TRULY BAFFLING I FUND

[Mike]

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Birchtree wrote:

Mike,

You certainly do have the critical eye approach-I like that. Now there may come a time in about 2 years from now when perhaps I may consider moving into the I fund on a more indepth basis. But if you don't mind I would like permission to solicit you opinion before I make that move. OK? I'm long the C fund until then. Regards,

Dennis

I have this approach to women too, if you need any advice there. :l

My opinion on the I fund probably won't be very helpful. I expected the I fund to take a hit this year, but in hindsight, I was a bitearly on the prediction. I posted an article on the subject of record money flow and pricingon the EAFEa few months ago, and that prediction turned out to be the correct one - but it took an awfully long time to materialize (and the fund rose about another $1 per share before falling back).

The only reason I'm keeping my long term allocation at 20% in the I fund is because I know the fund will continue to struggle - which makes it easier to buy it at lower prices. With a 40 year+ investment horizon, there really is no point in waiting for the fund to make some decent gains and *then* buy in. The cycles tend to even out over a long period of time, so I'll maintain present exposure there. The S fund is where I am most likely to do my tweaking later this year (presently 30% is there).

 

[Pete1]

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12 month returns as of April 2005: I fund 15%, EAFE 14.95%.I fund tracksEAFE very closely on a long term basis which is exactly what an index fund is designed to do. As noted above, the I fund does not track EAFE's daily pricing to prevent short term timing and dilution of returns for long term investors. Good luckwith attempts to time this fund daily.I prefer blackjack - the odds appear to be better.

 

[tsptalk]

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Pete1 wrote:

12 month returns as of April 2005: I fund 15%, EAFE 14.95%.

That puts things into perspective. Thanks.

Additionally, the EFA that I use to follow the I fund is down 2.78% for the year. I fund is also down 2.78% this year.

 

[The_Technician]

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Nnews out on the I Fund robber!!!

APR Newswire (5/22/2005) by Lee

Robber found in the Government Retirement Account

It was reported today that a lone robber was spotted running from the back door of the TSP savings office for the U.S. Government. The robbers name was Juwanna Money from LA. Officers on the scene described the man as white male average height carrying a large money bag with over $5,000,000,000.

The TSP office maintains retirement accounts for over 95% of the Government Employees. It is said that speculation has been rampant that the office had been stealing monies specifically from one of the funds they maintain. The fund specified was the International fund and it was said that the allocations didn't follow market activity.

Arraignment will be held tomorrow in LA courts. Bond will be set for $1,000,000,500.







:dude:

 

[Guest]

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The Technician wrote:

Nnews out on the I Fund robber!!!

APR Newswire (5/22/2005) by Lee

Robber found in the Government Retirement Account

The robbers name was Juwanna Money from LA. Officers on the scene described the man as white male average height carrying a large money bag with over $5,000,000,000.

Arraignment will be held tomorrow in LA courts. Bond will be set for $1,000,000,500.:dude:

Hey Tech!

I caught the robber!

I Juwanna Money! How about an award?

 

[The_Technician]

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Yep....guess we put that to rest......

Only reward I can see right at the moment is if the market would go back to being normal.....today they set a new level and I expect the market to either go nowhere else today or down.....it should be down over the next several days......and then we will go from there....

That's the only reward I can give you at the moment......I hope its worth something...:^

I like your diligence Tom.....but it looks apparent the market has stretched their legs a bit here lately....it could be a good move to consolidate in G for a few days just to get in at a lower level later.....then again.....the market is being weird but like I said ....stretched out right now....S fund really is performing good lately....C's not bad either....

The Technician:dude:

 

[SonRod8a]

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It's Sunday night in Europe, 29 March. The polls in most of France are closed. The feeling toneis that the people of France are probably going to REJECT the European Constitution, which means that there will be no "United Europe." It's all or nothing. 25 countries must agree or the constitution is down the tubes and Europe is back to square one trying to build political unity. Nine countries already approved this through referendum or popular vote. My understanding is that it passed in Germany through referendum... not popular vote. Since February, the oui/non exit polls have fluctuated tremendously. This sort of wishy washy confidence in the future of Europe may have an affect on the strength of the Euro. It is down $1.25 = 1€ which still SUCKS but is better than $1.33 = 1€. So, if France votes "non" you may want to bail out of the I fund. If France votes "oui" you may want to hang in there.

 

[pyriel]

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SonRod8a wrote:

It's Sunday night in Europe, 29 March. The polls in most of France are closed. The feeling toneis that the people of France are probably going to REJECT the European Constitution, which means that there will be no "United Europe." It's all or nothing. 25 countries must agree or the constitution is down the tubes and Europe is back to square one trying to build political unity. Nine countries already approved this through referendum or popular vote. My understanding is that it passed in Germany through referendum... not popular vote. Since February, the oui/non exit polls have fluctuated tremendously. This sort of wishy washy confidence in the future of Europe may have an affect on the strength of the Euro. It is down $1.25 = 1€ which still SUCKS but is better than $1.33 = 1€. So, if France votes "non" you may want to bail out of the I fund. If France votes "oui" you may want to hang in there.

I was following what is going on at Europe and was ready to go 100i as soon as France decides to approve the European constitution. My take on this is that there will be a euphoria of unitedness and i fund will start to bounce back (even if it is short lived). However, since France once again decided to be a party pooper, i fund will continue to tank down. What does this mean for the dollar? I think it will continue to be strong. I disagree with Tech's assessment that c/s is stretched out right now. I thinkc/s will continue to be strong for a couple more weeks just like what Tom had predicted. Everything else points to that direction (at least for now). Tech, DMA, and Greg have beentalking about the possibility of the market to tank and if they keep doing it, they would actually get it right. However, knowing when would that happen is anyone's guess. It is like saying that one of these days we will have a 29 days in February. I say, continue to watch the market, be informed about what is going on around the world and make a decision to move to g fund if one feels that it is time to take your profit. Unlike some other retirement investments like 401k or IRAs, we at least have the flexibility to hide or save our profit to g fund within a day or two. In the last couple of weeks alone, i've gained several percentage points being heavily in stox which I would never have done if I let my fear lead me to the g fund. For now, I am 50c50s with fingers on the trigger.