Stocks were mixed on Monday with the Dow and small caps both down on the day, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were flying high. The Dow lost 56-points and the Nasdaq led with a gain of almost 1%. Bonds rallied - yields down, the dollar was flat, oil was up, gold was down.
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I can't even say this with a straight face anymore since it doesn't seem to matter - or hasn't for a long time, but despite big gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both the NYSE and Nasdaq saw more issues down than up. Advancing volume did outpace the declining volume on the Nasdaq because most of the gains came from the more heavily traded tech stocks. For the NYSE, the trading volume was net negative.
The Yield on the 10-year Treasury fell again and remains below the moving averages. It is now resting on what may be a bear flag (red) with possible resistance just above 1.3%. Weakness in yields means bond prices moved higher.
It's the end of another month, and a wild, but profitable August it was for the bulls despite the seasonal headwinds. September is another challenged month for stocks as far as having an historical negative return over the last 30 years, but can anything stop the bulls' momentum? The Fed seems to be on their side, despite some potential tapering come up.
The next day or so may be a little chaotic for me with family coming into town, plus scheduled surgery on Tuesday morning for the wife so I will be checking in only periodically most of the day. I apologize for any inconveniences, and for the brief commentaries during this time.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) blasted through the upper end of the rising trading channel channel, once again making new highs and it's getting harder to understand what is keeping it going - although the consensus that it is the Fed. There is still an open gap within that trading channel so that may be a draw for any pullback, but the old resistance line may now try to hold as support.
The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged and closed with a slight loss, and that was enough to get it to close back below Friday's breakout line, after the false breakout in the morning. That's not unusual after a big rally, but the question remains whether those open gaps get filled or not before the "real" breakout happens.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was flat on the day so we wait another day to see which open gap gets filled first - the one above or below.
The Dow Transportation Index pulled back off of Friday's highs. Again the big numbers here outside of that bearish looking flag is whether 15,200 or 14,400 is next to be hit. A bear flag breakdown would challenge the lower number, and if this is forming a bottom then the upper number would likely be hit first.
The BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied for third straight day after reversing up from the 50-day EMA. There is now some overhead resistance to contend with so it wouldn't be too surprising to see a bit of a brief pullback from here.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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I can't even say this with a straight face anymore since it doesn't seem to matter - or hasn't for a long time, but despite big gains in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, both the NYSE and Nasdaq saw more issues down than up. Advancing volume did outpace the declining volume on the Nasdaq because most of the gains came from the more heavily traded tech stocks. For the NYSE, the trading volume was net negative.
The Yield on the 10-year Treasury fell again and remains below the moving averages. It is now resting on what may be a bear flag (red) with possible resistance just above 1.3%. Weakness in yields means bond prices moved higher.
It's the end of another month, and a wild, but profitable August it was for the bulls despite the seasonal headwinds. September is another challenged month for stocks as far as having an historical negative return over the last 30 years, but can anything stop the bulls' momentum? The Fed seems to be on their side, despite some potential tapering come up.
The next day or so may be a little chaotic for me with family coming into town, plus scheduled surgery on Tuesday morning for the wife so I will be checking in only periodically most of the day. I apologize for any inconveniences, and for the brief commentaries during this time.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) blasted through the upper end of the rising trading channel channel, once again making new highs and it's getting harder to understand what is keeping it going - although the consensus that it is the Fed. There is still an open gap within that trading channel so that may be a draw for any pullback, but the old resistance line may now try to hold as support.
The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged and closed with a slight loss, and that was enough to get it to close back below Friday's breakout line, after the false breakout in the morning. That's not unusual after a big rally, but the question remains whether those open gaps get filled or not before the "real" breakout happens.
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) was flat on the day so we wait another day to see which open gap gets filled first - the one above or below.
The Dow Transportation Index pulled back off of Friday's highs. Again the big numbers here outside of that bearish looking flag is whether 15,200 or 14,400 is next to be hit. A bear flag breakdown would challenge the lower number, and if this is forming a bottom then the upper number would likely be hit first.
The BND (bonds / F-fund) rallied for third straight day after reversing up from the 50-day EMA. There is now some overhead resistance to contend with so it wouldn't be too surprising to see a bit of a brief pullback from here.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
