Trader Fred's System questions

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Answer: Trader Fred's System questions

From Trader Fred:

I would have to check, and I probably should one of
these days, but I think there have been about a dozen
market pile-up/release occurrences this year. If one
counts two black diamonds with nearly the same
Gain--Loss values as a single black diamond, then
every one of those dozen occurrences has had a market
release on the fifth or the sixth day. So, if "more
than 5 black diamonds" equals six, then the market
release has always happened by the sixth diamond. What
the system reads after the market release (i.e.,.
after the fifth or sixth market release red diamond)
is not something I track. Unfortunately, as it is
unknown what is causing the market pile-up/release
market pattern, all one can do is make heuristic
observations. It would be nice to do better than that
on something this important. Thanks for asking. I will
see what I can do about understanding it better.

Trader Fred.
 
Thanks Tom. And also say thanks to Fred for prompt answers to all questions posed by members. It gives him a credibility that goes hand in hand with his genuine attempt at making a reliable market timing tool that so far seems to legit.
 
Tom,
More and more I like Trader Fred system. I do have a problem understanding the "C Fund Weakness- Strength Chart" ??
I don't know how to read it.
Any help would be appreciated!
Thanks
Spaf
 
Spaf said:
Tom,
More and more I like Trader Fred system. I do have a problem understanding the "C Fund Weakness- Strength Chart" ??
I don't know how to read it.
Any help would be appreciated!
Thanks
Spaf
Click to expand...
Fred's response...

Thanks for your interest in the TSP Trader system. I
do try to be as clear as I can on the TSP Trader
system page each evening, but the C Fund Weakness-
Strength Chart does seem to be hard for many people
to understand. The aim of the charts on the update is
to help people easily see current market conditions
and trends, essentially at a glance in order to save
them some time.

Obviously, the C Fund Weakness- Strength Chart is
not meeting that goal. I will have to think about how
best to solve it. My inclination right now is to do a
full write up similar to the Relative Strength writeup
(see link below). I will do something as soon as I
can.
Your question is a good one and not the first on
this problem that I need to fix.

http://www.tsptalk.com/system/rel_str.html

thanks,
Trader Fred.
 
It might be helpful to have the last diamond be a different color so it would be easier to see where the chart moved to. I like the chart but sometimes I have to take a few seconds to figure out which way it moved. This is more of a problem recently since it hasn't been making big moves.

Thank you, Fred, for taking the time to put this stuff together for us. I'm retired and not as educated as I should be to be making trading decisions. I appreciate a conservative, analysis-driven approach. I'm one of those who can't stand to see a loss, and I find that I'm always pulling out just as the markets take an upturn. It drives me nuts that I have to make a trade decision without knowing what the result will be.
 
Sunnyskies said:
It might be helpful to have the last diamond be a different color so it would be easier to see where the chart moved to. I like the chart but sometimes I have to take a few seconds to figure out which way it moved. This is more of a problem recently since it hasn't been making big moves.

Thank you, Fred, for taking the time to put this stuff together for us. I'm retired and not as educated as I should be to be making trading decisions. I appreciate a conservative, analysis-driven approach. I'm one of those who can't stand to see a loss, and I find that I'm always pulling out just as the markets take an upturn. It drives me nuts that I have to make a trade decision without knowing what the result will be.
Click to expand...
From Fred .....

You're welcome. I hope it helps.

Thanks for the good suggestion. Yes, you are right. It
would be easier to see where it went today with a
different color diamond. I will use a red diamond to
mark where it went today. Sometimes the red diamond
will cover up where it was yesterday and perhaps the
day before as I will need to make the red diamond from
scratch. So, its size and placement will depend on
what the Microsoft Word graphing software lets me do.
It definitely saves everyone time if today's new
information can be absorbed at a glance.
 
He's good!

The 4 regions (explaination) need to be added somewhere on his daily chart, and there needs to be some way of following the plots (diamonds).

Usn older folks need better care! Som use fingers and toes over a calculator!...:cheesy: Always use a magnifying glass! Ya know ifn you depress the "Ctrl" key the mouse wheel becomes a zoom feature!...:nuts:

I miss old "Tecknobucks" ?? Stox, aka Socks, aka Sox, aka Soks!......:laugh:

tsptalk said:
Here you go Spaf. trader Fred never does anything half-way. :)

http://www.tsptalk.com/system/CFund_StrWeak_pub.doc
Click to expand...
 
tsptalk said:
Here you go Spaf. trader Fred never does anything half-way. :)


http://www.tsptalk.com/system/CFund_StrWeak_pub.doc
Click to expand...
WOW! He's the best I've seen on that etch-a-sketch!!! :D​
2207808Fredsetchasketch.jpg
 
Tom, short of your occassional references in your daily Market Comments, is there anywhere we can read about or follow these experimental/under development models that Trader Fred is working on? Will they be available/accessible later to those who chose to subscribe to the premium service?

