We saw some normal light volume holiday action on Monday as traders and short sellers typically take a day like that off, so the market is mostly impacted by inflows which led to modest gains. The I-fund was flat as the dollar ticked up, and bonds were down as yields rallied on the recent stronger than expected economic data. The rest of the week has an historically bullish bias, but there's always the chance of a post-holiday reversal.
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The action was slow so I will post just a couple of charts that were the bigger movers - small caps (S-fund) and bonds (F-fund) and if you missed Monday's commentary, I'll post a link below.
DWCPF (S-fund) rallied up to again test the high from June 16. Obviously the last time it tested that area the bears came out swinging and we saw a sharp pullback, but here it is again after perhaps shaking out some weaker bulls. There's a small open gap below that was created last Friday that could demand some attention, unless there bears are still hibernating.
BND (bonds / F-fund) has been moving virtually sideways for the last month, failing to get above the 50 and 200-day EMAs repeatedly. Usually this leads to an eventual breakthrough, but each stronger than expected economic data point has swatted it back down, and now it could have a bear flag on its hands. 72.25 looks critical as support, otherwise could see another test of that orange 200-day simple average again.
We will get the June Jobs Report on Friday and estimates are looking for a gain of about 220,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. If hit or beaten, the Fed may continue to be frustrated as their every effort to slow down the economy has been feeble, although inflation does seem to be coming under control. If the report comes in too hot we'd expect the Fed to keep the pressure on interest rates.
Did you miss Monday's commentary.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The action was slow so I will post just a couple of charts that were the bigger movers - small caps (S-fund) and bonds (F-fund) and if you missed Monday's commentary, I'll post a link below.
DWCPF (S-fund) rallied up to again test the high from June 16. Obviously the last time it tested that area the bears came out swinging and we saw a sharp pullback, but here it is again after perhaps shaking out some weaker bulls. There's a small open gap below that was created last Friday that could demand some attention, unless there bears are still hibernating.
BND (bonds / F-fund) has been moving virtually sideways for the last month, failing to get above the 50 and 200-day EMAs repeatedly. Usually this leads to an eventual breakthrough, but each stronger than expected economic data point has swatted it back down, and now it could have a bear flag on its hands. 72.25 looks critical as support, otherwise could see another test of that orange 200-day simple average again.
We will get the June Jobs Report on Friday and estimates are looking for a gain of about 220,000 jobs and an unemployment rate of 3.6%. If hit or beaten, the Fed may continue to be frustrated as their every effort to slow down the economy has been feeble, although inflation does seem to be coming under control. If the report comes in too hot we'd expect the Fed to keep the pressure on interest rates.
Did you miss Monday's commentary.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
Market Commentary Archives
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading! We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
