For those of you who read my account talk thread, you know I moved to Europe this week. Along with the spotty internet connection from the hotel, the time zone change has wreaked havoc on my mental ability to analyze the markets from this side of the pond. For some reason (jet lag) it is very strange to watch the markets from home (after getting off work) but I am optimistic that once I’ve settled into a routine, I’ll be an even better version of myself (as a trader) than I was before.
___
FIRST 3 DAYS: In last week’s blog, I posted the stats for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] three trading days of November, and they showed a strong statistical winning bias for SPX, & W4500, while showing a weak bias for AGG. Posted below are those previous stats, plus Nov 2015’s results. Small cap’s W4500 outpaced all others for the week, perhaps this is a small sign that small caps are ready to lead?
___
MONTHLY: Posted below, for SPX & W4500, when the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] three days of November closed positive, November’s monthly stats are impressive, with 80% wining ratios & strong average returns.
___
WEEKLY: Finishing out the first week of November, week 44 showed positive gains for SPX & W4500, but it was a horrible week for AGG with a -.90% loss. For this week (week 45) we have decent winning ratios across the board, and based off week 44’s negative results for AGG, we show that week 45 has a statistical edge coming off the previous down week.
___
WEEKLY: For W4500, this is the best ranking week of the 13-week 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter. Week 45 has the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best winning ratio, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] best positive average gains, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] best average gains, and 1[SUP]st[/SUP] best negative average gains.
___
DAILY: For November, this week we have trading days 6-10. Both SPX & W4500 show statistical weakness on trading day 7 (this Tuesday) with W4500 showing strength on trading day 9 (this Thursday)
Note: For both SPX & W4500, the average daily winning ratio is about 53% so if you see that SPX or W4500 have a 51% winning ratio (on the daily timeframe) that is actually below average. This knowledge should only be applied to long-term daily charts.
___
DAILY: Going into the days of the week (Monday-Friday) I’ve scaled back from counting the last 21 each, to counting the last 11 each. This will make the data a bit more relevant to the short to mid-term investor and it will also identify trend shifts quickly (when compared to the previous range of data used).
Both Monday & Tuesday are horrible for SPX & W4500 with significantly weaker than average winning ratios and weaker average gains. Meanwhile, Wednesday & Thursday show strong winning ratios & average returns.
___
Statistically speaking, this is still a strong month and should also be a strong week.
Take care and stay invested...Jason
___
FIRST 3 DAYS: In last week’s blog, I posted the stats for the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] three trading days of November, and they showed a strong statistical winning bias for SPX, & W4500, while showing a weak bias for AGG. Posted below are those previous stats, plus Nov 2015’s results. Small cap’s W4500 outpaced all others for the week, perhaps this is a small sign that small caps are ready to lead?
___
MONTHLY: Posted below, for SPX & W4500, when the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] three days of November closed positive, November’s monthly stats are impressive, with 80% wining ratios & strong average returns.
___
WEEKLY: Finishing out the first week of November, week 44 showed positive gains for SPX & W4500, but it was a horrible week for AGG with a -.90% loss. For this week (week 45) we have decent winning ratios across the board, and based off week 44’s negative results for AGG, we show that week 45 has a statistical edge coming off the previous down week.
___
WEEKLY: For W4500, this is the best ranking week of the 13-week 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter. Week 45 has the 3[SUP]rd[/SUP] best winning ratio, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] best positive average gains, 1[SUP]st[/SUP] best average gains, and 1[SUP]st[/SUP] best negative average gains.
___
DAILY: For November, this week we have trading days 6-10. Both SPX & W4500 show statistical weakness on trading day 7 (this Tuesday) with W4500 showing strength on trading day 9 (this Thursday)
Note: For both SPX & W4500, the average daily winning ratio is about 53% so if you see that SPX or W4500 have a 51% winning ratio (on the daily timeframe) that is actually below average. This knowledge should only be applied to long-term daily charts.
___
DAILY: Going into the days of the week (Monday-Friday) I’ve scaled back from counting the last 21 each, to counting the last 11 each. This will make the data a bit more relevant to the short to mid-term investor and it will also identify trend shifts quickly (when compared to the previous range of data used).
Both Monday & Tuesday are horrible for SPX & W4500 with significantly weaker than average winning ratios and weaker average gains. Meanwhile, Wednesday & Thursday show strong winning ratios & average returns.
___
Statistically speaking, this is still a strong month and should also be a strong week.
Take care and stay invested...Jason
