TSP Talk: Flat!

Stocks were very flat on Tuesday with the Dow, S&P 500, and the EFA all up 0.03%. The Nasdaq was up a modest 0.19%, and the small caps of our S-fund were down 0.19%. Symmetry, I guess. Meanwhile the BND bond fund ETF was up 0.05%. The dollar and bonds were up.

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I had a very busy day yesterday, topped off with a bunch of technical issues on the site so not only didn't I get a good feel for what was going on yesterday in the market, but I didn't have a lot time to write about it if I did.

Fortunately it looks like it was one of the flattest days that we've seen in a while as we wrap up the second quarter. So, my apologies, but I am going to have to make this vey quick today. Since the charts barely moved from Monday, I won't even update the index charts, but if you missed Monday's commentary, I did a lot of bloviating there so you can go back and check that here. Or TSP Talk Plus subscribers can just pull up Monday's report via the premium area's menu.

Seeing those flat returns yesterday, I only had to look at the cart of the dollar to see what may have been holding things back a little. The UUP chart broke to the upside of that bull flag. It didn't quite close above the 200-day EMA or push above the flag pole high from back on 6/18, but it is showing signs of life, and that may put some pressure on prices if it continues higher.

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Treasury yields were up slightly yesterday, but continue to hold near recent lows, which is keeping bond prices and the F-fund afloat.

The VIX was up on a day stocks were also slightly higher, so that maybe a yellow flag, but it's just one day so it may not mean anything yet.




Again, sorry for the brief update. I'll leave you with the seasonality chart for July:

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Chart provided courtesy of www.sentimentrader.com


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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

Tom Crowley



Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php

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