Trading the Stats: Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Good evening

We managed to retrace about 50% of price today, this is the classic setup where the markets want to leave you with questions unanswered. Based off the previous data I filtered last night, and adding to it today's data, the 3rd day's price action (of 59 similar occasions) is in a near dead heat between the upside/downside. You may notice the average positive returns are higher then the negative returns, this is because on 24 Nov, 2008 the markets closed up a whopping 6.47% (day 3 of this single occasion) and with only 59 occasions, this altered the realistic picture.


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For the previous 25/50/100 Wednesdays & Thursdays, Wednesday has a strong positive bias in the short term, but as I warned, the negative returns are significantly higher than the positive returns. As for Thursday, it was a strong positive bias across all three time frames, but the negative returns are slightly stronger than the positive returns.


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For the IFT Cutoff time, Wednesday is a near break even day, with not much to be gleamed from the data. Based off the data reviewed, I expect Wednesday to close flat to slightly positive.

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Wrapping it up with an interesting note, on Monday the NYSE 52 week lows spiked to 146, the last time we saw a spike this high, it ended up marking the November bottom and the beginning of this 6-Month rally we've been fortunate to enjoy.


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Trade safe...Jason

---------------------DISCLAIMER--------------------
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The majority of this data is based off the S&P 500's past prices, typically over the last 20 years. If this data does not come from the S&P 500, then I will state what index it is derived from, otherwise assume it is of the same source. While most of the data is computer generated, much of it is still done by hand and is therefore subject to the occasional human error. Past data does not guarantee future results! We are all grownups here so we should already know we are each individually responsible for our own accounts, so if it doesn't work out, it's your own fault. Occasional I get PMs from newer members, asking me what to do with their accounts, so here's my answer. Find out what DCA is then do it for a long time. In the meantime read, read, read, then practice what you read, then figure out where you screwed up, then start the process all over again.

 

[Bronco07]

Thanks for the analysis JTH

 

[Fran1775]

Looks like another fallout day? Do You think that we are OK with the sentiments survey coming in buy and we'll see the inverse this week or even next weekto bringing new highs?

What do the charts a friend down Wednesday?

 

[JTH]

Sorry for the late reply

If the markets are going to turn around, then it should happen tomorrow, but maybe as late as Tuesday. Wednesdays are usually flat, often recovering the typical turn-around Tuesday. As for the sentiment survey, it is a handy tool to have in your corner, I don't use it, but I am glad when it's on the same side I am