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The pink circle represents our progress for 2015, this will give us an idea of where we fall within the statistical average
Week 3 closed up 1.60% which was above both the total average and positive average returns
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There are 52 weeks this year, for week 4
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For week 4, we have trading days 16-20, plus I've added days 1-3 from February
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For the IFT deadline, we have stats for the 12:00 vs. 16:00 close
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For the last 11 Monday through Fridays
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Statistical trends evolve, which is the primary reason the majority of my stats go back a short 20 years. Having said that, let's take one last look at Week 4's stats only this time, we'll go back to 1950 (the past 64 years).
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In Week 3's Stat blog I mentioned "Since the trading day stats are misaligned, I'm more inclined to believe that week 3's poor historical performance may not play its traditional role." This proved to be the contrarian case, and now the focus will be on how we'll finish out the month, which should setup the public's expectations on how we'll finish out 2015.
I don't want to underscore the importance of this last week. "So goes January, so goes the year" and we have strong statistical evidence to back up that statement. My personal belief is that we will close both the week and the month up, it is a must! Over the past 64 Januaries 61% or 39 of 64 closed up, if we were to close the month down, the statistics for an end of year positive close drop substantially.
Having said all that, I'll happily take a flat slightly positive close, because at the very least this will give us some unanswered questions and that is exactly what the markets like to do best…
Trade hard…Jason
The pink circle represents our progress for 2015, this will give us an idea of where we fall within the statistical average
Week 3 closed up 1.60% which was above both the total average and positive average returns
___
There are 52 weeks this year, for week 4
- We show a 55% winning ratio, which is below average, ranking in a 9-way tie for 26th
- We show .41% average gains, which is above average, ranking 13th
- We show 1.84% average positive gains, which is above average, ranking 19th
- We show -1.35% average negative gains, which is above average, ranking 12th
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For week 4, we have trading days 16-20, plus I've added days 1-3 from February
- The first 2 days (16 & 17) run below average with an average winning ratio and slightly weak average gains
- From then on we get some end & beginning of month volatility
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For the IFT deadline, we have stats for the 12:00 vs. 16:00 close
- If the 12:00 close is up, the 16:00 close shows a 50% winning ratio, no statistical edge
- If the 12:00 close is down, the 16:00 close shows a 40% winning ratio, good odds for buys
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For the last 11 Monday through Fridays
- Mondays show a 45% winning ratio, with -.32% average gains (unchanged due to the previous holiday)
- Tuesdays show a 45% winning ratio, with -.10% average gains (increase)
- Wednesdays show a 45% winning ratio, with .08% average gains (very little change)
- Thursdays show a 82% winning ratio, with .61% average gains (very little change)
- Fridays show a 55% winning ratio, with -.07% average gains (decrease)
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Statistical trends evolve, which is the primary reason the majority of my stats go back a short 20 years. Having said that, let's take one last look at Week 4's stats only this time, we'll go back to 1950 (the past 64 years).
- 1st chart shows collectively, week 4 has a slight above average 56% winning ratio with .34% average gains
- 2nd chart shows when week 3 closed up, week 4 has a strong 67% winning ratio with .77% average gains
___
In Week 3's Stat blog I mentioned "Since the trading day stats are misaligned, I'm more inclined to believe that week 3's poor historical performance may not play its traditional role." This proved to be the contrarian case, and now the focus will be on how we'll finish out the month, which should setup the public's expectations on how we'll finish out 2015.
I don't want to underscore the importance of this last week. "So goes January, so goes the year" and we have strong statistical evidence to back up that statement. My personal belief is that we will close both the week and the month up, it is a must! Over the past 64 Januaries 61% or 39 of 64 closed up, if we were to close the month down, the statistics for an end of year positive close drop substantially.
Having said all that, I'll happily take a flat slightly positive close, because at the very least this will give us some unanswered questions and that is exactly what the markets like to do best…
Trade hard…Jason
