Transfer 6/28 for 6/29/04

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I'm going to 30% G, 40% C and 30% S before the deadline today, which will be effective Tuesday.

If today can close strong I will feel good about making this move. The last two days in June are not quite as clear and with the interestrate decision pending, I'll go back to 70% stocks for tomorrow (Tuesday). For now, large caps look to be trying to catch up to the small caps and I'm lightening upa bit. I'll probably go back into 100% stocks by Thursday or Friday if the market can pull back a little Tuesday and Wednesday.
 
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Doesn't look like today is going to close strong. It sure did at the onset, though.

What happened?

Fizzle Fizzle Fizzle...
 
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Rod wrote:
What happened?
I think the market got a little over bought on the very short term and the selling triggered more. I'm not too worried because it held above the 1130 area which was the first pullback target.

The problem with the small caps was that late Friday, there was a big sell off in the large caps that did not seem to affect the smaller stocks. Today the large caps had a little better bounce and the small caps took their lumps. Bad timing.

I wonder howthe market will react Tuesday. Those interest rate hikes make people a little nervous. I still want to be fully invested by Thursday or Friday. This pullback isn't such a bad thing for the market. It wasn't great for those ofus in the S fund today but I suspect this is a temporary hiccup.
 
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I followed your lead today and went with 30 G 40 C and 30 S. Personally I think there will be a quick boost withthe interest rate rise on Wednesday. Do you think there will be a sell-off on Friday if stocks do rise on Thu.

CheapShot
 
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That's my thinking Cheapshot. I'm currently 50% C, 50% I. Was going to change to all G today, but think I'll just ride it till Thursday, get out for Friday, then back in for tuesday. First day after the 4th is typically a good day.
 
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I'm out of sync with these short term moves right now. I'd hate to try to make a call. I am really torn between a few considerations. Here's what I believe:

1) We are coming up on the eventual breakout to new highs for the indices. Next week or next month, I don't know.

2) Put / call ratios and sentiment surveys are making me nervous. A little too muchbullishness from the "herd" and the more savvy investors are getting bearish.

3) Early July is a great time to be in the market.

If the market is strong, any selling will be bought as we are seeing today. I am getting less inclined to trade this market and just get myself invested. So if I get in 100% on Thursday, I probably won't jump out until the market gets overbought, which could be soon if we get a strong rally. If things played out perectly, the rally would continue through July 14th (the 9th trading day in July, see July chart in comments)and then we'd get a week of pullback before the rally started again.That is wishful thinking as we could be weeks away from that happening.

So there you have it. Conclusion?None yet. :(
 
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Small caps came out of the gate first today but the large caps have taken the lead... Down the stretch they come!

The dollar is up big today. The I fund will take it on the chin. :*
 
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