Stocks were mixed yesterday with large tech stocks leading on the upside, while those region banks pulled down the small cap indices. The gains in the S&P 500 gave the C-fund to a gain, but the S-fund took a hit from those bank stocks, and the I-fund lagged with the dollar bouncing back yesterday. Bonds were down as yields spiked after a 0.50% rate hike announcement out of the Bank of England.
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The Dow was flat, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up nicely, but the internals show it wasn't that great of a day overall as declining issues on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq easily outpaced the advancing stocks. Trading volume was similarly bad on the NYSE while the Nasdaq was only flat despite the 1% gain, as the heavily traded big tech stocks helped keep it even.
Despite the big day for the Nasdaq, there were actually twice as many new 52-week lows, than new highs.
This two day chart of the S&P 500 (C-fund) and DWCPF (S-fund) show that the S-fund is finding some resistance while the S&P was able to push above it. The question is whether this was a one day event, or are small caps getting ready to lag again and lead on the downside?
The financial sector hasn't quite gotten back on track like some of the other major indices as the XLF shows a big bear flag, which failed at the 200-day EMA this week, and is now pulling back to test the support of the key 50-day EMA.
The small regional bank stocks have been rallying off the May lows, but that rally may be in jeopardy as yesterday's 3% decline pushed it below some rising support, and it looks like 40 will be a meaningful test area today.
The bulls have made a really good move in recent weeks and that helped investor sentiment go from very bearish, to near extreme bullishness, which is causing a little short-term weakness. That's because those who say they are bullish have likely bought already. Despite the recent pullback, which could have more to go, I still give the bulls the nod if they can bounce back and keep this recent modest pullback shallow, but those small caps and bank stocks may have something else in mind that may keep the pressure on the bulls.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell below some key support yesterday, but managed to bounce back and close just above that blue channel again. Trading volume was very light yesterday so it wasn't a rush from money managers to do buying. It was more of a relief rally after three down days, but now we'll see if the bears really mean business as they would be selling rallies if they are back in charge.
The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged badly but they did close well off their lows and found some support at the top of that old trading channel. That's four down days in a row. Let's see if the dip buyers are still hanging around, or if instead, the crowd is still selling those regional bank stocks.
The EFA (I-fund) was down sharply as the dollar was up, but the action nearly filled that blue gap that opened last week. There's open gaps above and below. The trend is positive here until something breaks.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) can't seem to find a direction recently as it has been moving sideways all month. It has created an interesting dichotomy of flags. One is a big bear flag (red) and the other a smaller bull flag in blue. The 200-day simple average has been able to keep this from falling and filling that old open gap near 71.50.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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The Dow was flat, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq were up nicely, but the internals show it wasn't that great of a day overall as declining issues on both the NYSE and the Nasdaq easily outpaced the advancing stocks. Trading volume was similarly bad on the NYSE while the Nasdaq was only flat despite the 1% gain, as the heavily traded big tech stocks helped keep it even.
Despite the big day for the Nasdaq, there were actually twice as many new 52-week lows, than new highs.
This two day chart of the S&P 500 (C-fund) and DWCPF (S-fund) show that the S-fund is finding some resistance while the S&P was able to push above it. The question is whether this was a one day event, or are small caps getting ready to lag again and lead on the downside?
The financial sector hasn't quite gotten back on track like some of the other major indices as the XLF shows a big bear flag, which failed at the 200-day EMA this week, and is now pulling back to test the support of the key 50-day EMA.
The small regional bank stocks have been rallying off the May lows, but that rally may be in jeopardy as yesterday's 3% decline pushed it below some rising support, and it looks like 40 will be a meaningful test area today.
The bulls have made a really good move in recent weeks and that helped investor sentiment go from very bearish, to near extreme bullishness, which is causing a little short-term weakness. That's because those who say they are bullish have likely bought already. Despite the recent pullback, which could have more to go, I still give the bulls the nod if they can bounce back and keep this recent modest pullback shallow, but those small caps and bank stocks may have something else in mind that may keep the pressure on the bulls.
The S&P 500 (C-fund) fell below some key support yesterday, but managed to bounce back and close just above that blue channel again. Trading volume was very light yesterday so it wasn't a rush from money managers to do buying. It was more of a relief rally after three down days, but now we'll see if the bears really mean business as they would be selling rallies if they are back in charge.
The DWCPF (S-fund) lagged badly but they did close well off their lows and found some support at the top of that old trading channel. That's four down days in a row. Let's see if the dip buyers are still hanging around, or if instead, the crowd is still selling those regional bank stocks.
The EFA (I-fund) was down sharply as the dollar was up, but the action nearly filled that blue gap that opened last week. There's open gaps above and below. The trend is positive here until something breaks.
BND (Bonds / F-fund) can't seem to find a direction recently as it has been moving sideways all month. It has created an interesting dichotomy of flags. One is a big bear flag (red) and the other a smaller bull flag in blue. The 200-day simple average has been able to keep this from falling and filling that old open gap near 71.50.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.html
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Thanks so much for reading. Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
