The New Year started out on a bit of a roller coaster as we had a gap up open, then the gap quickly got filled, and then things sold off sharply before bouncing back later in the afternoon. There was a 700-point swing in the Dow on day one so if that's what we have in store for 2025, it could be wild year, which means potentially good market timing possibilities. That's yet another down day (now 5 of 6) in the Santa Claus rally period, with one trading day to go.
You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
This is the final day of my brief commentary. It's not just because of the holidays enjoying visiting family and friends, but this also happens to be the busiest week of the year for me as the TSP Talk website proprietor. Updating spreadsheets, getting the AutoTracker wrapped up for the year and awarding prizes for the prior year contests, then updating the code and database for the new year. Every year the AutoTracker program gets a little more automated but I do still have a lot of manual updates to do to get the new year started. Plus the Guess the Dow Contest finished for 2024 and started for 2025, etc., so I'm not being lazy - and there's just a lot going on. I'll also be attacking all manual references of "2024" and changing them to 2025, but every year I find a reference to the old year that I miss. It never fails.
While I am talking about the administrative side of the site, I will send an early reminder that we will likely start our annual premium services sale later this month. Annual subscription renewals are not automatic, although I may change that to make it easier on all of us. But for now, if your subscription is expiring soon, or if you have a monthly subscription that you would like to convert to an annual subscription to save some money, I will put out some information in a week or two on how to take advantage. (Intrepid Timer does not offer annual subscriptions.) Thanks!
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a wide trading range yesterday and technically it may have been a negative outside reversal day. The key support area near 5825, which is the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, was tested again and, other than a potential fill of the early November open gap, this chart needs to bounce soon or the bears could take full control. It has closed below the 50-day EMA for a 3rd straight day so it's close to now or never for the bullish trending chart.
DWCPF (S-fund) has a similar set up but the last couple of trading days did see this outperform and it actually closed with a decent gain yesterday, so small caps are making an early bid to take the lead in 2025, but they are flirting with trouble down here.
This market leader is also on the brink of disaster - or it could bounce off the support that is still in the neighborhood and lead the market higher. Unfortunately there are a lot of these indices at an if, then, else area on the chart.
Thanks for your patience with some of these quickie holiday commentaries. I will be back on my normal schedule on Monday morning.
--------------------
I'll leave this here another day and over the weekend for anyone who missed it:
The 2024 AutoTracker contest has ended and here is the list of winners. Great job! Here are the final standings.
Just 10 members were able to beat the +24.96% return of the C-fund for the year, and two of them started after the first day in January of 2024 so they didn't qualify for the full year return prizes, but the returns were still quite impressive.
You can find more information here about the Monthly and 2024 winners. The winners have been sent a Direct Message in the Forum.
How to be included
Prizes are awarded for top monthly and annual returns!
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) lost 0.21% yesterday. This chart looks bad but it will likely be guided by US stocks to some degree. Unfortunately the strong dollar has been its anchor.
BND (bonds / F-fund) ticked up slightly despite yields showing some strength again yesterday. The chart is on thin ice but it was able to close above that 200-day EMA for a third straight day, and that's a positive sign given the bearish look of the chart. I still think the 10-year Treasury Yield (lower chart below) needs to fall below 4.5% before the F-fund will look appealing.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
| Daily TSP Funds Return
More returns |
You can see the latest updated TSP share prices and returns, usually posted daily by 8:30 PM ET here: https://www.tsptalk.com/tsp_share_prices.php
This is the final day of my brief commentary. It's not just because of the holidays enjoying visiting family and friends, but this also happens to be the busiest week of the year for me as the TSP Talk website proprietor. Updating spreadsheets, getting the AutoTracker wrapped up for the year and awarding prizes for the prior year contests, then updating the code and database for the new year. Every year the AutoTracker program gets a little more automated but I do still have a lot of manual updates to do to get the new year started. Plus the Guess the Dow Contest finished for 2024 and started for 2025, etc., so I'm not being lazy - and there's just a lot going on. I'll also be attacking all manual references of "2024" and changing them to 2025, but every year I find a reference to the old year that I miss. It never fails.
While I am talking about the administrative side of the site, I will send an early reminder that we will likely start our annual premium services sale later this month. Annual subscription renewals are not automatic, although I may change that to make it easier on all of us. But for now, if your subscription is expiring soon, or if you have a monthly subscription that you would like to convert to an annual subscription to save some money, I will put out some information in a week or two on how to take advantage. (Intrepid Timer does not offer annual subscriptions.) Thanks!
The S&P 500 (C-fund) had a wide trading range yesterday and technically it may have been a negative outside reversal day. The key support area near 5825, which is the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern, was tested again and, other than a potential fill of the early November open gap, this chart needs to bounce soon or the bears could take full control. It has closed below the 50-day EMA for a 3rd straight day so it's close to now or never for the bullish trending chart.
DWCPF (S-fund) has a similar set up but the last couple of trading days did see this outperform and it actually closed with a decent gain yesterday, so small caps are making an early bid to take the lead in 2025, but they are flirting with trouble down here.
This market leader is also on the brink of disaster - or it could bounce off the support that is still in the neighborhood and lead the market higher. Unfortunately there are a lot of these indices at an if, then, else area on the chart.
Thanks for your patience with some of these quickie holiday commentaries. I will be back on my normal schedule on Monday morning.
--------------------
I'll leave this here another day and over the weekend for anyone who missed it:
The 2024 AutoTracker contest has ended and here is the list of winners. Great job! Here are the final standings.
Just 10 members were able to beat the +24.96% return of the C-fund for the year, and two of them started after the first day in January of 2024 so they didn't qualify for the full year return prizes, but the returns were still quite impressive.
You can find more information here about the Monthly and 2024 winners. The winners have been sent a Direct Message in the Forum.
How to be included
Prizes are awarded for top monthly and annual returns!
ACWX (the I-fund tracking index) lost 0.21% yesterday. This chart looks bad but it will likely be guided by US stocks to some degree. Unfortunately the strong dollar has been its anchor.
BND (bonds / F-fund) ticked up slightly despite yields showing some strength again yesterday. The chart is on thin ice but it was able to close above that 200-day EMA for a third straight day, and that's a positive sign given the bearish look of the chart. I still think the 10-year Treasury Yield (lower chart below) needs to fall below 4.5% before the F-fund will look appealing.
Thanks so much for reading! Have a great weekend!
Tom Crowley
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Questions, comments, or issues with today's commentary? We can discuss it in the Forum.
Daily Market Commentary Archives
For more info our other premium services, please go here... www.tsptalk.com/premiums.php
To get weekly or daily notifications when we post new commentary, sign up HERE.
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
