Transfer 11/26 for 11/29/04

[tsptalk]

imported post

I'm making an interfund transfer this morning going to 25% G, 75% I fund effective Monday.

I sent out two emails this morning. The first was a mistake as I transposed the numbers. The correct allocation is25% G, 75% I fund.

Thanks,
Tom

 

[Guest]

imported post

Hey Tom, hope you had a good holiday. Question, why the loadup the I fund--other then the obvious dollar saga. I am currently 35% I, and have been toying with the idea of loading more in ther I fund.

 

[puertorico]

imported post

Tom do you have december seAson historical ?

I wonder when gonna reflec in the market today
and weekend bargains in store ?.

"Everybody is out in the street doing bargain"...

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Plausibly the dollar is going to continue to drop against European and asian currencies, china and other countries are thinking about letting their currency float vice a peg against the dollar and US near term market consolidation with follow onbump up. S Fund is doing just fine against the I, maybe just slightly behind. I am 100% I and have been for some time.

 

[puertorico]

imported post

I'm 100% I fund too becouse the dollar vs euro,I think gonna
stay put unstil dec.3rd...

 

[smedlap]

imported post

You should be counting your money Puertorico. Good that you follow the advice of Tom and watch the board so closely. I personally think you are Ok thru mid to late January with an upward trend in C, better S and an even better I. Oil remains too high and when it starts to drop, a positive market tail wind. There may be some opportunities (bumps) in which to improve one's portfolio over the next 30 days and Tom will send up a signal. I study his calls, and make my recommendations. He's a good caller. Market does get hard to play but not right now. Good luck as this has been one fine month so far!

 

[puertorico]

imported post

I just visiting share prices historical tsp.gov
from nov.28 to dec.3rd last year was up .
and December look good ,watch out after dec.
3rd and inthe third week them look good. to me.

Thank smedlap for u comment about $$$$$$...

 

[puertorico]

imported post

Date




I Fund

Dec 31, 2003




12.90

Dec 30, 2003




12.82

Dec 29, 2003




12.70

Dec 26, 2003




12.63

Dec 24, 2003




12.61

Dec 23, 2003




12.56

Dec 22, 2003




12.51

Dec 19, 2003




12.46

Dec 18, 2003




12.42

Dec 17, 2003




12.35

Dec 16, 2003




12.34

Dec 15, 2003




12.41

Dec 12, 2003




12.30

Dec 11, 2003




12.18

Dec 10, 2003




12.17

Dec 09, 2003




12.28

Dec 08, 2003




12.23

Dec 05, 2003




12.26

Dec 04, 2003




12.27

Dec 03, 2003




12.29

Dec 02, 2003




12.23

Dec 01, 2003




12.15

Nov 28, 2003




11.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Well Puertorico, think we played this day very well with a .8% gain in I Fund, and think we are best positioned for Monday's market. Expect 3-4% C fund gain by 31 Dec at best w/ S&P at near 1225. But I think the ride will be I and S funds. Will look for Tom's alerts to bumps. Nice weekend, I'm out of here!

 

[smine]

imported post

But it's 14.70 now. Wonder how that computes?!

 

[puertorico]

imported post

My instint tell me that I-FUND will be high which the dollar down
even in a down day for the market,but international pay some profit.

S-FUNDin hishigher from 13.99 to his higher 14.11

I-FUND his higher was 14.74 now 14.70 rightHERE has more room than S.



DOLLAR VS EURO

RED = DOLLAR
BLUE = EURO

HIGH EURO = INTERNATIONAL GAIN "I-FUND" :^GOOD LUCK

 

[puertorico]

imported post

i WAS thinking in get out for Monday but
this season historical is good and people
buying like crazy,dont let me grab the profit "that I supposed to do"

PLus dollar downdont let me to get out from I-fund...

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

retire rich wrote:

why the loadup the I fund--other then the obvious dollar saga.

I'm tired of fighting the falling dollar.

 

[smedlap]

imported post

Market closed at 13:00 today as a short trading day. At1300 time posting, EFA was at 81%, but with closing adjustments - ended up at 58%. C and S funds adjusted down also. Feels good. Agree with Tom, dollar fight is too hard. Dollar is expected to drop to 1.4 to the Euro, maybe higher by 31 Dec and the yen likewise. The Q. is when will it hurt so much that governments step in to buy dollars. Nice weekend, as we have"all" alreadydeclared ourMonday TSP positions!

 

[Mike]

imported post

I'm glad I'm not buying in at this current I fund price. :shock:

$14.85... yikes. We'll have our first $15 per share stock fund very soon... wow.

FWIW, the S fund outperformed the I fund this week, even though the foreign markets were open all five days. Everything I've read to this point shows the Euro shooting past $1.35 to perhaps as high as $1.40 before falling back (either due to natural market correction or else due to governments intervening, since European exports are in serious danger of being priced completely out of the market withthis horrible dollar).

I made nice gains this week, so I'm very happy about it.

 

[smine]

imported post

Agreed that buying 75% I at 14.85 seemed pricy. Did it anyhow so fingers crossed:shock:

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Actually the S fund is beating the I fund for the entire month of November, so far. But I may not have gone 75% I fund if I knew it would be up over 1% today. It looked like the Asian and European markets were down this morning. I thought I was being savvy but my timing may not be great here.

I think there could be some profit taking across the board so it was getting something into the G fund that was my main concern. We'll see how it plays out.

I'd love to see a quick two day pullback early next week and and then have the early December seasonality strength kick in. Wishful thinking.

PR - here is the December chart...

Chart provided courtesy of [url]www.sentimentrader.com[/url]

 

[Timer]

imported post

$14.85... yikes. We'll have our first $15 per share stock fund very soon... wow.

Remember when the I fund was less than $15? When was that? Late 2004?
Everything is relative

 

[tsptalk]

imported post

Think this year's 15% gain in the I fund is high? Take a look at the numbers in the 80's for the international indices. Mind boggling.

The EAFE index (I fund) back in the mid 1980's:

1983 +23.69%
1984 + 7.41%
1985 +56.14%
1986 +69.46%
1987 +24.64%
1988 +28.26%

 

[Mike]

imported post

69% :shock::shock::shock:

If my thrift gained that much in a year, I think I'd soil myself.

I'm not going to add or subtract anything from the I-fund between now and the end of the year - I want to take full advantage of the end of the year strength - without exposing myself to high-priced buy-ins.

At the first opportunity, I will be moving that 75% in G back into S... C just isn't worth the trouble anymore (until interest rates go up some more at least).