Transfer 9/1 for 9/2/04

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

The man loves pain. I love ya Tom. Today is profit taking from the index funds having to buy stock yesterday.

What made you change today???

MT

No follow-up?

I'm sure the market will give me a helping of humble pie shortly, but this underlying worry is what will keep the market afloat. This looked a little like a short covering rally because of the explosiveness. We've talked about that quite a bit lately so I won't rehash.

Tom was really sick on Wednesday and was in the hospital Thursday and just got "out". The rally was a fools rally....gang buster job report and we caught Osama rally. Wonder who started that rumour the day prior to the pres speech? X Files stuff.

 

[Guest]

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Tom,

We caught Osama and the Friday job report will be gang buster rally rumour got you excited???? Sucker's rally. Anyone that bought into that on Thursday eat crow Friday.

If the market has to go up with rumours and false reports I do not want to be in it.\

What is your outlook for next week?

MT

 

[Guest]

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Oink, Oink Mr Rico,

You got greedy. You moved out of a fund that dropped .15 per share. The goal is to buy them after they fell 15 cents.

Cramer in March 2000 said buy tech funds "hands over fist" because this is a great buying opportunity to buy cheap tech stocks of their Jan 00 lows. The NASDAQ went on to drop -38.7 the rest of the year.

He has been talking up Nortel and Intel since June - what are they down now 50%. Never, never take 50% loses in a stock. When it drops 5% sell.

MT

puertorico wrote:

from 100 I-fund

moving today 50-G 10-C 10-S 30-I

EFFECTIVE FRIDAY [3RD]

BECOUSE

BULLS MAKE MONEY,BEARS MAKE MONEY

AND PIGS GET SLAUGHTERD "JAMES CRAMMER"....:^

 

[Guest]

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We caught Osama and the job reportwill begang busters was a sucker's rally (Thursday). I believe Friday was the reality and Thursday was political smoke and mirrows in front of the big speech. Intel moved their earnings guidance report from mid afternoon to the close. If that report came out midafternoon as scheduled that would of been a bad day to be in the S fund. It is hard to time when key reports are moved.

However, the raising inventories while cutting prices in the auto reports is not bullish. Do not have the exact numbers but lots of negative sales growth in their reports even with these 0% five year interest plans and rebates. Squeezing margins. Good for the consumer short term, then bad for stocks then bad for the economy. Like dominoes...they are starting to fall.

mlk_man wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

Watch what happens when the auto report comes out this afternoon to the markets.

Damn, thanks for the warning MT. S fund + 9 cents.........LOL

 

[tsptalk]

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FBGATC wrote:

What's your predictions for the middle of september and mid october?

:dude:

Welcome FBGATC!

I have been sticking with the thought that we will have a very good year before it is over. I'm not ruling out 15% to 25% gains. So the way I am playing it is to stay invested as much as possible.

This is one of those situations where if someone guaranteedme a 20% gain if Istayed invested, then I tried to squeeze out 25% by trading and timing things. It doesn't always go according to plan so I'm going to try to get that"20%" gain without getting too cute.

It reminds me of the jokeabout the guy who gives his friend a tip to bet on the home team in tonight'sbasketball game. The guy tells him the visitors have amajor injury that has not been reported. The ref is from the home town and has been bribed to make calls go their way.The visitor's plane was delayed several hours and the they had to travel the entire night. His friend says, "Wow! Great!". Now can you give me another team so I can parlay it?

The moral - Don't screw up a sure thing bytrying to make more. I am often guilty of that :?.

 

[tsptalk]

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oneyoungbuck wrote:

After reading your Allocation report today I couldnt help but say "Now I get it". I understand the "Trap" you are talking about. I assumed the Market would be down today but I stayed invested with the thought it was just a trend of some sort. But now I see the "LIGHT", well done.

I'm glad someone got it. I'm not the best writer and I don't always convey my message very well.

 

[Guest]

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Joined I fund at 12.81 just jumped ship at 13.15 to the G fund for the weekend thanks for the advice. :^

 

[Guest]

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What's your predictions for the middle of september and mid october?

:dude:

 

[nnuut]

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So thats what it was! I could see no good reason for such a strong, short rally? :?It was the Darn BEARS selling off!! Too bad I'm all "G", but had no warning? Learn something every day!:i

 

[oneyoungbuck]

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After reading your Allocation report today I couldnt help but say "Now I get it". I understand the "Trap" you are talking about. I assumed the Market would be down today but I stayed invested with the thought it was just a trend of some sort. But now I see the "LIGHT", well done.

 

[puertorico]

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thank cindy

holidays ,Can be a weekend for terrosism...:?

 

[Cinderella]

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Keep in mind that Monday is a holiday.

 

[puertorico]

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Todays nasdag have been hammered baddly will be interesting

to put some in S for monday ? thinking abou it ,20 minute left !

BUt september is the worse month in the season.

dOnt know where to move ?...

 

[tsptalk]

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MarketTimer wrote:

The man loves pain. I love ya Tom. Today is profit taking from the index funds having to buy stock yesterday.

What made you change today???

MT

No follow-up?

I'm sure the market will give me a helping of humble pie shortly, but this underlying worry is what will keep the market afloat. This looked a little like a short covering rally because of the explosiveness. We've talked about that quite a bit lately so I won't rehash.

 

[puertorico]

imported post

from 100 I-fund

moving today 50-G 10-C 10-S 30-I

EFFECTIVE FRIDAY [3RD]

BECOUSE

BULLS MAKE MONEY,BEARS MAKE MONEY

AND PIGS GET SLAUGHTERD "JAMES CRAMMER"....:^

 

[Guest]

imported post

mlk_man wrote:

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

I do not like it when people lose money. But it is good practice for them I guess. School of hard knocks. :x

Wasn't talking about the people here, talking about people in general. I don't think the report will do a whole lot at all. We'll see............

God I hate when I'm right, :!

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Watch what happens when the auto report comes out this afternoon to the markets.

Damn, thanks for the warning MT. S fund + 9 cents.........LOL

 

[tsptalk]

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jonwayner wrote:

Thank you Tom, reading TSP talk is educating me and giving me more confidence. I was like this :s and now I hope by the time I retire I am like this :dude:, with a little hair gel, or like this will do too. Thanks again.

Jon

Great! Welcome Jon.

 

[Guest]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

He switch to I fund effective today. I posted the international markets had a bang up day today. He said he was going 100% F today.

MT

Like I said..............

 

[Guest]

imported post

MarketTimer wrote:

Milk,

I do not like it when people lose money. But it is good practice for them I guess. School of hard knocks. :x

Wasn't talking about the people here, talking about people in general. I don't think the report will do a whole lot at all. We'll see............