Yesterday was day two of this year's Santa Claus rally and it was a good one. The Dow gained over 500-points and many of the indices were up 1.5% or more. The dollar was up yesterday and that helped break a recent trend of the I-fund leading the other stocks funds. Bonds were up on the day, but yesterday it was all about stocks and the seasonal breeze at their backs.
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I'm trying not to do a whole lot of over thinking. It's tough to fight the bullish bias during the next two weeks, although as I have noted before, often when the week before Christmas is positive, the week after has been negative, and vice versa. We have two trading days left but after the two day rally, the indices are now positive for the week, and the historical seasonality data is not quite as bullish after the 27th.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's interesting and maybe surprising that the 24th of December, Christmas Eve, has been negative on average over the last 30 years. This year we won't have a trading day on the 24th, so does that help? One difference is that when the market is open on the 24th, it is always a half day of trading, but being that the last day of trading is the 23rd this year and not Christmas Eve, it will be a full day of trading.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Other than the big rally in stocks, the spike higher in oil yesterday was noteworthy. It was up 2.7% but more importantly it moved above last week's highs, and it broke above descending resistance and the negative trend line. That's a bad sign for future gasoline prices, but perhaps a good sign for the economy? It's still below the 50-day EMA so it's not exactly back in a bull market.
Admin Note: Don't forget to sign into the AutoTracker before the end of the year if you haven't done so in a while. There are several idle accounts that may get bumped off the lists if they remain unattended by the end of the year. Logging into the Forum will help keep your account active as well, but logging into the AutoTracker itself will do that automatically.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is experiencing a timely pre-holiday rally but there is not really a clean path to higher levels without it having to clear some serious resistance at this point. 3900 and the 50-day EMA, which is currently at 3909, may test the power of the Santa Claus rally before the week is up. Trading volume is down to late summer levels and will likely fall further next week..
The DWCPF (S-fund) had a big day after holding at the November lows. There is some work to be done on the upside with that open gap near 1650, but it will have to get back above its 50-day EMA. It can possibly do that, but other than this pre-holiday reversal, the chart is pretty much broken and likely to see lower prices next year, so enjoy whatever it wants to give us during the holidays.
The EFA / I-fund lagged for the first time in a while as the dollar was up modestly. Of the three TSP stock funds, this is the only one above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages, and the recent pullback is testing those levels, as well as one support area near 64 that seems to be in play going all the way back to August. I don't know if this has the ability make a higher high, but it could easily fill that open gap above 67 in the next few days.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday, filled in an open gap, and there's now a little resistance in the way of this pre-holiday bounce.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. Happy Hanukkah to those of you celebrating! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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I'm trying not to do a whole lot of over thinking. It's tough to fight the bullish bias during the next two weeks, although as I have noted before, often when the week before Christmas is positive, the week after has been negative, and vice versa. We have two trading days left but after the two day rally, the indices are now positive for the week, and the historical seasonality data is not quite as bullish after the 27th.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
It's interesting and maybe surprising that the 24th of December, Christmas Eve, has been negative on average over the last 30 years. This year we won't have a trading day on the 24th, so does that help? One difference is that when the market is open on the 24th, it is always a half day of trading, but being that the last day of trading is the 23rd this year and not Christmas Eve, it will be a full day of trading.
Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com
Other than the big rally in stocks, the spike higher in oil yesterday was noteworthy. It was up 2.7% but more importantly it moved above last week's highs, and it broke above descending resistance and the negative trend line. That's a bad sign for future gasoline prices, but perhaps a good sign for the economy? It's still below the 50-day EMA so it's not exactly back in a bull market.
Admin Note: Don't forget to sign into the AutoTracker before the end of the year if you haven't done so in a while. There are several idle accounts that may get bumped off the lists if they remain unattended by the end of the year. Logging into the Forum will help keep your account active as well, but logging into the AutoTracker itself will do that automatically.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) is experiencing a timely pre-holiday rally but there is not really a clean path to higher levels without it having to clear some serious resistance at this point. 3900 and the 50-day EMA, which is currently at 3909, may test the power of the Santa Claus rally before the week is up. Trading volume is down to late summer levels and will likely fall further next week..
The DWCPF (S-fund) had a big day after holding at the November lows. There is some work to be done on the upside with that open gap near 1650, but it will have to get back above its 50-day EMA. It can possibly do that, but other than this pre-holiday reversal, the chart is pretty much broken and likely to see lower prices next year, so enjoy whatever it wants to give us during the holidays.
The EFA / I-fund lagged for the first time in a while as the dollar was up modestly. Of the three TSP stock funds, this is the only one above both its 50 and 200-day moving averages, and the recent pullback is testing those levels, as well as one support area near 64 that seems to be in play going all the way back to August. I don't know if this has the ability make a higher high, but it could easily fill that open gap above 67 in the next few days.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) was up yesterday, filled in an open gap, and there's now a little resistance in the way of this pre-holiday bounce.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. Happy Hanukkah to those of you celebrating! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
