesday. We could see some odd action in front of the meeting on Tuesday. No changes in interest rates is expected, but any changes in the wording in the policy statement could move the markets.
There were a couple of market pundits on CNBC yesterday, both news-worthy gentlemen, who were more critical of the transitory inflation statement. They saw inflation as a real problem and suspect the Fed may have to act on rates sooner than they are saying. The bond market fell on the news and yields rallied.
The Fed knows that the stock market could be in trouble if they start raising rates, and so they've become very good at kicking the can down the road.
Yesterday saw flat to lower prices almost all day, and this 10 minute chart of the S&P 500 yesterday shows the scope of the late rally, which seemed a little artificial to me. Is the big money trying to get the dumb money to push things to new highs so they (the big money) can sell higher? It sure got my attention as you start to get that FOMO feeling.
Internally the numbers were mostly negative. There were more down issues than up on the NYSE and Nasdaq, and volume was heavily in favor of decliners on the NYSE, but on the Nasdaq the advancers did the heavy lifting.
Unless something leaks out of the FOMC meeting today, I suspect it will be more of the same today - mostly quiet with some quick pushed up and down here and there while investors jockey for position for tomorrow's policy statement.
[TD="width: 725"] Admin note: The Last Look Report is now a premium service.
The info will come in a daily email from TommyIV sent 30 minutes before the IFT deadline to help us make any last minute allocation decisions. It will also be posted in the premium area in case your email provider is delaying delivery, as we have seen with gmail during the trial period. The service will evolve after we get started as we plan on trying to incorporate a text messaging service for top 50 AutoTracker IFTs, but again we have to get passed the logistics of trying not to get blocked when sending out so many notifications. The cost of the service is $10 a month, or $5 for those already subscribed to another service. You can view a sample of what subscribers may get each morning, and there's a place to add you email to the list to receive the free report this week.
The Last Look Report Info
[/TD]
The S&P 500 (C-fund) was flat to lower for most of the day but the late rally took it to new high closing territory for a third straight day. The gains haven't been large, and there seems to be some timid action leading up to this week's FOMC meeting.
The DWCPF (S-fund) rallied strongly at the opening bell but it quickly reversed back down. The over head resistance was a clear obstacle as it hits the top of the large trading range, and it is also at the top of the rising trading channel off the May lows.
The EFA (I-fund) has relentlessly ridden below the rising resistance line for a couple of weeks now, with no sign from the bears that this is a selling opportunity - yet. The Fed has the ability to move the dollar, which will move EFA, so we could be in for a little more volatility here than we've seen so far this month.
The Dow Transportation Index fell right back down after Friday's rally off the 50-day EMA. It is now looking over a steep precipice with little support below should the 50-day EMA break. Of course it could continue to hold at the 50-day EMA in which case this would be the lows for this pullback. We shall see.
The Nasdaq made a new closing high yesterday. While double tops tend to trigger pullbacks, triple tops are less vulnerable so we'll see if the bulls have any momentum left after the recent 1100 point rally off the May low, to push the Nasdaq to new highs without some backing and filling first.
BND (bonds / F-fund) fell sharply. The open gap is still above for the taking near 86.20 but remember that rising trading channel from back in March - May? Well the lower support line has since been acting as resistance. If the Fed whispers of rate hikes, I would suspect this chart would breakdown.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