I realize that there is a delicate balance between transparency and propriety, and between openness about unproven ideas and professional credibility; but one of the things I like most about this board is the scores of "non-professionals" throwing their ideas out there for criticism and evaluation, and knowing that everyone is constantly striving for improvement of their "system." I am please to know that Trader Fred is continuing to come up with new ideas for improvement, and I think having some visibility on this could only add to his credibility as long as it was clear that certain such things were "experimental." We already all know that what we do with our TSP accounts is our own and only our own responsibility, and even Trader Fred's "proven" system is not guaranteed. Most of us would not blindly make fund allocations based solely on an "experimental" system, but it does help to know that such a new model exists that may add another shred of evidence to other models/data. For example, I'm liking knowing that Trader Fred has an S-system suggesting a short-term play for tomorrow, because it appears to be in agreement with a few other models such as Ebb contrarian, Charmed post-FVC, and the fact that there appears to be such a nice dip to buy today.

Anyway, I hope that such insight will be available along with the standard Trader access, perhaps in a MB type forum in which you indirectly (sort of Charlie's-Angels-esquely as now)--or more ideally Trader Fred himself--interact, answer questions, bounce off ideas, etc.
 
I'm sure Fred will have the data once he decides if it is good enough to use. I'm throwing them out there as an unofficial FYI just to let you know he is developing new ideas. I don't want to start any other thread on it right now. I probably should not even mention the trades while it is still in test phase. I don't want anyone to be confused about whether it is an actual buy signal for the system or not.
 
Paladin said:
Tom,

The C-Fund has shown Market Weakness for about 26 days in a row including the Tuesday Fed Rally (if I'm counting all those triangles correctly). Can you ask Fred what it will take to see some Market Strength again? If the 3% rally on Tuesday didn't budge his indicator, then what will?
Click to expand...
Trader Fred's response:

> Fred what it will take to see some Market Strength
>again?

The TSP Trader system looks for market patterns that
have historically been profitable at least 50% of the
time from their backtesting. The system looks for
these market patterns at the close each day using
about fifty computer programs. One of these programs
is the Market Strength program. It is not stand-alone,
but woven into some of the other programs, and depend
on their results, plus some daily market data (i.e.,
the "input").

It is literally impossible for a human being to
replicate what the computer does each night in one
lifetime. It is also not possible to know ahead of
time, that is predict the future, which Market
Strength input needs to move where to get a Market
Strength pattern that will support the Buy signals
from some of the other fifty submodels.

As mentioned in a previous response, there are
thousands of market patterns, some of which are
profitable, most are not. The fifty TSP Trade system
submodels have mathematically converted some of those
patterns into submodels the computer can run each
evening. There are thousands of market patterns left
to be converted into TSP Trade system submodels. The
number of possible future Market Strength patterns,
some of which would be profitable, most would not,
that would result from inputting imaginary data into
the Market Strength submodel is astronomical (i.e.,
approaches mathematical Infinity).

All fifty TSP Trader system programs look for the
presence tonight of historical patterns that have been
profitable 50% of the time during the backtesting. If
no such pattern is found, then no Buy signal is given.

Inputting imaginary future data sets immediately
results in many future market patterns any one of
which might be the real future market pattern that we
will all experience tommorrow. The TSP Trader system
trys to identify profitable past successful patterns,
not possible future market patterns, some of which
will be profitable, but most will not.

> If the 3% rally on Tuesday didn't budge his
>indicator, then what will?

All market timing models use moving averages. The TSP
Trader system is no different. The effects of
yesterday's rally were incorporated into last evenings
moving average calculations. What the fifty submodels
do with those particular moving average values this
evening or tomorrow evening (etc) with respect to
getting a Buy signal requires a future predication of
a "what if" scenario. As mentioned above, the TSP
Trader system looks for a match between today's market
behavioral patterns and similar market patterns that
historically have been profitable at least half of the
time. Looking ahead is not something the fifty
submodels can do as there is many possible futures
depending on the interplay between and values of the
imaginary input values.

Thanks for the questions,
Trader Fred.
 
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