Transfer 11/26 for 11/29/04

[puertorico]

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Smedlap Wrote....You should be counting your money Puertorico:
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Wao from 14.70 to 14.75I can no wait unstil tomorrow to count
money "100% I-fund.But now a little scare :shock:Monday do not take back:?

Maybe Itakehalf out of the table Monday becouse historical season look
to good TO move all to G .:shock:I'm greedy again:?.

Maybe 30-g 30-c 30-s 10-I EFFECTIVE Tuesday.

[Is the law to grap the profit].

Tom Thank for the Chart look good to Me.Tom I like those number too
1985 +56.14%
1986 +69.46%. .

 

[Show-me]

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tsptalk wrote:

I think there could be some profit taking across the board so it was getting something into the G fund that was my main concern. We'll see how it plays out.

I'd love to see a quick two day pullback early next week and and then have the early December seasonality strength kick in. Wishful thinking.

:!I'm hope'n your right again.:!

 

[Timer]

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tsptalk wrote:

Think this year's 15% gain in the I fund is high? Take a look at the numbers in the 80's for the international indices. Mind boggling.

Tom, was the dollar falling during this I fund golden age? Can you imagine?

 

[tsptalk]

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Timer wrote:

Tom, was the dollar falling during this I fund golden age? Can you imagine?

Like a rock during those 50 and 60% years. It actually went up in 83 and 84.

For the record, I don't expect this now. We are likely to stay within the 80-100 "normal" range. We are close to the bottom so I doubt we'll see those 1980's returns. My 75% I fund allocation is temporary...

Chart provided courtesy of [url]http://www.decisionpoint.com[/url]

 

[smedlap]

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Tom, many excellent posts here but you're driving the boat. I need to argue about December's play. Brings out the best plan from many contributers. I liked your chart. Once again value and an excellent opportunity for argument to bring the best out of all of us which translates into revenue! What is your perspective on the historical S&P decline during primarily the second week of December? I agree that we will enjoy a similar rise following as that which is reflected inyour chart. Plausibly a 3 to 4% gain with the S&P at around 1225 for the year. It's the value to me of the dip or consolidation during that second week? I noted that the FOMC has traditionally met during CY01- Dec 11, CY02: Dec 10, CY03 - Dec 9 and for CY04 - a belated Dec 14. The dip or consolidation appears to have a relationship.Are the big players using this as an opportunity to churn the market for their gain? I think so.Furthermore, the I fund didn't much blink and in fact following 2 days trading was up + 30 on Nov 10, 04. I'm thinking about staying IFund. Contrarian views please!!! Again thanks Tom. Before, we could not ask these questions, challenge or develop an informed strategy!

 

[crondanet5]

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why did you not elect 100% I Fund?

 

[tsptalk]

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smedlap wrote:

I need to argue about December's play. Brings out the best plan from many contributers. I liked your chart. Once again value and an excellent opportunity for argument to bring the best out of all of us which translates into revenue! What is your perspective on the historical S&P decline during primarily the second week of December?

smedlap -
When historical or seasonality data is on your side or going against you, it should be treated as breeze in your face or at your back. In other words if the trend is currently up but seasonality is weak, expect a bit more of astruggle. Not much, but it is certainly present.

When we are in an uptrend and seasonailty is at your back, it gives us that much more confidence in the trend.

In early July the seasonality data could not have been better. The market however wanted to stay stuck in its consolidation and unfortunately in early July it was at the top of the trading range. I ended up losing somewhere near 9% in July:shock:. It has really hurt my return thisyear.

So, my thinking is that we are in an uptrend but we are alsodue for a pullback. If the market can stay up through the first week ofDecember, I would suspect the pullback could start during the second week. There has been a lot of money made over the last several weeks and investors will scramble to protect it. That said, we are in a strong bull market so I won't go below 50% stocks because I'd be fighting the trend.

I hope that helps.
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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crondanet5 wrote:

why did you not elect 100% I Fund?

The reason for that interfund transfer was not to get into the I fund, but to get 25% of my money out of stocks for a couple of days.

I went 25% G because I half suspect the market will digest some of those holiday gains. I used the I fund in case the dollar decides to keep falling which would keep the I fund from falling too much if international indices fall. That could certainly backfire.

Read those market comments daily!

Last week I said, "I am weighing the possibility for a transfer either on Friday (for Monday) or on Monday (for Tuesday) to lighten up on stocks."

Tom

 

[smedlap]

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Your comments always help and are warmly accepted. I see 3 big events next week which are Tuesday GDP, Wednesday Mfg ISM, and Friday - Employment. All 3 should report most favorable. But 2 weeks later - FOMC with a true rate hike. I agree that there will be a pullback and then a bounce. It's just as hard to make money as to nlosing it. I had many bad summer months also. I feel much better now with recent gains.

Thanks for your lead!

 

[Rod]

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Hey Tom, aren't you glad you accidentally went 75% I???

I thought you wererather too bullishat first. But hey, it looks like you will be enjoying some handsome gains today.

Good for you, and for those who followed!

God Bless:^

 

[smedlap]

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Rod, you must be one early bird to be posting at 4:21. I had to look twice at the international markets and the US pre-market numbers. Seems like the start of a great day. Agree, glad I'm 100% in stocks.

 

[Rod]

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smedlap wrote:

Rod, you must be one early bird to be posting at 4:21. I had to look twice at the international markets and the US pre-market numbers. Seems like the start of a great day. Agree, glad I'm 100% in stocks.

Early bird gets the worm right???

Well... not exactly in my case.

Will give it a go tomorrow, though.:^

 

[Mike]

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All of the foreign markets are up somewhere in the 0.5 - 1.4% range.

I still think we get a better bang for our buck in the S fund, and that's where my next major move will go (although I am going to leave 1/4 in I to cover my butt with the weak dollar).